據天然氣新聞2021年4月27日新加坡報道，亞洲的液化天然氣（LNG）需求受到印度疫情惡化的影響，預計這將抑制天然氣和電力需求，現貨LNG貨物已經受到影響，而日本宣布進入緊急狀態，其LNG進口量已經徘徊在一年前的水平。

　　盡管印度和日本對LNG市場的不利影響將被其他地區的需求強勁增長所抵消，但亞洲現貨LNG價格仍維持在8美元/百萬英國熱量單位以上，但隨著印度形勢的進一步惡化，LNG需求下行風險已經大大增加。

　　印度買家通常每周占3到4船LNG現貨貨物，但自4月初以來，由于多個邦都處于封鎖狀態，現貨需求已有所減少，最終用戶不太可能授予此前發布的招標，或為5月和6月交付的LNG進行現貨購買。

　　LNG交易商說，“印度對LNG現貨的需求已經完全枯竭。國內需求不確定。與此同時，夏季的價格和我們通常在冬季看到的一樣。印度的LNG再氣化量將以兩位數的速度下降。”

　　一家國有天然氣公司的高官表示：“由于大多數行業都受到了COVID-19的影響，印度國內天然氣需求比正常水平至少下降了10%。”他補充說，正常情況下，印度的天然氣年需求量約為2200萬至2300萬噸。

　　據交易商稱，印度國有巴拉特石油公司并未在4月20日就5月和6月的兩批LNG交付發出購買招標。印度私有的信誠工業公司正在進行招標，將于4月27日結束，6月1日至6日向達赫LNG終端交貨，市場參與者正在密切關注招標結果。

　　一家印度終端用戶表示，由于預計下游電力和天然氣需求會下降，可能會取消近期購買。該終端用戶通常每月購買一到兩船LNG貨物。這位終端用戶表示：“未來可能更大程度上是減少，這取決于封鎖的情況。”他補充稱，目前尚未發布不可抗力通知或延期請求。

　　LNG交易商稱，本周人們普遍擔心終端庫存將達到滿負荷，或“達頂”，但當聯系到終端運營商時，他們拒絕證實這一趨勢。

　　一家LNG供應商表示，盡管當地限制不像去年那么嚴格，但現貨需求下降可能壓低印度現貨LNG價格，并進一步擴大JKM-WIM液化天然氣的價差。4月26日，JKM-WIM價差為40美分/百萬英國熱量單位。

　　李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

　　原文如下：

　　India's pandemic, Japan's restrictions dampen Asia's spot LNG demand

　　Asia's LNG demand has been dampened by the worsening pandemic in India, that is expected to curb gas and power demand, with spot cargoes already impacted, and the declaration of emergency in Japan, where imports are already hovering near year-ago levels.

　　While the adverse impact of India and Japan on the LNG market will be offset by stronger growth in other regions, and spot Asian LNG prices remain supported at more than $8/MMBtu, downside risks have increased especially with the deteriorating situation in India.

　　Indian buyers typically account for three to four spot LNG cargoes per week, but spot demand has been curtailed since the start of April as lockdowns spread across several states, and end-users were unlikely to award previously issued tenders, or make spot purchases for deliveries in May and June.

　　"Demand for spot LNG cargoes has completely dried up. Domestic demand is uncertain. And at the same time, prices in the summer season are what we see normally during the winter. I would think regasification volumes are down by double-digit levels," an India-based LNG trader said.

　　A senior official at a state gas company said: "Domestic demand for gas is down by at least 10% from the usual levels since most of the sectors are feeling the impact of COVID-19." He added that India's gas demand during normal times was around 22 million-23 million mt/year.

　　State-run Bharat Petroleum Corp did not award an April 20 buy tender for two May and June deliveries, according to traders. Privately-held Reliance Industries has an ongoing tender, which closes April 27, for a June 1-6 delivery into Dahej LNG terminal, and market participants are watching its results closely.

　　One Indian end-user, that typically buys one or two LNG cargoes a month, said it might cancel near-term purchases in anticipation of lower downstream power and gas demand. "Going forward it might be more [of a fall] depending on the lockdown situation," the end-user said, adding that no force majeure notices, or deferment requests has been issued.

　　LNG traders cited widespread concerns of terminal inventories reaching full capacity, or 'tank-top', this week, but when contacted, terminal operators declined to confirm this trend.

　　While local restrictions are not as stringent as last year, the fall in spot demand could depress Indian spot LNG prices and widen the JKM-WIM LNG spread even further, according to an LNG supplier. On April 26,It had assessed the JKM-WIM price differential at 40 cents/MMBtu.

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