???? 據(jù)3月15日今日油價(jià)報(bào)道，南非解除頁(yè)巖氣勘探禁令已經(jīng)近10年了，但這個(gè)資源豐富的國(guó)家的頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)業(yè)潛力從未真正被挖掘。人們對(duì)廣闊的半沙漠地區(qū)卡魯盆地給予了極大的關(guān)注和期望，但在過(guò)去十年中，對(duì)有潛力的鉆井者來(lái)說(shuō)，一系列關(guān)于頁(yè)巖氣前景的研究顯示，結(jié)果越來(lái)越令人失望。早在2017年，一篇題為《南非頁(yè)巖氣:游戲規(guī)則的改變者還是默默無(wú)聞》的文章似乎傾向卡魯盆地中部地區(qū)的天然氣儲(chǔ)量上限非常低——大約為20萬(wàn)億立方英尺。事實(shí)上，20萬(wàn)億立方英尺大約是南非煤炭?jī)?chǔ)量的四十分之一。與非洲其他天然氣儲(chǔ)量相比，莫桑比克的常規(guī)海上天然氣儲(chǔ)量也相形見(jiàn)絀，據(jù)估計(jì)，莫桑比克的常規(guī)海上天然氣儲(chǔ)量為75萬(wàn)億立方英尺。

????Robert Scholes表示：“在南非發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)有價(jià)值的天然氣藏，即使規(guī)模很小，也有可能改變一個(gè)國(guó)家的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)。但是，在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、監(jiān)管工具、檢測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)和井場(chǎng)開(kāi)發(fā)方面進(jìn)行大量投資，來(lái)獲得可能不存在的資源，這在財(cái)政、政治和環(huán)境方面都存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

????但現(xiàn)在，在將近四年后的今天，卡魯盆地再次回到了人們的視野中，頁(yè)巖投資者再次找到了值得樂(lè)觀的東西。首先，情況已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化，隨著天然氣成為一種需求日益旺盛的資源，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾年全球需求將快速增長(zhǎng)。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)的預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)五年，全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨竺磕陮⒊^(guò)煤炭和石油1.6%。這種增長(zhǎng)是由多種因素共同推動(dòng)的，包括充足的供應(yīng)、相對(duì)低的價(jià)格，以及天然氣的碳排放比石油或煤炭要少，作為化石燃料其對(duì)環(huán)境更有利。由于這些原因，天然氣將成為最后一種需求達(dá)到峰值的主要化石燃料，并在本世紀(jì)中葉成為世界主要能源。

????因此，歷史上一直依賴煤炭的非洲正在尋找進(jìn)入頁(yè)巖氣領(lǐng)域的途徑，這也就不足為奇了。卡魯?shù)貐^(qū)再次處于一些倡議的聚焦點(diǎn)。不僅是卡魯盆地，最近在南非南部海岸發(fā)現(xiàn)的凝析油也重新燃起了在該地區(qū)發(fā)展更強(qiáng)勁的天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的熱情。南非的天然氣生產(chǎn)是上周非洲天然氣論壇的主要主題之一。

????更重要的一點(diǎn)是，20萬(wàn)億立方英尺的估計(jì)可能是錯(cuò)的。自2017年以來(lái)，其他報(bào)告的估計(jì)引用的上限數(shù)字接近200萬(wàn)億立方英尺。即使實(shí)際可開(kāi)采的天然氣只有這個(gè)數(shù)字的一半，頁(yè)巖氣也可能徹底改變南非和整個(gè)非洲大陸的游戲規(guī)則。在歷史上，南非能源行業(yè)每年的投資缺口達(dá)500億美元。

????將南非大部分未開(kāi)發(fā)的天然氣資源引入全球市場(chǎng)將對(duì)南非的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響，同時(shí)也可能對(duì)整個(gè)世界產(chǎn)生重大影響。這可能會(huì)帶來(lái)一些積極的外部影響，可以增加天然氣的供應(yīng)，削弱石油和煤炭等對(duì)氣候造成更大破壞的能源使用。然而，盡管天然氣更有利于環(huán)境，但政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)的專家們表示，僅僅是更好的能源選擇還是不夠的，為了避免氣候變化帶來(lái)的最壞影響，天然氣開(kāi)采在這十年必須減少。為了讓非洲最終在全球能源市場(chǎng)中獲得一席之地，最好不要將目光僅僅停留在卡魯?shù)貐^(qū)，而是開(kāi)始吸引綠色技術(shù)的投資，以便在一個(gè)以可再生能源為主導(dǎo)的未來(lái)站穩(wěn)腳跟。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

????原文如下：

????South Africa Hopes To Become The Next Big Shale Success Story

????It’s been nearly a decade since South Africa lifted a freeze on shale gas exploration, but the resource-rich nation’s potential ensuing shale revolution never quite materialized. Much attention and expectations have been bestowed upon the vast, semi-desert region called the Karoo basin, but a series of studies on the potential shale play over the past decade have shown increasingly disappointing results for prospective drillers. Back in 2017, in an article in The Conversation delightfully titled “Shale gas in South Africa: game-changer or damp squib?,” seemed to lean far toward the damp squib end of the spectrum, pointing out that recent estimates had shown the upper limit of gas reserves in the Central Karoo as discouragingly low--around 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf)--what the author referred to as “trillion cubic feet (tcf).” In fact, it’s about one fortieth of the size of South Africa’s coal reserves. It’s also dwarfed by other natural gas reserves in Africa--Mozambique’s conventional offshore gas reserves hold an estimated 75 tcf.

????“A viable gas find in South Africa, even if quite small, would potentially transform the national energy economy,” Robert Scholes wrote in The Conversation. “But making a large investment in infrastructure, regulatory tools, monitoring bodies, and wellfield development for a resource which may not exist is financially, politically and environmentally risky.”

????But now, nearly four years later, the Karoo is back in the headlines, and shale speculators are once again finding something to be optimistic about. For starters, the context has changed as natural gas becomes an increasingly in-demand resource, with global demand projected to grow at a brisk clip in coming years. According to projections compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for natural gas is on track to outpace both coal and oil by 1.6% each year for the next five years. This growth is being catalyzed by a confluence of factors including plentiful supply, accordingly low prices, and natural gas’ environmental benefits as a less emissions-intensive fossil fuel than oil or coal. For these reasons, gas is going to be the last major fossil fuel to experience peak demand, and will more than likely be the world’s primary energy source toward the middle of this century.

????So it’s no wonder that Africa, which has historically been reliant on coal, is looking for ways to break into the shale gas game, and the Karoo has once again found itself at the center of some of those initiatives. And not only the Karoo--a recent gas condensate discovery off the southern coast of South Africa has also renewed enthusiasm for developing a more robust natural gas sector in the region. Natural gas production in South Africa was one of the major themes at last week’s Africa Gas Forum.

????And then there’s the fact that the 20 trillion cubic feet estimate might be off--WAY off. Other estimates reported since that 2017 dismissal are citing upper limit numbers closer to 200 trillion cubic feet. Even if the actual extractable gas is merely half that amount, shale gas could be a complete game-changer for South Africa and the African continent as a whole, which has historically experienced a monumentally limiting $50 billion energy sector investment gap each year.

????Bringing South Africa’s largely untapped gas resources into the global market would have major implications for the domestic economy, but could also have major implications for the entire world. It may have some positive externalities, adding to the supply of natural gas and undercutting more climate-damaging resources like oil and coal. While natural gas is better, however, experts in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say that better isn’t good enough, and natural gas extraction will have to be scaled back this decade in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. In order for Africa to finally get a seat at the table in global energy markets, they would do well not to stop at the Karoo, but start attracting investment for green technologies as well in order to get a foothold in a more renewable future.

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