???? 據(jù)今日油價4月13日報道，3月份，美國政府提議征收碳稅，以解決導(dǎo)致氣候變化的溫室氣體排放問題，這讓化石燃料行業(yè)再次受到打擊。白宮國家氣候顧問吉娜·麥卡錫明確表示，政府并不是在打擊石油和天然氣行業(yè)，而是希望利用減排技術(shù)來創(chuàng)造工作機會，推動美國經(jīng)濟并加強美國制造業(yè)發(fā)展。
????有趣的是，包括埃克森美孚和雪佛龍在內(nèi)的10家最大的石油和天然氣公司的高管都支持這個計劃，而西方石油公司的首席執(zhí)行官Vicki Hollub是唯一高調(diào)的反對者。
????減排計劃已經(jīng)敲響了煤炭等高碳產(chǎn)業(yè)的警鐘。
??? 如果聯(lián)邦碳價格從2026年開始實施，到2030年風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電可能從目前占發(fā)電組合的11%增加到30%，那么煤炭發(fā)電目前占發(fā)電組合的21%的份額可能會降至僅5%。事實上，封存一半的燃煤電廠將為12.2萬兆瓦的風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電打開大門，同時到2025年將減少約6億噸的溫室氣體排放。
????一項新的研究顯示，積極推行100%清潔能源還可以為美國節(jié)省多達3210億美元的能源成本。毫不奇怪的是，大型石油公司的高管們想出了一個截然不同的解決方案:在不犧牲石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量的前提下，實現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)低碳環(huán)保運營。
????減少排放，而不是禁用化石燃料。
????3月，IHS Markit能源大會最重要的主題是，大型石油公司不想把重點放在削減石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量上，而是想減輕其碳排放和溫室氣體排放的影響。埃克森美孚首席執(zhí)行官達倫?伍茲和西方石油公司的維琪?霍爾盧布認(rèn)為，減少化石燃料的碳排放——而不是減少實際使用的化石燃料，是應(yīng)對氣候變化的最佳方式。
????有趣的是，兩位首席執(zhí)行官都強調(diào)，世界仍然需要石油和天然氣，各國政府需要專注于減緩全球變暖，使用碳捕獲和封存(CCS)等技術(shù)，而不是打擊化石燃料生產(chǎn)。然而，即使是其中發(fā)聲最強硬的埃克森美孚，其態(tài)度也與幾年前相比有了明顯的改變。
????在該公司2021年投資者日期間，首席執(zhí)行官Darren Woods概述了能源轉(zhuǎn)型戰(zhàn)略，包括削減產(chǎn)量增長和增加現(xiàn)金流的計劃，以支持不斷增長的股息。埃克森美孚透露，該公司計劃在2020年至2025年將產(chǎn)量保持在370萬桶/天的水平，較一年前發(fā)布的2025年500萬桶/天的預(yù)期減少26%。
????盡管如此，埃克森美孚仍計劃繼續(xù)提高二疊紀(jì)盆地和圭亞那的產(chǎn)量，今年二疊紀(jì)盆地的平均產(chǎn)量為40萬桶/天，到2025年將升至70萬桶/天。埃克森美孚認(rèn)為圭亞那將很快成為重要的盈利點，但該公司已無限期暫停了其他大型項目，如300億美元的莫桑比克液化天然氣出口項目。
????Darren Woods宣布，計劃將碳捕獲和封存方面的投資增加到新增支出的3%左右，雖然比此前的1%有所改善，但與歐洲主要公司道達爾和荷蘭皇家殼牌的兩位數(shù)占比水平相比仍有很大差距。Woods敦促各國政府停止公司間的比較，而是建立碳市場，以確保大家利可以用市場力量以最有效的成本減少二氧化碳排放。
????財大氣粗的投資者并不買賬。
????由145名成員組成的負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管25萬美元資產(chǎn)的埃克森美孚聯(lián)盟表示，埃克森美孚必須改變方向，而不僅僅是任命新的董事候選人。
????西方石油公司的Vicky Hollub非常贊同Darren Woods的觀點:“我認(rèn)為人們不理解的是，我們不應(yīng)該談?wù)摲艞壔剂稀Ｎ覀冋嬲枰務(wù)摰氖窍欧牛绻覀兡茏龅剑覀儠龅健Ａ闾际停@是世界需要的。在沒有石油工業(yè)的幫助下達成巴黎協(xié)議，不可否認(rèn)，這是世界無法實現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)。說實話，我們可以成為碳減排的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。”
????Hollub表示，OXY的目標(biāo)不僅是成為凈零石油生產(chǎn)商，而且要幫助其他公司降低碳足跡:“我們將在二疊紀(jì)盆地建造最大的碳捕獲設(shè)備，與我們合作的是聯(lián)合航空公司，因為他們也致力于在2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放。”
????Hollub透露，西方石油公司已經(jīng)簽約從科羅拉多州的兩家乙醇工廠和一家鋼鐵廠提取碳，并將其封存在二疊紀(jì)盆地。上周，西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum)宣布，它的子公司Oxy Low Carbon Ventures計劃建造并運營一個生物乙烯試驗工廠，該工廠將采用人造二氧化碳替代碳?xì)浠衔镌系募夹g(shù)。
????生物乙烯目前主要由甘蔗提取的生物乙醇生產(chǎn)。該試點工廠預(yù)計將于2022年開始運營。
????與此同時，OXY反對征收碳稅。OXY首席執(zhí)行官在德克薩斯州獨立生產(chǎn)商和版稅所有者協(xié)會的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)峰會上表示:“碳稅對很多行業(yè)都不利，對消費者不利，尤其是那些從經(jīng)濟角度看處于不利地位的消費者。”
????在以550億美元收購阿納達科(Anadarko)后，西方石油公司背上了385億美元的巨額債務(wù)，成為一樁并購交易失敗的典型代表。
????能源巨頭們都在為生存而戰(zhàn)。
????CFRA能源分析師斯圖爾特?格利克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示，大型石油公司花了大量時間宣傳其在低碳未來和碳捕獲等技術(shù)方面的努力，因為它們實際上卷入了一場生存之戰(zhàn)。僅在2020年，ESG基金就吸引了511億美元的新資金，而在這個時代，沒有低碳戰(zhàn)略將導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難。
????當(dāng)然，化石燃料投資者仍然想聽到一些老生常談的問題:你的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表有多健康?你能維持股息嗎?你的營運現(xiàn)金流是怎樣的?你能在不花費太多資本支出的情況下維持你想要的產(chǎn)量嗎?這些考慮永遠是最重要的。但與此同時，他們也希望聽到對可再生能源和低碳解決方案業(yè)務(wù)的投資。即使換幾個董事會席位這個問題也無法避免。
????到目前為止，石油和天然氣公司似乎在安撫投資者的緊張情緒方面做得不錯，能源精選板塊SPDR基金(XLE)上漲了26.2%，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)年初迄今的漲幅為9.8%。
????也就是說，在大多數(shù)石油公司都轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源投資之際，僅僅是轉(zhuǎn)向綠色油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的策略仍然是一種風(fēng)險和未經(jīng)檢驗的策略。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下；
????Big Oil Aims To Win Back Investors With Green Oil
????Last month, the Biden administration dealt the fossil fuel industry yet another blow after it proposed the introduction of a carbon tax in a bid to address the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy went to great lengths to make it clear that the Biden Administration is not fighting the oil and gas sector, but rather wants to deploy emissions reduction technologies to create union jobs, fuel the American economy and strengthen American manufacturing.
????Interestingly, executives from 10 of the biggest oil and gas companies, including CEOs of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), bought into Biden's plan with Occidental (NYSE:OXY) CEO Vicki Hollub being the only high-profile dissenter.
????Why is this important? Because it has probably sounded the death knell for high-carbon industries such as coal.
???Coal's current 21% share of the generation mix is likely to fall to just 5% by 2030, assuming that a federal carbon price starts in 2026 while wind and solar generation could increase from the current 11% of the generation mix to 30% in 2030.
????Indeed, mothballing half of the country's coal-burning electricity plants will open the doors for 122,000 megawatts of wind and solar while also cutting greenhouse gas emissions by some 600 million metric tons by 2025.
????An aggressive push towards 100% clean energy could also save Americans as much as $321 billion in energy costs, according to a new study.
????Hardly surprisingly, Big Oil executives have come up with a radically different solution: Greening their operations without necessarily sacrificing oil and gas output.
????Lowering emissions, not nixing fossil fuels
????Speaking at last month's CERAWeek by IHS Markit energy conference, the overriding theme that emerged at the conference is that Big Oil wants to focus not so much on curtailing oil and gas production but rather on mitigating the impact of its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.
????According to Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods and Occidental Petroleum's Vicky Hollub, reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels—and not the actual use of fossil fuels-—offers the best way to combat climate change.
????Interestingly, both CEOs have stressed that the world still needs oil and gas, and governments need to focus on mitigating global warming using technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) instead of attacking fossil fuels.
????Nevertheless, even the biggest hardliner of them all, Exxon Mobil, has markedly changed its tune from just a few years back.
????During the company's 2021 Investor Day, CEO Darren Woods outlined the company's energy transition strategy, including plans to trim production growth and boost cash flows in a bid to support a growing dividend. Exxon revealed that it plans to hold production flat from 2020 levels through 2025 at 3.7M boe/day, good for a 26% cut from the 5M boe/day estimate for 2025 it released just a year ago.
????Still, Exxon plans to continue ramping up production at the Permian Basin and Guyana, with Permian production averaging 400K boe/day this year before rising to 700K boe/day by 2025. Exxon also sees Guyana quickly becoming a key cash cow, but has indefinitely suspended other major projects such as the $30B Mozambique LNG export project.
????Woods announced plans to increase investments on carbon capture and storage to ~3% of new spending, an improvement from the 1% it had previously earmarked for CCS but still a far cry from the double-digit levels from European majors Total SE (NYSE:TOT) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A). Woods urged governments to stop picking winners and losers but instead establish carbon markets so as to "make sure we're using market forces to try to most cost effectively reduce CO2 emissions."
????Deep-pocketed investors are not buying it.
????The 145-member Coalition for a Responsible Exxon that oversees $2.5T in assets said that Exxon Mobil must change direction and not merely appoint new board candidates.
????Occidental Petroleum's Vicky Hollub pretty much echoed Darren Woods' views:
????"What I think that people don't understand is we should not be talking about eliminating fossil fuels. What we really need to be talking about is eliminating emissions and if we can provide and we will. Net carbon zero oil, that is what the world needs and the world cannot achieve the goals ... of the Paris accord without the oil industry helping with that. We can be leaders in that."
????Hollub said OXY's goal was to not only become a net-zero oil producer but also help other companies lower their carbon footprint:
????"We're going to be building what will be the largest direct air capture facility in the Permian and partnering with us to do that is United Airlines because they also have a commitment and focus on getting to net zero by 2050."
????Hollub revealed that Occidental has signed up to take carbon from two ethanol plants and a steel plant in Colorado and sequester it in the Permian Basin.
????Last week, Occidental Petroleum announced that its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures subsidiary plans to build and operate a bio-ethylene pilot plant that will apply technology using human-made carbon dioxide instead of hydrocarbon-sourced feedstocks.
????Bio-ethylene is currently produced from bio-ethanol mainly derived from sugarcane. The pilot plant is expected to begin operations in 2022.
????OXY is also against a carbon tax:
????"A carbon tax would be bad for a lot of the industry, a carbon tax would be bad for the consumers and especially for those consumers who are more disadvantaged from an economic standpoint," OXY's CEO told a virtual summit of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association.
????OXY has become the quintessential poster-child of an M&A deal gone bad after its $55B acquisition of Anadarko left it saddled with a massive $38.5 billion debt pile.
????A fight for survival
????Stewart Glickman, CFRA energy analyst, says Big Oil is spending a lot of time marketing its efforts on a low carbon future and technologies such as carbon capture because they are literally embroiled in a fight for survival.
????In 2020 alone, ESG funds attracted $51.1 billion of new money, and not having a low-carbon strategy in these times is a recipe for disaster.
????Sure, fossil fuel investors still want to hear the usual things: How healthy is your balance sheet? Can you sustain your dividend? What's your operating cash flow look like? Can you maintain the production you want without spending too heavily on capex?
????These considerations will always be paramount. But in the same breath, they also want to hear about your investment in renewables and low carbon solutions businesses. And changing a few board seats no longer cuts it.
????So far, oil and gas companies appear to be doing a good job placating jittery investors, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) up 26.2% vs. 9.8% YTD gain by the S&P 500.
????That said, merely greening your legacy hydrocarbon business remains a risky and untested strategy at a time when the majority of oil companies are pivoting towards renewable energy investments.
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