???? 據(jù)福布斯3月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，頁(yè)巖油氣公司僅僅通過(guò)大量開(kāi)采石油就能說(shuō)服投資者掏腰包的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。如今，一群不同的、更為保守的投資者在頁(yè)巖行業(yè)擁有著影響力，他們要求的不是令人矚目的石油產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)，而是穩(wěn)定的股東回報(bào)、積極的自由現(xiàn)金流和更小的環(huán)境影響。

????畢馬威會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(KPMG)全球能源主管Regina Mayor在接受采訪時(shí)表示:“堅(jiān)守頁(yè)巖行業(yè)的投資者是穩(wěn)定的，他們希望該板塊的投資和開(kāi)發(fā)更加謹(jǐn)慎，資產(chǎn)投資需要有可預(yù)見(jiàn)性，只關(guān)注產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的投資者們已經(jīng)走了。”

????盡管美國(guó)成為了世界上最大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)，但美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油行業(yè)還是疏遠(yuǎn)了推動(dòng)其產(chǎn)量驚人增長(zhǎng)的投資者。德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Deloitte)去年的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，2010年至2020年，石油行業(yè)的凈自由現(xiàn)金流為負(fù)，為3000億美元，超過(guò)埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)的年收入。幻想破滅的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司和其他尋求高增長(zhǎng)的基金早在疫情爆發(fā)前就已經(jīng)退出了該行業(yè)，但病毒引發(fā)的石油暴跌加速了它們的撤退。

????頁(yè)巖公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)將注意力轉(zhuǎn)移到剩下的這些投資者上。

????研究分析公司IHS Markit的副總裁拉烏爾·勒布朗(Raoul LeBlanc)在接受采訪時(shí)表示：“他們?nèi)匀槐池?fù)著堆積如山的債務(wù)，有著糟糕的業(yè)績(jī)。因此，他們真正關(guān)注的是試圖證明頁(yè)巖板塊是可以盈利的。”

????到目前為止，該行業(yè)已表現(xiàn)出對(duì)這一目標(biāo)的承諾。即使WTI油價(jià)恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)前的每桶略高于60美元的水平，頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商也選擇節(jié)約現(xiàn)金，而不是將其用于新的生產(chǎn)。咨詢公司Rystad Energy本月初的一份報(bào)告顯示，今年新設(shè)備的總支出（資本支出或資本支出）將與2020年大致持平，而2020年是許多運(yùn)營(yíng)商大幅削減開(kāi)支的一年。當(dāng)前，盡管油價(jià)不斷上漲，美國(guó)每周鉆探新石油或天然氣的鉆機(jī)數(shù)量（衡量未來(lái)產(chǎn)量水平和現(xiàn)金支出意愿的常用指標(biāo)）仍遠(yuǎn)低于疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。

????這意味著將有更大比例的受益留給股東。從歷史上看，頁(yè)巖公司會(huì)將所有可自由支配的現(xiàn)金流重新投資到新的資本支出中，然后再借入額外資金進(jìn)行再投資。但據(jù)IHS Markit的LeBlanc稱，這種再投資率曾經(jīng)高達(dá)現(xiàn)金流的110-130%，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)降至更為節(jié)儉的60-65%，甚至更低。

????投資者不僅僅想要控制資本支出，他們還呼吁企業(yè)控制排放，減少甲烷燃燒等不良行為。化石燃料領(lǐng)域許多最大的投資機(jī)構(gòu)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)采用了協(xié)議，對(duì)自己在化石燃料領(lǐng)域的持股情況進(jìn)行仔細(xì)審查。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 福布斯

????原文如下：

????Shale Oil’s New Investors Want Discipline And A Smaller Environmental Footprint

????Gone are the days when shale oil and gas companies could persuade investors to write checks by simply pumping lots of oil. These days a different and more conservative class of investor commands influence in the shale industry, demanding not head-turning oil production figures but consistent shareholder returns, positive free cash flow, and a smaller environmental footprint.

????"The investor community that stuck with [the shale industry] is the steady ones, that want discipline, that want predictability,” said Regina Mayor, global head of energy at accounting firm KPMG, in an interview. “That's the investor base they are all pandering to now. The growth investors are gone.”

????Despite turning America into the world’s top oil-producing country, the U.S. shale oil industry succeeded in alienating the investors who enabled its astounding growth. Between 2010 and 2020 the industry had negative net free cash flows of $300 billion, more than the annual revenue of Exxon Mobil, according to a study last year by accounting firm Deloitte. Disillusioned venture capital firms and other high-growth-seeking funds were already exiting the sector before the pandemic, but the virus-caused oil rout accelerated their retreat.

????Shale firms have now shifted focus to holding on to the investors that remain.

????“They still have a mountain of debt, they have a bad track record, and they know that everybody doesn't like them,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a vice president at IHS Markit, a research and analysis firm, in an interview. “So they're really focused on trying to show that shale can be profitable.”

????So far, the industry has shown commitment to that goal. Even as WTI oil prices return to pre-pandemic levels of just above $60 per barrel, shale producers are choosing to conserve cash rather than spend it on new production. Total spending on new equipment (capital expenditure or capex) this year will be roughly the same as in 2020, a year when many operators made drastic cuts, according to a note by the consultancy Rystad Energy earlier this month. And despite rising oil prices, the weekly count of rigs drilling for new oil or gas in the U.S. — a common measure of future production levels and willingness to spend cash — is still well below before the pandemic.

????This has meant a larger share of earnings is left over to hand back to shareholders. Historically shale companies have reinvested all of their discretionary cash flow back into new capital spending and then borrowed extra to reinvest on top of that. But now this reinvestment rate, once as high as 110-130% of cash flows, has now fallen to a far more frugal 60-65% or less, according to IHS Markit’s LeBlanc.

????Investors don’t just want capital discipline; they are also clamoring for firms to reign in emissions and clean up bad practices such as methane flaring. Many of the largest institutional investors in the sector have now adopted protocols that require them to carefully scrutinize their holdings in fossil fuels.

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