據今日油價網站1月21日消息 美國能源信息署（EIA）周五表示，隨著石油和天然氣鉆探效率的持續提高以及足夠高的油價將支持包括煤炭在內的所有化石燃料產量的增加，美國的化石燃料產量預計將在2023年創歷史新高。

在2020年疫情來襲下降后，化石燃料、天然氣、原油和煤炭的生產總量在2021年上升了2%，達到了77.14萬億英熱單位。美國政府預計，美國化石燃料產量今年和明年都將繼續增長，超過2019年的產量水平，并在2023年達到新的紀錄。

去年，干氣占美國化石燃料總產量的最大份額，為46%。原油占30%，煤炭占15%，天然氣液（NGPLs）占9%。EIA稱，這些份額將在2023年前保持不變。

政府估計，去年干氣產量增長了2%，并預測鉆井效率和新井產量的提高將有助于使2022年的產量增加3%，2023年增加2%。

據估計，由于天然氣價格上漲，發電需求增加，去年煤炭產量增長了7%。今年，隨著燃煤發電廠重建庫存水平，煤炭產量將增長6%。EIA稱，到2023年，隨著電力行業對煤炭的需求下降，煤炭產量將僅增長1%。

美國原油產量在2021年下降了1%，2022年將增長6%，2023年將增長為5%。

EIA表示：“我們預測，2022年和2023年，原油價格將保持在足夠高的水平，以鼓勵在用鉆機數量的增長和鉆井效率的持續提高。”

EIA在其1月份的《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，美國原油產量將超過疫情前的水平，并達到新的年平均水平，這主要是由于頁巖產量的激增，因為更高的價格激勵生產商鉆更多的井來抵消下降率。美國明年的原油平均日產量將達到1240萬桶。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

U.S. Fossil Fuel Production Set To Hit Record Highs In 2023

America’s production of fossil fuels is expected to hit a record high in 2023, as continued improvements in drilling efficiency in oil and gas and high enough oil prices will support increased output of all fossil fuels, including coal, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday.

The combined production of fossil fuels—natural gas, crude oil, and coal—rose in 2021 by 2 percent to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units, following a decline in 2020, when the pandemic hit. The administration expects U.S. fossil fuel production to continue rising both this year and next, exceeding 2019 production levels and reaching a new record in 2023.

Last year, dry natural gas accounted for the largest share, 46 percent, of the total U.S. fossil fuel production. Crude oil accounted for 30 percent, coal for 15 percent, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9 percent. Those shares to remain similar through 2023, the EIA said.

Dry natural gas production rose by 2 percent last year in 2021, the administration estimates, and predicts that improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023.

Coal production last year is estimated to have jumped by 7 percent due to higher demand for electricity generation on the back of rising natural gas prices. This year, coal production is set to rise by 6 percent as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. In 2023, coal production will rise by only 1 percent as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines, the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production, which fell by 1 percent in 2021, is set for a 6-percent increase in 2022 and another 5 percent rise in 2023.

“We forecast that, in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency,” the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels and reach a new annual average high, driven by a jump in shale output as higher prices incentivize producers to drill more wells to offset decline rates, the EIA said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). America’s crude oil production is set to average 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year.

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