???? 據(jù)OE網(wǎng)站2月23日報(bào)道，據(jù)伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）稱，盡管目前海上浮式風(fēng)力發(fā)電裝機(jī)發(fā)電量較低，但它仍可能成為亞太地區(qū)風(fēng)電開發(fā)的下一個(gè)前沿領(lǐng)域，幾乎具有無限的潛力。如果算上早期規(guī)劃階段的項(xiàng)目，該領(lǐng)域的總投資可能達(dá)到580億美元。

????一個(gè)重要的海上浮式(風(fēng)能)技術(shù)市場正在亞洲崛起。日本、韓國開發(fā)商已經(jīng)宣布了開發(fā)關(guān)鍵示范項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃，盡管與傳統(tǒng)的固底技術(shù)相比，其部署規(guī)模仍然有限。

????亞太地區(qū)目前預(yù)計(jì)新增海上風(fēng)電裝機(jī)發(fā)電量為26吉瓦，海上浮式風(fēng)電裝機(jī)發(fā)電量僅占6%。

????伍德麥肯茲的首席分析師羅伯特·勞（Robert Liew）表示，在日本，韓國，這1.56吉瓦的新增海上浮式發(fā)電量將需要至少80億美元的投資。如果我們考慮在早期規(guī)劃階段增加的9吉瓦項(xiàng)目管道， 總投資機(jī)會(huì)價(jià)值可能高達(dá)580億美元。

????伍德麥肯茲稱，由于傳統(tǒng)火力發(fā)電廠的項(xiàng)目壽命即將結(jié)束，并且新建煤炭和核能的機(jī)會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重限制，因此對于這些市場而言，保持電力供應(yīng)是一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)。 東北亞的三個(gè)市場在2020年至2030年期間將面臨總計(jì)89吉瓦的熱電和核電退役計(jì)劃。

????Liew表示，這些市場中的政府越來越希望使用可再生能源來填補(bǔ)供應(yīng)缺口，但是由于土地的限制，可擴(kuò)展的選擇受到了限制。 浮式海上風(fēng)電開始受到越來越多的關(guān)注，但是高昂的成本仍然是廣泛采用該技術(shù)的主要障礙。為了確保海上浮式風(fēng)電的長期可持續(xù)性，價(jià)格必須大幅下降，至少與新建天然氣發(fā)電比具有競爭力。

????由于歷史記錄有限，只有21兆瓦(MW)的浮式示范機(jī)組運(yùn)行，因此亞太市場的項(xiàng)目成本存在很大的不確定性。目前，日本政府估計(jì)，目前海上浮式資本支出成本可能高達(dá)1000萬美元/兆瓦，但如果降低到400萬美元/兆瓦，則在商業(yè)上是可行的，而接地海上資本支出成本為2-3美元。 到2030年，亞太陸上風(fēng)電資本支出的平均成本為150萬美元/兆瓦。

????郝芬 譯自 OE

????原文如下：

????Floating Offshore Wind: The Next Big Thing for Asia Pacific?

????Floating offshore wind, despite the currently low installed capacity, could be the next frontier in wind power development in the Asia Pacific with almost limitless potential, says Wood Mackenzie, adding the total investment in the sector could be worth US$58 billion, counting the projects in the early planning stages.

????"A significant market for floating offshore [wind] technology is emerging in Asia. Developers in Japan, South Korea and have announced plans to develop key demonstration projects, although the scale of deployment is still limited compared to conventional fixed-bottom technology."

????Floating offshore wind accounts for just 6% capacity of the 26 gigawatts (GW) of new offshore capacity expected in the current decade in the Asia Pacific.

????Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst Robert Liew said: "This 1.56 GW of new floating offshore capacity in Japan, South Korea, and will require investments of at least US$8 billion. If we consider the additional 9 GW project pipeline in early planning stages, total investment opportunities could be worth up to US$58 billion."

????Maintaining power supply is a key challenge for these markets as legacy thermal plants reach the end of their project life and opportunity for new-build coal and nuclear are severely limited, Wood Mackenzie said. The three Northeast Asian markets face projected thermal and nuclear capacity retirements totaling 89 GW from 2020 to 2030.

????Liew said: “Governments in these markets are increasingly looking to renewables to fill the supply gap, but due to land constraints, scalable options are limited. Floating offshore wind is starting to gain more attention but the high cost remains a major barrier to widespread adoption of this technology.

????“To ensure the long-term sustainability of floating offshore wind, prices must come down significantly to at least be competitive with new-build gas power.”

????With a limited track record and only 21 megawatts (MW) of operating floating demonstration units, there is high uncertainty over project costs in Asia Pacific markets. For now, the Japanese government estimates that current capex costs of floating offshore can be as high as U$10 million per MW but could be commercially feasible if brought down to US$4 million/MW, compared to grounded offshore capex cost of US$2-3 million/MW and average Asia Pacific onshore wind capex cost of US$1.5 million/MW by 2030.