???? 據(jù)世界石油2月23日報道，Socar Trading SA加入了市場看漲呼聲的行列，并表示，今年油價將觸及每桶80美元，因為需求回升，而生產(chǎn)商無法立即實現(xiàn)充足的供應(yīng)。

????Socar首席交易官哈亞爾·阿瑪赫瑪扎達(Hayal Ahmadzada)表示，2020年為應(yīng)對疫情而建立的過剩石油庫存，將在今年夏天之前完全被消耗。與此同時，用于管道、油井和配件的鋼材價格飆升，以及生產(chǎn)商的高資本成本，將阻礙本已步履維艱的鋼鐵行業(yè)在需求恢復(fù)之際做出有意義的供應(yīng)反應(yīng)。

????Ahmadzada在阿塞拜疆巴庫接受采訪時表示:“如果今年夏季或年底前油價升至每桶80美元，那么在未來18至24個月升至每桶100美元以上，我不會感到驚訝。”

????總部位于日內(nèi)瓦的Socar trading是阿塞拜疆國有石油公司的全球貿(mào)易部門，是全球最大的能源貿(mào)易公司之一，每天處理約100萬桶原油和石油產(chǎn)品，使其對全球能源供需有著敏銳的洞察力。

????Socar與規(guī)模更大的競爭對手托克(Trafigura)一道，宣布石油和大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品進入牛市。在沙特阿拉伯承諾深化產(chǎn)量限制后，原油價格今年已上漲逾20%，進一步推動了疫苗突破性進展引發(fā)的反彈。

????Socar已經(jīng)賣掉了危機期間儲存的全部石油，多達1500萬桶。

????阿塞拜疆國民和資深交易員表示，鋼鐵價格飆升意味著石油服務(wù)承包商將難以建造管道、油井和其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以按時、按預(yù)算恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。即使隨著各國解除封鎖和其他限制措施，需求回升，供應(yīng)仍無法及時做出反應(yīng)。

????他表示:“由于鋼鐵價格非常高，我們可能會看到這個行業(yè)的洗牌。”

????Ahmadzada補充道，歐佩克及其包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的盟國將逐漸減少石油減產(chǎn)，并很快恢復(fù)全面開采原油，但這樣的供應(yīng)還遠遠不夠。

????他表示，即使沙特阿拉伯和德克薩斯州也在生產(chǎn)，人們擔心12個月后將出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。這將把價格推得非常高、非常快。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 世界石油

????原文如下：

????Socar Trading projects oil prices to hit $80 in 2021

????Oil prices will hit $80 a barrel this year as demand comes roaring back and producers won’t be able to immediately respond with sufficient supply, Socar Trading SA said, joining a chorus of bullish calls on the market.

????Hayal Ahmadzada, Socar’s chief trading officer, said the glut of excess oil stocks that built up in 2020 in response to the pandemic will be fully drawn down by the summer. At the same time, soaring prices for steel used in pipes, wells and fittings as well as the high cost of capital for producers will crimp a meaningful supply response by an already hobbled industry even as demand returns.

????“I will not be surprised if we see $80 a barrel in summer or before year-end and above $100 a barrel in the next 18 to 24 months,” Ahmadzada said in an interview from Baku, Azerbaijan.

????The global trading arm of the government-controlled State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, Geneva-based Socar Trading is one of the world’s biggest energy trading houses, handling around 1 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products, giving it keen insight into global energy supply and demand.

????Socar joins larger rival Trafigura in calling a bull run for oil and most products. Crude has gained more than 20% this year after Saudi Arabia’s pledge to deepen production curbs turbocharged a rally triggered by Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs.

????Ahmadzada said Socar had already sold all of the oil it stored during the crisis, as much as 15 million barrels.

????The Azeri national and veteran trader said soaring steel prices means oil services contractors will struggle to build pipes, wells and other infrastructure needed to bring back production on time and on budget. That will slow the supply response even as demand returns as countries emerge from lockdowns and other restrictions.

????“We may see a shake-out in that industry, due to very high steel prices,” he said.

????Ahmadzada added he expects the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which includes Russia, to taper production cuts and return to pumping crude at full tilt soon. Even so, it won’t be enough, he said.

????Even with Saudi Arabia and Texas producing, “the fear is that in 12 months there will be a shortage,” he said. “It will drive the price very high very fast.”