據(jù)道瓊斯5月6日消息，全球最大的大宗商品交易商之一的托克集團首席經(jīng)濟學家Saad Rahim在美國富瑞金融集團主辦的一次電話會議上稱，大宗商品價格還有更多上漲空間，因為我們還處于看漲周期的早期，一些關(guān)鍵的需求驅(qū)動因素尚未發(fā)揮作用。美國富瑞金融集團指出，導(dǎo)致市場趨于緊俏的關(guān)鍵基本面因素將是強勁的需求增長，特別是亞洲最大國家以外地區(qū)的需求增長，以及嚴重的供應(yīng)限制，這意味著未來一至三年大宗商品價格有很大上行潛力。該投行表示：“Rahim解釋了原因，可以說，當前出現(xiàn)短缺的風險更大，原因包括新項目的交貨期延長、缺乏對增加供應(yīng)的投資，以及非常樂觀的需求前景。”

　　張春曉 摘譯自 道瓊斯

　　原文如下：

　　Global Commodities' Rally Is Far From Over, Trafigura Says

　　Commodity prices have more room to run, as we are still early in the bullish cycle and some key demand drivers haven't yet kicked in, Trafigura's chief economist Saad Rahim says in a call hosted by Jefferies. Key fundamentals tightening the market will be strong demand growth, especially outside the biggest country in Asia, and major supply constraints, which imply significant upside potential to prices over the next 1-3 years, Jefferies says. "Saad explained why...there is arguably a greater risk of shortages emerging today due to lengthening lead times for new projects, a lack of investment in supply growth, and a very positive demand outlook," the bank says. Trafigura is one of the largest commodity traders in the world.

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