???? 據(jù)今日油價(jià)2月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，在被交易員們忽視了數(shù)月之后，石油再次成為一種熱門(mén)大宗商品，布倫特原油價(jià)格飆升至每桶65美元以上，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格一年來(lái)首次突破每桶60美元。
??? 油價(jià)上漲給歐佩克+繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)的決心蒙上了一層陰影，在美國(guó)因北極寒潮席卷全國(guó)而損失約40%的石油產(chǎn)量之前，石油就一直在穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇。德州的冰凍災(zāi)害無(wú)疑助推了油價(jià)，但隨著交易員們獲利回吐，漲勢(shì)正在減緩，當(dāng)前，布倫特原油價(jià)格跌至每桶63美元以下，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格跌至每桶60美元以下。然而，巨大的上行潛力仍然存在，這可能加劇歐佩克+成員國(guó)之間的內(nèi)部緊張關(guān)系。
????首先，美國(guó)對(duì)石油的需求正在復(fù)蘇。彭博社報(bào)道，復(fù)蘇始于去年12月開(kāi)始的疫苗接種運(yùn)動(dòng)，自那以后，煉油廠一直在增加燃料產(chǎn)量。過(guò)去幾周，汽油庫(kù)存有所增加，產(chǎn)量也有所增加。
????但當(dāng)前的情況是，在這個(gè)全球最大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)的需求復(fù)蘇之際，其產(chǎn)量卻停滯不前。根據(jù)EIA的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)2022年的產(chǎn)量也將維持在1200萬(wàn)桶/天以下。EIA在其最新的短期能源展望中表示，這種不平衡將使美國(guó)在今明兩年成為凈出口國(guó)。但對(duì)歐佩克+來(lái)說(shuō)，更重要的是，這將進(jìn)一步推高油價(jià)，誘使原本就不怎么遵守減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的成員國(guó)變得更加不受約束。
????這個(gè)龐大的石油卡特爾內(nèi)部已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了分歧。上一次歐佩克+做出產(chǎn)量決定時(shí)，就不得不做出妥協(xié)，考慮到俄羅斯等國(guó)的利益，這些國(guó)家堅(jiān)持要削減一些最大幅度的產(chǎn)量。現(xiàn)在，沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)表示，將暫停其自愿單方面的每日額外100萬(wàn)桶的減產(chǎn)，沙特也將不惜一切代價(jià)提高油價(jià)。
????這些信號(hào)表明歐佩克事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)正對(duì)油價(jià)變得更加樂(lè)觀。然而，根據(jù)華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)的報(bào)道，如果價(jià)格形勢(shì)發(fā)生變化，減產(chǎn)決定可能還會(huì)被逆轉(zhuǎn)。具有諷刺意味的是，一旦德州的嚴(yán)寒熱潮消退，沙特阿拉伯每日新增100萬(wàn)桶石油供應(yīng)的消息很可能對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。不過(guò)，盡管沙特阿拉伯繼續(xù)準(zhǔn)備采取一切必要措施，俄羅斯卻認(rèn)為石油市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)重新平衡。
????諾瓦克表示：“過(guò)去幾個(gè)月，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)不大，這意味著市場(chǎng)是平衡的，我們今天看到的價(jià)格與市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)一致。雖然去年春季的石油需求比往年同期的正常水平低20- 25%，但到2020年底，下降幅度已縮小至8% - 9%。
????說(shuō)到伊拉克，盡管該國(guó)試圖進(jìn)一步削減原油產(chǎn)量，以彌補(bǔ)去年的產(chǎn)量過(guò)剩，但該國(guó)報(bào)告稱(chēng)，2月份頭兩周的石油出口有所增加。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，整個(gè)月，伊拉克可能會(huì)超過(guò)自己設(shè)定的360萬(wàn)桶/天的上限，甚至超過(guò)歐佩克+385萬(wàn)桶/天的上限。還有的成員國(guó)已經(jīng)在提高產(chǎn)量，并計(jì)劃重返國(guó)際石油舞臺(tái)。
????歐佩克+內(nèi)部減產(chǎn)和產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)之間的不和諧聲音只會(huì)隨著最新的石油樂(lè)觀消息而加深，且沙特石油部長(zhǎng)已發(fā)出警告，稱(chēng)不要自滿。
????薩勒曼王子表示:“我必須再次警告大家不要自滿，市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)不確定性非常高，我們必須非常謹(jǐn)慎，2020年危機(jī)留下的傷疤應(yīng)該告訴我們要謹(jǐn)慎。”
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)
????原文如下：
????Can OPEC+ Maintain Order As Oil Prices Rise?
????After months of neglect from traders, oil became a hot commodity again this month as Brent surged over $65 a barrel and WTI topped $60 for the first time in a year. The rally cast a shadow over OPEC+’s resolve to keep cutting as much production as they are cutting now. Oil had been recovering steadily even before the United States lost some 40 percent of its oil production because of the Arctic cold wave that swept across the country. The Texas deep freeze certainly helped it, but its effect is already dwindling as traders take profits: Brent was down to less than $63 at the time of writing, and WTI had slipped below $60 a barrel. Yet a substantial upside potential remains that could increase internal tensions between OPEC+ members.
????For one thing, U.S. demand for oil is recovering. The recovery, Bloomberg reports, started with the vaccination drive that began in December, and since then, refiners have been ramping up fuel production. The last couple of weeks have seen gasoline stocks rise but so has production.
????While demand in the world’s top consumer of oil recovers, production is stalling. According to the EIA, U.S. output will remain below 12 million bpd next year as well. This imbalance will turn the United States into a net exporter this year and next, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. But more importantly for OPEC+, this would push oil prices higher still, tempting barely compliant members to become even less compliant.
????There is already discord within the extended oil cartel. The last time OPEC+ made a decision on production, it had to make a compromise decision to take into account the interests of those—like Russia—that insisted on some rollback of the deepest production cuts. And now, Saudi Arabia has said it would suspend its voluntary unilateral additional cuts that amounted to 1 million bpd and that Riyadh effected in its whatever-it-takes quest for higher prices.
????That’s the clearest signal yet that OPEC’s de facto leader and biggest producer is becoming more optimistic about prices. Per the Wall Street Journal report that broke the news, however, the decision may yet be reversed if the price situation changes. Ironically, the very news that Saudi Arabia will add another million barrels daily to global supply is likely to have a negative effect on prices once the Texas deep freeze frenzy fizzles out.
????But while Saudi Arabia continues to be ready to do whatever it takes, Russia sees the oil market as already rebalanced. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said as much last week as quoted by Russian media.
????“We’ve seen low volatility in the past few months. This means the market is balanced and the prices we are seeing today are in line with the market situation,” Novak told TV channel Rossiya 1. Novak added that while last spring oil demand was 20-25 percent lower than its normal level at this time of year, by the end of 2020, the decline had shrunk to 8-9 percent. And Russia remains one of the barely compliant nations in the OPEC+ agreement. In fact, like Iraq, Russia has been producing over its quota.
????Speaking of Iraq, the country reported an increase in oil exports for the first two weeks of February despite its attempt to reduce production of crude oil further to compensate for its overproduction last year. For the full month, according to Bloomberg, Iraq may exceed its self-imposed cap of 3.6 million bpd and even its OPEC+ cap of 3.85 million bpd.
????And then there is Iran, which is already boosting production as it is exempt from the OPEC+ cuts and has big plans for its return on the international oil stage after U.S. sanctions are lifted. This has yet to happen, after Washington tied the removal of sanctions on Iran’s suspension of uranium enrichment activities.
????In what could be seen as a gesture of goodwill, the U.S. earlier this month said it had rescinded a declaration by the Trump administration that all UN sanctions against Iran had snapped back. The declaration was void because it used provisions from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the U.S. had left before making the declaration. In any case,?a certain menmber?has reasons for optimism that it will be sanction-free soon and ready to pump more.
????The discord between production cut hawks and production growth doves within OPEC+ will only deepen with the latest bullish news on oil. It already led Saudi Arabia’s oil minister to warn against complacency.
????“I must warn once again against complacency,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this week as quoted by Bloomberg. “The uncertainty is very high and we have to be extremely cautious. The scars from the events last year should teach us caution.”
????Uncertainty indeed remains high, and then there is the threat of U.S. producers giving in to the temptation of WTI at over $60. For now, they have been resisting it, in all fairness, perhaps displaying the same caution bin Salman talked about this week. But at some point, the temptation may become irresistible, and what for OPEC is a nightmare scenario may happen again: U.S. producers ramping up output thanks to OPEC+ efforts to keep prices high enough to make it economical.
????For now, there is no sign that OPEC+ will depart from its current policy of sticking with 7.2 million bpd in cuts until April. But, again, as Saudi Arabia’s top oilman said, “Those who are trying to predict the next move of OPEC+, to those I say, don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
