據能源世界網5月24日報道，高盛（goldmansachs）表示，預計今年第四季度油價將攀升至每桶80美元，市場也低估了需求反彈。

　　該銀行在周日的報告中表示，因此，面對缺乏彈性的供應，疫苗驅動的需求大幅增加，油價上漲的理由依然存在。

　　高盛表示，發達市場的需求復蘇將抵消最近新冠疫情對消費的沖擊，以及南亞和拉丁美洲可能放緩的復蘇。截至年底，全球原油日需求量可能增加460萬桶，大部分增幅可能在未來3個月實現。

　　該報告表示，隨著疫苗接種加速和封鎖解除，美國和歐洲的流動性正在迅速增加，貨運和工業活動也在激增。

　　該行還預計，OPEC+將在2021年下半年停止兩個月增產

。　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman sees oil hitting $80/bbl despite likely return of Iran supply

　　Goldman Sachs said it expects oil prices to climb to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, arguing that the market has underestimated a rebound in demand.

　　"The case for higher oil prices therefore remains intact given the large vaccine-driven increase in demand in the face of inelastic supply," the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

　　Goldman Sachs said a demand recovery in developed markets would offset a recent coronavirus-led hit to consumption and likely slower recovery in South Asia and Latin America.

　　Global demand could increase by 4.6 million barrels per day through year-end, with most of the gains likely in the next 3 months, it said.

　　"Mobility is rapidly increasing in the U.S. and Europe, as vaccinations accelerate and lockdowns are lifted, with freight and industrial activity also surging," the note said.

　　The bank also expects the Organization of the Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, to offset any ramp-up in Iran production by halting for two months an increase in its output in the second half of 2021.

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