據5月7日Oil & Gas Journal報道，Rystad Energy表示，全球液化天然氣（LNG）市場在2025年后繼續擴張，但由于莫桑比克液化天然氣項目可能推遲開發，市場將變得更加緊張，甚至可能出現供應短缺。

　　莫桑比克曾一度有望在2025年左右躋身全球液化天然氣生產國的前列，但道達爾最近宣布的不可抗力標志著其莫桑比克陸上液化天然氣綜合設施存在無限期推遲的可能，加上受影響的Rovuma液化天然氣項目，這兩個項目每年的液化天然氣生產能力為2800萬噸。

　　在2026年至2030年期間，市場可能會減少多達900萬噸/年的供應，從而破壞全球供需平衡。Rystad Energy此前預測，2026年的市場將基本平衡，但現在，對可用產量的競爭可能會更激烈，從而導致價格上行風險和更高的價格波動。

　　同樣，如果Rovuma液化天然氣1520萬噸/年的潛在產能無法獲得，原本預測的2027-2028年的寬松市場狀況可能會變得更加平衡。最后，在2029年和2030年期間，由于預計全球液化天然氣需求激增，市場可能再次吃緊，并面臨供應短缺，因為Rovuma液化天然氣可能要到2030年才能達到穩定產量。

　　在最新的預測中，由于莫桑比克兩個項目的延遲，2026年預計將出現400萬噸/年的供應過剩，低于之前預測的640萬噸/年。影響將在2027年擴大，導致預期的供應過剩從之前的1590萬噸/年縮減到1100萬噸/年。最大的降幅發生在2028年，供應過剩被限制在僅100萬噸/年，低于此前預測的930萬噸/年。

　　如果預期的供應產能擴建延遲成為現實，2029年液化天然氣供應將出現5.6百萬桶/天的缺口，而不是之前預計的200萬桶/天的過剩。這種影響將持續下去，但將從2030年開始趨于穩定，預計供應缺口為170萬噸/年，而不是預期100萬噸/年。

　　莫桑比克液化天然氣(Mozambique LNG)和Rovuma液化天然氣項目建設的延期讓液化天然氣的買家和賣家都感到警醒。莫桑比克擁有一個龐大的、低成本的資源基地，使其液化天然氣項目具有很強的競爭力，而且該國地理位置便利，可以滿足亞洲的需求。Rystad估計，莫桑比克LNG項目的盈虧平衡點為5-7美元/百萬英熱。

　　Rystad Energy預測，在新的再氣化能力和更多天然氣產能的推動下，需求將繼續增長，從現在到2024年，液化天然氣市場將日趨緊張，導致亞洲現貨價格達到850美元/百萬英熱。

　　Rystad此前預計，隨著大量液化項目的建設，2025年左右新一波供應進入市場，將形成價格下行周期，亞洲現貨價格將降至接近2027年美國液化天然氣5.7美元/百萬英熱的短期邊際成本水平。然而，莫桑比克項目的潛在延誤意味著，在2025年左右，出現長期緊張局面的風險越來越大。

　　因此，2025年亞洲現貨價格可能會保持在8美元/百萬英熱以上。2026年至2029年期間的價格下行風險也因市場更為平衡而降低，雖然價格預計將下降，但到2027年價格保持在6美元/百萬英熱以上的可能性更大。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　LNG market faces supply deficit from decade-long impact of Mozambique delays

　　The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, which was set to be constantly loose in the second part of this decade, is instead set to get tighter and could even see annual supply deficits because of likely delays in development of Mozambique LNG projects due to the country’s worsening security situation, Rystad Energy said.

　　Mozambique was once poised to rise to the upper ranks of global LNG producers by the middle the decade, but Total’s recent force majeure declaration signals indefinite delays on its onshore Mozambique LNG complex (OGJ Online, Apr. 26, 2021). The violent insurgencies also threaten ExxonMobil’s yet-to-be sanctioned Rovuma LNG. Together the two projects represent 28 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity.

　　The market could see up to 9 mtpa of supply removed between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global balances. Rystad Energy had previously forecasted a largely balanced market in 2026, but now there could be more competition for available volumes that year, leading to an upside risk in prices and higher price volatility.

　　Similarly, the loose market conditions of 2027-2028 that had been originally forecasted could become more balanced if Rovuma LNG’s 15.2 mtpa of potential capacity is unavailable. Finally, across 2029 and 2030, the market could tighten again and face supply deficits amid an expected surge in global LNG demand, as Rovuma LNG may only reach plateau production after 2030.

　　In an updated forecast, which accounts for delays in the two projects in Mozambique, an oversupply of 4 mtpa is expected in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 6.4 mtpa. The impact of the delays will grow in 2027, causing the expected oversupply to shrink to 11 mtpa from previously forecast 15.9 mtpa. The largest downgrade is for 2028, with oversupply being limited to just 1 mtpa, down from 9.3 mtpa in the previous forecast.

　　If the expected delays materialize, 2029 will see an LNG supply deficit of 5.6 mpta instead of a previously expected surplus of 2 mtpa. The effect will persist but will begin to level from 2030, with an expected supply deficit of 1.7 mtpa instead of a surplus of 1 mtpa.

　　Delays for Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG are sobering for LNG buyers and sellers alike. Mozambique has a large, low-cost resource base—making its LNG projects highly competitive—and the country is conveniently located to serve upcoming demand in Asia. Rystad estimates DES Asia break-evens of Mozambique’s LNG projects to be $5-7/MMbtu.

　　Rystad Energy forecasts a tightening LNG market between now and 2024 as demand continues to grow, driven by new regasification capacity and more gas-power generation, resulting in Asian spot prices reaching $8.5/MMbtu.

　　With a strong pipeline of liquefaction projects under construction, Rystad previously expected that a new wave of supplies coming into the market around 2025 would create a downward cycle in prices, with the Asian spot price dropping to a level closer to the short-run marginal cost of US LNG of $5.7/MMbtu in 2027. However, the potential delay of the Mozambican projects means that there is now an increasing risk of prolonged period of tightness midway through this decade, and that lower prices could be seen 1-2 years later than previously expected.

　　As a result, Asian spot prices could remain above $8/MMbtu in 2025. The downside risk in prices between 2026 and 2029 is also reduced by a better-balanced market – while prices are expected to decline, there is higher likelihood for them to remain above $6/MMbtu in 2027.

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