據Oil & Gas Journal網站5月13日消息 國際能源署（IEA）分析稱，原油價格上漲尚未引發美國頁巖油反彈。

　　由于業務周期短，美國頁巖油行業以其對價格信號的快速反應能力而聞名，這種情況在2020年第二季度COVID-19疫情之初再次出現，當時市場崩潰導致運營商停產130萬桶/日，并將年度資本預算平均削減50%以上。

　　然而，今年盡管WTI價格已升至疫情前的60美元/桶以上，但國際能源機構預測，美國頁巖油僅會小幅上漲。2021年的出口量將為730萬桶/日，比2020年初的水平低了近100萬桶/日。

　　IEA表示：“自2014-2015年價格暴跌以來，越來越多的美國頁巖油運營商將重點放在資本紀律和回報股東上，而不是實現產量增長的雄心壯志上。雖然在降低成本方面取得了相當大的成功，但運營商往往無法抵制增加活動和產量，以利用價格上漲的機會。2021年4月，陸地鉆機數量為423臺（EIA DPR），高于2020年8月的最低點236臺，但仍比2020年第一季度平均值762臺（當時WTI為57美元/桶，與2021年第一季度平均價格基本持平）低339臺。”

　　2020年第四季度，當公司設定2021年資本和生產目標時，油價平均比2021年第一季度低15美元/桶（35%）。盡管如此，在第一季度財報電話會議上，各大巨頭對此前公司層面的指導意見幾乎沒有改變。就美國而言，雪佛龍預計其二疊紀盆地產量今年下降5%，而埃克森美孚僅將其美國產量預測上調了3.75%，這是在不增加計劃支出的情況下實現。雷普索爾是美國上游投資增長10%的例外（集團預算不變，只是重新分配），但由于該公司試圖降低碳排放強度，該公司專注于天然氣業務。與此同時，IEA追蹤的美國重點獨立人士組成的同行團體集體幾乎未調整計劃。投資將同比增長5%，但仍將比2019年支出低48%，生產將比2020年水平低3%。

　　王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Higher prices yet to trigger rebound in US shale

　　Higher crude oil prices have yet to trigger rebound in US shale oil, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis.

　　The US shale oil industry has become renowned for its ability to respond swiftly to price signals, thanks to the short-cycle nature of operations. This was seen again at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in second-quarter 2020 when the market crash caused operators to shut in 1.3 million b/d of production and slash annual capital budgets by over 50% (on average).

　　However, this year, despite WTI prices having risen to pre-pandemic levels above $60/bbl, IEA forecasts US shale oil to increase only modestly and reach a 2021 exit rate of 7.3 million b/d. This is almost 1 million b/d below early 2020 levels.

　　“Since the 2014-15 price crash, more and more of the US shale operators have focused on capital discipline and rewarding shareholders ahead of production growth ambitions. While there has been considerable success in driving down costs, operators have often been unable to resist increasing activity and production to take advantage of higher prices. Until now. In April 2021, the land rig count stood at 423 (EIA DPR), higher than the nadir of 236 in August 2020, but still 339 below the 2020 first quarter average of 762 when WTI was $57/bbl, much the same as the 2021 first quarter average price,” IEA said.

　　In fourth-quarter 2020, when companies set 2021 capital and production targets, oil prices averaged $15/bbl (35%) lower than first-quarter 2021. Despite this, in first-quarter earnings calls, the majors made little changes to previous company-level guidance. In relation to the US, Chevron sees its Permian basin volumes declining 5% this year while Exxon made only a 3.75% upward revision to its US production forecast. This is to be achieved without higher planned spend. Repsol is the outlier with a 10% rise in US upstream investment (group budget is unchanged, just reallocated), but focused on gas plays as the company tries to reduce activity carbon intensity. Meanwhile, the IEA-tracked peer group of US-focused independents has collectively left plans almost untouched. Investment will rise 5% y-o-y, but will remain 48% below 2019 spend, and production will hold 3% below 2020 levels.

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