據美國鉆井網站報道，氫氣在世界能源系統的脫碳過程中起著至關重要的作用，但氫氣攝取速度太慢。獨立能源咨詢和認證機構挪威船級社DNV在6月14日發表的一份最新報告稱，各國政府需要采取緊急、重大的政策干預措施。 

DNV在題為《2050年氫氣預測》報告中預測，2030年氫氣在能源結構中的占比僅為0.5%，到2050年將占5%。 然而，要實現《巴黎協定》的目標，到本世紀中葉，氫氣攝取量需要增加兩倍，才能滿足15%的能源需求。

DNV集團總裁兼首席執行官埃里克森表示：“對于航空、航海和高溫制造業等無法電氣化的行業來說，氫氣是必不可少的，因此應該優先考慮這些行業。” “現行政策與氫氣的重要性不符。他們還需要支持可再生能源發電和碳捕獲和存儲的規模，這是生產低碳氫氣的關鍵要素。” 

根據《2050年氫氣預測》，到本世紀中葉，以電力為基礎的綠色氫氣（利用電解槽將氫從水中分離出來）將成為主要的生產形式，占總產量的72%。這將需要過剩的可再生電力來驅動一個容量為3100吉瓦的電解槽。這是目前太陽能和風能總裝機容量的兩倍多。  

藍氫是一種從天然氣中提取并捕獲碳排放的物質，它在短期內將發揮更大的作用(到2030年約占總產量的30%)，但由于可再生能源產能的增加和價格的下降，其競爭力將下降。

根據DNV的預測，從現在到2050年，全球用于能源目的的氫氣生產支出將達到6.8萬億美元，另外還有1800億美元用于氫氣管道，5300億美元用于建造和運營氨氣終端。  

考慮到成本因素，全球超過50%的氫氣管道將從天然氣管道改造而來，因為改造管道的成本預計僅占新建設成本的10%～35%。 氫氣將通過管道在國內和國家之間進行中等距離輸送，但在各大陸之間穿行仍為難題。全球氫氣貿易也將受到船舶運輸液化氫氣的高成本和氫氣能量密度低特性的限制。氫氣的衍生物氨氣能夠更穩定，可以更容易通過船舶運輸，將在全球進行交易。 

早期氫氣的攝取將由難以減弱的高溫生產過程主導，例如目前使用煤和天然氣的鋼鐵生產。氨氣和甲醇等氫氣衍生物是船舶和航空等重型運輸工具脫碳的關鍵，但根據DNV的預測，這些燃料要到21世紀30年代才會規模化。

氫氣不會在乘用車上得到普及，在發電上的普及也很有限。用于建筑物供暖的氫氣不會在全球范圍內普及，但會在一些已經擁有廣泛天然氣基礎設施的地區看到早期的普及。 

“擴大氫價值鏈將需要管理安全風險和公眾接受度，以及就業政策，以使氫氣項目具有競爭力和可獲利。我們需要在能源系統層面進行規劃，使社會能夠擁抱氫氣帶來的緊急脫碳機會。”埃里克森補充說。  

不同地區對氫氣的攝取有很大差異，政策影響很大。到2050年，歐洲將率先實現氫氣在能源結構中的占比達到11%，因為相關政策既啟動了氫氣生產的規模，又刺激了終端使用。

經合組織太平洋地區（2050年氫能源占能源結構的8%）和北美地區（7%）也有推動供應端的戰略、目標和資金，但碳價格較低，具體目標和政策較少。大中華區（6%）緊隨其后，最近對到 2035年的資金和氫氣前景做出了更清晰的說明，同時擴大了全國排放交易計劃。到2050年，這四個地區總共將消耗全球用于能源目的氫氣需求的三分之二。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Hydrogen Could Be A Missed Opportunity Of The Energy Transition

Hydrogen has a crucial role in decarbonizing the world’s energy system, but uptake will be too slow. Governments need to make urgent, significant policy interventions, according to a new report by DNV.

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century.

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing, and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.”

According to Hydrogen Forecast by 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolyzers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyzer capacity of 3,100 gigawatts. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today.

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop.

Global spending on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be $6.8 trillion, with an additional $180 billion spent on hydrogen pipelines and $530 billion on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts.

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs. Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but not between continents. Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship transport and the low energy density of hydrogen. The hydrogen derivative ammonia, which is more stable and can be more readily transported by ship, will be traded globally.

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts.

Hydrogen will not see an uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating buildings will not scale globally but will see early uptake in some regions that already have an extensive gas infrastructure.

“Scaling hydrogen value chains will require managing safety risk and public acceptance, as well as employment policies to make hydrogen projects competitive and bankable. We need to plan at the level of energy systems, enabling societies to embrace the urgent decarbonization opportunities presented by hydrogen,” added Eriksen.

The uptake of hydrogen will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy. Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050, as enabling policies both kickstart the scaling of hydrogen production and stimulate end-use.

OECD Pacific (hydrogen 8% of the energy mix in 2050) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon prices and less concrete targets and policies. Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme. These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.