據(jù)伍德麥肯茲4月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，在阿爾弗雷德·丁尼生(Alfred Lord Tennyson)的詩中，可怕的巨型烏賊長期沉睡在海底，處于“古老的、無夢(mèng)的、無意識(shí)的”睡眠中，直到它突然醒來，咆哮著浮出水面。美國天然氣市場(chǎng)的情況有點(diǎn)類似，自2009年以來，基準(zhǔn)Henry Hub天然氣均價(jià)約為3.30美元/百萬英熱單位，很少突破5美元/百萬英熱單位。但本周，近月期貨價(jià)格自2008年以來首次突破8美元/ 百萬英熱單位。

盡管天然氣價(jià)格在周四晚間迅速回落，降至7美元/百萬英熱單位以下，但加速飆升突顯出市場(chǎng)的新趨勢(shì)。美國天然氣的供應(yīng)側(cè)和需求側(cè)的變化結(jié)合在一起，降低了市場(chǎng)靈活性，增加了價(jià)格波動(dòng)性。有充分的理由認(rèn)為，目前相對(duì)較高的價(jià)格不會(huì)長期持續(xù)下去，但至少在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，肯定有可能出現(xiàn)更高的峰值。

在需求方面，市場(chǎng)缺乏彈性的部分原因是燃煤發(fā)電能力的減少。已經(jīng)有一波已經(jīng)達(dá)到經(jīng)濟(jì)壽命的燃煤電廠被關(guān)閉，這往往是由于環(huán)境法規(guī)和企業(yè)排放目標(biāo)推動(dòng)的。從2015年到2020年，美國每年平均損失11千兆瓦的燃煤發(fā)電能力。

這意味著，煤炭對(duì)天然氣價(jià)格的限制能力減弱了。傳統(tǒng)意義上，如果天然氣價(jià)格上漲到足夠高的水平，發(fā)電企業(yè)就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而燃燒更多煤炭，使市場(chǎng)達(dá)到平衡。煤炭產(chǎn)能損失意味著緩沖已經(jīng)被侵蝕，低庫存導(dǎo)致其影響力進(jìn)一步被削弱。

與此同時(shí)，北美天然氣市場(chǎng)與世界其他地區(qū)聯(lián)系日益緊密。自從2016年Cheniere能源公司從路易斯安那州Sabine Pass運(yùn)輸?shù)谝慌浳镆詠恚夯烊粴膺M(jìn)口增長與全球趨勢(shì)聯(lián)系在一起。當(dāng)全球天然氣市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)過剩時(shí)，就像2020年夏季那樣，美國液化天然氣出口下降，壓低了北美價(jià)格。

當(dāng)全球市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)緊張時(shí)，就像今天這樣，美國液化天然氣出口國滿負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。伍德麥肯茲美洲天然氣團(tuán)隊(duì)研究主管尤金?金(Eugene Kim)表示，這引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂，即美國天然氣存儲(chǔ)量是否足以維持到明年冬天，這加大了價(jià)格上行壓力。

與此同時(shí)，在供應(yīng)方面，生產(chǎn)商對(duì)高油價(jià)的反應(yīng)在許多情況下受到限制，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)承諾維持資本紀(jì)律、償還債務(wù)和向投資者返還現(xiàn)金。此前，在海恩斯維爾頁巖生產(chǎn)天然氣的康斯托克資源公司(Comstock Resources)就是一個(gè)很好的例子。在當(dāng)前天然氣價(jià)格下，該公司正在產(chǎn)生自由現(xiàn)金流，盡管其已經(jīng)對(duì)沖了大約50%的產(chǎn)量。該公司計(jì)劃將債務(wù)與調(diào)整后收益比率從2020年的3.8倍大幅降至今年的1.5倍。該公司宣布，將利用部分現(xiàn)金流，在2025年贖回2.45億美元優(yōu)先債券，收益率為7.5%。該公司表示，一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)了杠桿率目標(biāo)，將致力于向股東返還資本。與此同時(shí)，該公司計(jì)劃今年平均總產(chǎn)量增長約為2%-7%。

勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的資本約束意味著，美國4月份天然氣產(chǎn)量僅比2021年4月高出約3%。

之所以認(rèn)為目前的市場(chǎng)狀況將是有時(shí)間限制的，是因?yàn)槊绹杂写罅刻烊粴鈨?chǔ)量，可以以相對(duì)較低的成本生產(chǎn)。尤金?金(Eugene Kim)表示，“從根本上決定美國天然氣長期價(jià)格的，是需要引入市場(chǎng)以滿足需求的邊際天然氣成本。得益于豐富的低成本天然氣資源，Henry Hub基本價(jià)格接近3美元/百萬英熱單位，而目前市場(chǎng)價(jià)格高達(dá)8美元/百萬英熱單位”。

盡管如此，現(xiàn)在天然氣市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)“覺醒”，可能還需要一段時(shí)間才能再次進(jìn)入“休眠”狀態(tài)，煤炭替代天然氣的可能性只會(huì)下降。美國目前的燃煤發(fā)電能力約為200吉瓦伍德麥肯茲預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年，這一數(shù)字將降至約9000萬千瓦。在同一時(shí)期，風(fēng)能和太陽能預(yù)計(jì)將迅速增長，這可能會(huì)造成天然氣市場(chǎng)因產(chǎn)量變化而出現(xiàn)額外的失衡。會(huì)影響管理天然氣價(jià)格波動(dòng)的投資，包括地下儲(chǔ)存的投資，可能看起來越來越有吸引力。

油田服務(wù)集團(tuán)哈里伯頓(Halliburton)報(bào)告稱，第一季度收入增長24%，調(diào)整后收益增長44%，并對(duì)今年剩余時(shí)間里的前景表示樂觀。該公司首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?米勒(Jeff Miller)表示，“我們看到，北美整個(gè)油氣價(jià)值鏈都存在嚴(yán)重供應(yīng)緊張。在設(shè)備市場(chǎng)幾乎售罄的情況下，大宗商品價(jià)格的支撐和客戶需求的增強(qiáng)，預(yù)計(jì)將推動(dòng)完井作業(yè)和生產(chǎn)部門的利潤率擴(kuò)大”。

美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備理事會(huì)(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))最新能源調(diào)查顯示，包括俄克拉何馬州、科羅拉多州和懷俄明州在內(nèi)的聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備區(qū)的石油生產(chǎn)商表示，在平均每桶62美元的原油價(jià)格下鉆井是有利可圖的，當(dāng)價(jià)格到達(dá)每桶86美元，就可以大幅增加活動(dòng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下：

The US natural gas market wakes up

The Kraken, the monstrous giant squid in Alfred Lord Tennyson’s poem, lies for long ages at the bottom of the ocean in “ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep”, until suddenly it wakes and rises roaring to the surface. The US natural gas market has been a bit like that. Since 2009, benchmark Henry Hub gas has averaged about $3.30 per million British Thermal Units, and has only rarely spiked above $5. But this week, the front month futures price went above $8 / mmBTU, for the first time since 2008.

Although gas prices quickly fell back — the futures were back below $7 / mmBTU on Thursday evening — the price spike has highlighted the new dynamics in the market. Changes on both the supply side and the demand side for US gas are combining to reduce flexibility and increase price volatility. There are good reasons to think that the current (relatively) high prices will not last in the long term. But for a while at least, further spikes are definitely possible.

On the demand side, the inflexibility in the market is being created in part by the loss of coal-fired power generation capacity. There has been a wave of shutdowns of coal-fired plants that have reached the end of their economic lives, often hastened by environmental regulations and corporate emissions goals. The US lost an average of 11 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity every year between 2015 and 2020.

That means coal is less able to act to put a cap on gas prices. Traditionally, if gas prices rose high enough, generators would switch to burning more coal, bringing the market into balance. The loss of coal capacity means that buffer has been eroded. Low thermal coal stockpiles have weakened it further.

At the same time, North America’s gas market is becoming increasingly connected to the rest of the world. once largely sealed off in splendid isolation, it has been linked to global trends by the growth of LNG imports since Cheniere Energy shipped its first cargo from Sabine Pass Louisiana in 2016. When the global gas market is oversupplied, as it was in the summer of 2020, US LNG exports drop, driving down prices in North America.

When global markets are tight, as they are today, US LNG exporters run at full capacity. That has been stoking concerns over whether gas in storage in the US will be adequate going into next winter, contributing to the upward pressure on prices, says Eugene Kim, a research director on Wood Mackenzie’s Americas gas team.

On the supply side, meanwhile, producers’ responses to high prices are being constrained in many cases by companies’ commitments to maintaining capital discipline, paying down debt and returning cash to investors. There was a good example of this last week from Comstock Resources, which produces gas in the Haynesville Shale. It is generating free cash at current gas prices, even though it has hedged about 50% of its production. It is planning a steep reduction in its debt, from 3.8 times adjusted earnings in 2020 to 1.5 times this year, and announced last week that it would use some of its cash flow to redeem US$245 million of 7.5% senior notes, due 2025. once its leverage ratio target has been achieved, the company says, it will aim to return capital to shareholders. Meanwhile it is planning for average overall production growth of roughly 2-7% this year.

That capital discipline among E&P companies means that US gas production this month is running only about 3% higher than in April 2021.

The reason to think that current market conditions will be time limited is that the US still has very large gas reserves that can be produced at relatively low cost. “What sets the long-term price of US gas fundamentally is the marginal gas molecule required to be brought into the marketplace to meet demand,” Eugene Kim says. “Blessed with plentiful low-cost gas resources, the fundamental price of Henry Hub is closer to $3/mmBTU, rather than the current market prices that have been as high as $8/mmBTU.”

Still, now the gas market has been woken up, it may be a while before it goes back to sleep again. The availability of coal as an alternative to gas is only going to decline. The US today has about 200 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that by 2030, that will have dropped to only about 90 GW. Over the same period, wind and solar power are expected to grow rapidly, creating a threat of additional gas market imbalances caused by variations in their output. Investments to help manage gas price volatility, including underground storage, may look increasingly attractive.

In brief

Halliburton, the oilfield services group, reported a 24% jump in revenues and a 44% increase in adjusted earnings for the first quarter, and gave an upbeat view of its prospects for the rest of the year. Chief executive Jeff Miller said: “We see significant tightness across the entire oil and gas value chain in North America. Supportive commodity prices and strengthening customer demand against an almost sold-out equipment market are expected to drive expansion in Completion and Production division margins.”

Oil producers in the Federal Reserve district that includes Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming say they need on average a crude price of $62 per barrel for drilling to be profitable, but $86 per barrel for a substantial increase in activity, according to the latest energy survey from the Kansas City Fed.