???? 據今日油價1月29日報道，2020年石油巨頭們幾乎“遺忘了”上漲的石油基準價格和反彈的股價。在歐佩克+和大型制藥公司的幫助下，世界上最大的石油公司開始有了點腳踏實地的感覺。本周，大型石油公司將開始公布第四季度和2020年度業績。
????預計2020年是資產減記的一年。
????如果2020年必須由大型石油公司來命名，那么它很可能被命名為減記之年。由于新冠肺炎疫情帶來的歷史性需求的下降，大型石油公司出現了虧損，它們減記了價值數百億美元的資產。僅英國石油公司一家就計算了高達175億美元的資產減記。就連埃克森美孚也在去年11月表示，將在第四季報告中計入170 - 200億美元的減記。
????但這些減記已經被市場考慮在內，因此，所以無論主要石油公司報告什么，都不會對它們的股價產生太大的負面影響。順便說一下，由于疫苗的推進和歐佩克+的持續削減，這些庫存公司的業務恢復得很好，但至少在一段時間內，它們可能再也不會成為熱門股票。
????除了減記外，2020年的另一個主題是歐洲大型石油公司轉向可再生能源。所有的石油巨頭，甚至是埃克森美孚，都有中長期減排目標。然而，在這些目標上，有些公司比其他公司更雄心勃勃，這實際上就是承諾不再做石油巨頭。當這些計劃最初浮出水面時，股東們反應十分謹慎。當首席執行官伯納德 魯尼宣布其2050年凈零計劃時，英國石油的股價下跌。然而，英國石油和其他超級石油巨頭可能指望的是一類新投資者:ESG群體。
????2020年是成本削減的一年。
????由于2020年石油價格在疫情的重壓下下跌，大型石油公司采取了削減成本和調整支出的措施來應對危機。支出計劃很謹慎，而且在世界經濟恢復到某種表面正常水平之前可能會一直如此。不過，如果布倫特原油價格突破每桶50美元，一些超級石油巨頭可能仍會提出一些出人意料的計劃。
????彭博社的凱文 克勞利（Kevin Crowley）和勞拉 赫斯特（Laura Hurst）在最近一篇關于第四季度石油巨額收益和對未來預期的文章中寫道，投資者可能會密切關注本財報季的成本更新和支出計劃。彭博社文章援引摩根士丹利分析師的話稱，投資者還將把現金流視為反映股價表現的公司健康狀況一個單一指標。
????2020年是轉型年。
????減排計劃將成為人們關注的焦點，因為現在全球似乎都開始尋求減少碳足跡，各行各業都在關注減排計劃。向新的業務領域分散投資，越環保越好。如果操作得當，可能會進一步提振股價。
????與此同時，油氣生產和加工等關鍵業務領域的資產精簡和無機增長也將非常重要。畢竟,并不是所有的石油大股東都是ESG，盡管專門為向污染大企業施壓而成立的維權組織有所抬頭，但仍有許多人是石油大股東，因為他們相信石油和天然氣在未來幾十年內將繼續是我們在地球上生活的必需品。
????王佳晶 是摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下：
????Can Big Oil Surprise This Earnings Season?
????Rising oil benchmarks and rebounding share prices: two things Big Oil majors had all but forgotten last year. Yet helped by OPEC+ and Big Pharma, the world’s largest oil companies are beginning to remember what it felt like to have some ground under their feet. This week Big Oil begins reporting fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results. Here’s what we can reasonably expect.
????The Year of Writedowns
????If 2020 had to be named by Big Oil, it might well be named The Year of the Writedowns. Big Oil wrote down tens of billions of dollars worth of assets as they become unprofitable amid the historical demand slump that the coronavirus pandemic brought about. BP alone calculated its writedowns at up to $17.5 billion. Even Exxon, which resisted writedowns until the last possible moment, said last November it would book writedowns of between $17 and $20 billion in its fourth-quarter report.
????But these writedowns have already been factored in by the market, so whatever the majors report, it shouldn’t have too big a negative effect on their share prices. These, by the way, have been recovering nicely on Covid-19 vaccine developments and continuing OPEC+ cuts, but they are still not the go-to stocks they once were. And they may never again become go-to stocks, at least for a while.
????Besides writedowns, the other theme of 2020 was the pivot of European Big Oil towards renewable energy. All Big Oil majors—again, even Exxon—have emission cutting targets for the medium and long term. Yet some are more ambitious than others in these targets and are practically pledging to stop being Big Oil. When these plans were first floated, shareholders reacted warily: BP’s stock price dropped when CEO Bernard Looney announced his net-zero plans for 2050. Yet BP and its fellow supermajors may well be banking on a new breed of investors: the ESG crowd, who will want to hear more about these net-zero plans.
????The Second Cost Cut Era
????As oil prices tanked last year under the weight of the pandemic, Big Oil took to cost cuts and spending revisions to respond to the crisis. Spending plans are still cautious and likely to remain so until the world returns to some semblance of normality, which banks expect to happen later this year. Yet some supermajors may still surprise with plans for this year if they feel bold enough with Brent above $50 a barrel.
????Investors are likely to watch cost updates and spending plans closely this reporting season as they have “largely given up on rewarding companies for boosting output, expanding underground reserves or timely project construction,” Bloomberg’s Kevin Crowley and Laura Hurst wrote in a recent piece on Big Oil Q4 earnings and what to expect from it. Investors will also watch cash flows as the one single indicator for the companies health as reflected in stock price performance, according to Morgan Stanley analysts cited in the Bloomberg article.
????A Complete Makeover
????Emission-cutting plans will be in the spotlight this earnings season, as they are in every industry now that the world seems set on a quest to reduce its carbon footprint. Diversification into new business areas—the greener the better—could boost stock prices further if done right.
????At the same time, asset streamlining and inorganic growth in Big Oil’s key business areas pf oil and gas production and processing will also be important. After all, not all Big Oil shareholders are the ESG type, and despite the rise of activist groups set up specifically to pressure big polluters into a cleaner direction, there are many who hold Big Oil because they believe oil and gas will continue to be essential for our life on the planet for decades to come.
