???? 據(jù)2月24日Investing.com報(bào)道，牛頓定律顯示，上升和下降是相對(duì)的，原油價(jià)格也挺過(guò)了一次又一次致命的考驗(yàn)。不過(guò)，新冠肺炎疫苗推出的速度遠(yuǎn)不理想，加上美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的脆弱性，讓看漲石油的人士感到不安。
????值得注意的是，與一年前相比，全球駕車出行、乘飛機(jī)出行和乘船旅行的人數(shù)持續(xù)減少，因此，做長(zhǎng)期石油投資的投資者對(duì)汽油、航空燃油和重油需求疲軟絲毫不關(guān)心。自1月底以來(lái)，美國(guó)原油每周都在減少，根據(jù)政府相關(guān)政策，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月煉油商將有更多的需求，因此原油庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)下降。
????除了中國(guó)和印度，在某種程度上，世界其他地區(qū)，特別是美國(guó)，煉油商的潛在需求超過(guò)了最終燃料用戶的需求。然而，原油和汽油等燃料產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格都處于疫情爆發(fā)前的高點(diǎn)，但這并不是說(shuō)石油交易商完全忽視了市場(chǎng)上的所有負(fù)面因素。
????上周五，基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了自1月中旬以來(lái)的最大單日跌幅，美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格下跌2%，倫敦布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌1.6%，原因是人們擔(dān)心，德克薩斯州煉廠生產(chǎn)的中斷，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致煉油廠停產(chǎn)，從而堆積原油庫(kù)存。
????但這樣的價(jià)格下跌很少，與10月底以來(lái)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油和布倫特原油價(jià)格暴漲至少70%的巨大漲幅相比，相差甚遠(yuǎn)。
????要知道，每一次下滑都伴隨著更高的反彈。
????通常情況下，任何大幅下跌的價(jià)格都會(huì)被隨后一兩個(gè)交易日更大的反彈所抵消。例如，周一WTI對(duì)美國(guó)1.9萬(wàn)億美元疫情救助法案的樂(lè)觀情緒大漲4%，蓋過(guò)了上周五的拋售。
????事實(shí)上，正是對(duì)這一刺激措施的預(yù)期，債券購(gòu)買熱潮和接近零的利率，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了大量廉價(jià)資金。其結(jié)果是，從股票到幾乎所有種類的大宗商品，從即期交易到對(duì)沖基金和機(jī)構(gòu)基金經(jīng)理的各類投資者所產(chǎn)生的購(gòu)買，都出現(xiàn)了壓倒性的反彈。
????由于大宗商品的漲勢(shì)一直是靠這筆豐厚的收入支撐的，因此，當(dāng)流入市場(chǎng)的資金達(dá)到投資者心目中設(shè)定的某種暫時(shí)性峰值時(shí)，大宗商品的漲勢(shì)可能也會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊。
????實(shí)際上，一旦刺激計(jì)劃在國(guó)會(huì)獲得通過(guò)，油價(jià)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)回調(diào)。更糟糕的是，如果該法案由于某種原因在參議院擱淺。在那之前，可以認(rèn)為，不會(huì)發(fā)生任何有意義或長(zhǎng)期的石油拋售。
????除了讓盡可能多的美國(guó)人接種疫苗外，拜登一直高度關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案，將其列為他上任100天內(nèi)的首要議程項(xiàng)目。
????3月中旬的刺激目標(biāo)可能是油價(jià)上漲的信號(hào)。參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)將3月14日定為拜登的疫情法案簽署為法律的目標(biāo)。這也可能是油價(jià)上漲達(dá)到短期峰值，并開(kāi)始大幅回落的目標(biāo)。
????當(dāng)然，這些都不是鐵板釘釘?shù)臅r(shí)期，未來(lái)三周的能源價(jià)格也可能朝任何一個(gè)方向走。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)預(yù)計(jì)，到第一季度末，布倫特原油價(jià)格將升至每桶70美元。與此同時(shí)，高盛(Goldman Sachs)認(rèn)為，到第三季度，全球原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶75美元。
????未來(lái)一兩周潛在的原油庫(kù)存增加可能會(huì)對(duì)油價(jià)構(gòu)成壓力，尤其是如果德克薩斯州的煉油廠需要比預(yù)期更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間才能從30年來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的暴風(fēng)雪中復(fù)蘇，將對(duì)美國(guó)能源造成嚴(yán)重沖擊。
????值得一提的是，新的歐佩克+協(xié)議，以及每桶65美元的油價(jià)對(duì)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響。
????俄羅斯已經(jīng)在推動(dòng)下周對(duì)擴(kuò)大后的歐佩克+的生產(chǎn)協(xié)議進(jìn)行月度審議時(shí)大幅提高產(chǎn)量，莫斯科是該組織的主要盟友。當(dāng)歐盟將于4月召開(kāi)會(huì)議，制定新的產(chǎn)量水平時(shí)，沙特阿拉伯將不可避免地想要取消額外減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶的做法。
????從背景來(lái)看，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯一直能夠控制住競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，并堅(jiān)持承諾減產(chǎn)?？偠灾?，歐佩克+仍保留著超過(guò)600萬(wàn)桶/天的石油儲(chǔ)備產(chǎn)能。因此，根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(International Energy Agency)最新的月度報(bào)告，全球石油庫(kù)存將在年中回到5年平均水平。去年夏天，隨著需求大幅下降，全球石油庫(kù)存一度創(chuàng)下歷史紀(jì)錄。
????歐佩克+的增產(chǎn)可能刺激美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商在一年內(nèi)首次提高產(chǎn)量，自2020年3月創(chuàng)下1310萬(wàn)桶/天的紀(jì)錄以來(lái)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量一直在下降。Smith指出，雖然頁(yè)巖鉆井公司仍處于現(xiàn)金節(jié)約模式，但WTI和布倫特原油價(jià)格接近每桶65美元的情況肯定會(huì)鼓勵(lì)他們?cè)黾赢a(chǎn)量。
????如果油價(jià)進(jìn)入拋售階段，SK Dixit駐印度Kolkata的分析師Sunil Kumar Dixit給出了一些線索，他認(rèn)為WTI將低至每桶51.60美元，布倫特原油低至每桶58.30美元
????王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com
????原文如下：
????Close Of Stimulus Window Might Be Cue For Oil Correction
????Newton’s Law says what goes up, must come down. Those long oil don’t want to hear that, of course.
????Like the proverbial multi-lived cat, the rally in crude oil has outlasted one fatal test after another.
????The far from desirable pace of the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and the fragility of the US recovery from the pandemic are two examples of cautionary developments that have not bothered oil bulls one bit.
????What’s notable is the indifference shown by the long-oil community to the anemic demand for gasoline, jet fuel and heavy fuel oils as the world continues to take fewer drives, flights and cruises, respectively, compared to a year ago.
????This same group instead points to the weekly drawdowns in US crude seen since the end of January. The declines in crude inventories are occurring as refiners max out fuel products in anticipation of more demand in the coming months based on the immunization targets of the Biden administration and other governments.
????Except for China—and to an extent, India—the rest of the world, especially the United States, is seeing more implied demand from refiners than demand ultimately from end-users of fuels. Yet, prices of both crude and fuel products like gasoline are trading at pre-pandemic highs.
????This isn’t to say oil traders have completely ignored all the negatives in the market.
????Last Friday, benchmark prices fell their most in a single day since mid-January, with US West Texas Intermediate crude losing 2% and London’s Brent 1.6%, on worries that the Arctic blast that disrupted production in Texas could extend to refinery outages that pile up crude stocks.
????But such price declines are few and far between the otherwise humongous gains that have bloated the value of WTI and Brent by at least 70% since the end of October.
????Each Slide Followed By Even Higher Rally
????Often, any considerable slide in prices is offset by an even greater rally in the subsequent session or two. Friday’s selloff, for instance, was eclipsed by Monday’s 4% jump in WTI on optimism over Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill.
????In fact, it’s expectations over this stimulus, combined with the bond-buying bonanza and near-zero interest rates of the Federal Reserve since the start of the pandemic, that has created a flood of cheap money in the markets. The result has been an overpowering rally in equities to commodities of almost all kinds, from buying generated by investors of all types, from day-traders to hedge funds and institutional money managers.
????Since this gravy train is what has been keeping the commodities rally chugging, it’s likely that its run might also hit a bump when the flow of money to the markets reaches some sort of a temporal peak set in the minds of investors.
????In practical terms, a correction in oil might be triggered once the window for Biden’s stimulus closes with its passage through Congress. Or worse, if the bill falters for some reason in the Senate, where Democrats backing the president have an effective majority of just one. Until then, it might be safe to assume that no meaningful or prolonged selloff in oil will happen.
????Biden has been laser-focused on the stimulus bill, making it the number one agenda item of his first 100 days in office, aside from immunizing as many Americans as possible. And the cheerleaders in both commodities and on Wall Street—notwithstanding the NASDAQ-led selloff
????of the past two days—have thrown their lot in with the president.
????Mid-March Target For Stimulus Might Be Cue For Oil
????Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has set Mar. 14 as his target for Biden’s COVID-19 bill to be signed into law. That might also be the target for the oil rally to reach a temporal peak, and for an appreciable retreat to set in.
????Of course, none of this is cast in stone, and energy prices could go either way over the next three weeks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Brent up as high as $70 by the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, thinks the global crude benchmark will reach $75 by the third quarter.
????Potential crude stockpile builds over the next week or two might weigh on oil prices, especially if refineries in Texas take longer than expected to rebound from the worst snowstorm in three decades to hit the heartland of US energy.
????There’s also the other big question on what the US and Iran could achieve over the next few weeks in negotiations for Tehran to once again export its oil to the world without Trump-era sanctions.
????Of course, the big “if” for this will be whether the Islamic Republic will first meet Biden’s demand to stop all uranium-enrichment—i.e. nuclear-bomb making—efforts to be considered for a deal by the White House.
????
????“This increases our conviction in a tight oil market this summer, when we expect OECD inventories to normalize,” it added, referring to stockpiles in the world’s most developed countries.????Adding To Worries: New OPEC+ Deal; What $65 Oil Could Do For US Shale
????The OPEC+ output referenced by Goldman Sachs circles back to the observations made earlier this week by my colleague Geoffrey Smith on the seemingly endless oil rally.
????That article notes that Russia is already pushing for a big increase in output at next week’s monthly review of the production pact of the enlarged Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC+, which Moscow is a leading ally of.
????When the bloc meets in April to set new output levels, its leader Saudi Arabia will inevitably want to reverse a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels a day that the kingdom enacted to preserve a unity that was already cracking a month ago.
????For context, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been able to keep their rivalry under control and have stuck to their pledged output cuts. In all, OPEC+ is still withholding over 6 million barrels a day of oil production capacity in reserve. As a result, world stockpiles, which hit record levels as demand plummeted last summer, are due to be back at their five-year average by the middle of the year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report.
????OPEC+ increases could spur US shale drillers to raise for the first time in a year their production, which has been on the wane since hitting a record high of 13.1 million bpd in March 2020. While shale drillers are still in cash conservation mode, the sight of both WTI and Brent trading at near $65 would definitely be an encouragement to add barrels, Smith noted.
????Should oil enter a selloff phase, how low could it go technically?
????Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, gives some clues, pegging WTI to as low of $51.60 and Brent at $58.30.
