據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年6月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，彭博新聞社援引花旗集團(tuán)分析師的話報(bào)道稱，由于鋼材、水泥和其他原材料的價(jià)格在供應(yīng)趨緊的情況下不斷攀升，美國頁巖盆地的鉆井商面臨著更高的生產(chǎn)成本。

　　美國專業(yè)財(cái)經(jīng)周刊《巴倫周刊》上周報(bào)導(dǎo)稱，今年迄今基準(zhǔn)鋼制品價(jià)格上漲了差不多60%，過去12個(gè)月大漲了200%。此次基準(zhǔn)鋼制品價(jià)格上漲是由美國經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈推動(dòng)的，但報(bào)告指出，如果價(jià)格高于生產(chǎn)成本，價(jià)格不可能維持太高太久。

　　這可能是大宗商品行業(yè)通常周期的情況，但《巴倫周刊》援引瑞士聯(lián)合銀行分析師Andreas Bokkenhauser的話報(bào)道說，這個(gè)周期是不同的。這個(gè)時(shí)間供給是有限的，所以只要需求強(qiáng)勁，價(jià)格就會(huì)上漲。

　　盡管該領(lǐng)域的大多數(shù)參與者在應(yīng)對(duì)投資者的壓力時(shí)表現(xiàn)出了財(cái)務(wù)紀(jì)律，即優(yōu)先考慮回報(bào)而不是產(chǎn)量，美國頁巖行業(yè)對(duì)鉆井材料和設(shè)備的需求可能會(huì)保持強(qiáng)勁。

　　不管是否遵守財(cái)務(wù)紀(jì)律，在用的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已經(jīng)從去年8月的低谷期增長了兩倍。自今年年初以來，美國的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量增加了100部。上周，貝克休斯公司發(fā)布了一周的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，但長期趨勢(shì)似乎仍在上升。

　　美國能源信息署（EIA）對(duì)5月28日結(jié)束的一周內(nèi)美國石油產(chǎn)量的估計(jì)(最新可獲得的數(shù)據(jù))下降到了平均每天1080萬桶，而2020年2月新冠肺炎疫情大流行沖擊石油需求之前達(dá)到的峰值是1310萬桶/天。

　　然而，上周，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格一度突破每桶70美元大關(guān)，這可能會(huì)促使更多石油公司即使油價(jià)上漲仍會(huì)增加鉆探活動(dòng)。到底有多少石油公司會(huì)這么做還有待觀察。花旗集團(tuán)分析師稱，他們預(yù)計(jì)今年該行業(yè)的鉆探活動(dòng)增加將達(dá)到12%。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Raw Material Supply Crunch Hits U.S. Shale Oil

　　As the prices of steel, cement and other raw materials climb higher and higher amid tightening supply, drillers in the U.S. shale patch are facing higher production costs, Bloomberg reports, citing Citigroup analysts.

　　Benchmark steel prices have gained as much as 60 percent in the year to date and a whopping 200 percent over the past 12 months, Barron’s reported last week. The rally was driven by the economic rebound in the United States, but the report noted that prices could not stay too high for too long, not if they are above the cost of production.

　　That may be the case with usual cycles in the commodity industry but, Barron’s noted, citing UBS analyst Andreas Bokkenhauser, this cycle is different. This time supply is limited, so prices have nowhere to go but up as long as demand is strong.

　　Demand for drilling materials and equipment will likely remain robust in the U.S. shale sector despite the financial discipline most players in that field have been demonstrating in response to investor pressure to prioritize returns over output.

　　Discipline or not, the number of active drilling rigs has risen twofold since the trough of last August. Since the start of this year, the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. has risen by 100. Last week, Baker Hughes reported a weekly decline, but the longer-term trend appears to remain upward.

　　The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending May 28—the last available data—slipped to an average of 10.8 million barrels per day compared to the 13.1 million bpd peak production reached in February 2020, before the pandemic crushed oil demand.

　　Yet last week, WTI briefly breached the $70-per-barrel threshold, which might motivate more companies to boost drilling activity, even if prices are higher. Just how many companies would do that remains to be seen. The Citi analysts said they saw inflation in the sector hit 12 percent this year.

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