據6月3日PV-magazine報道，雖然太陽能行業高管可能會被今年主要市場光伏投資預期所吸引，要知道，光伏行業投資預計將增長10%，但國際能源署(IEA)最新全球投資調查中更引人關注的點是關于全球油氣巨頭對未來的擔憂情緒。

　　最新的年度報告顯示，非國有化石燃料公司正在放棄新油氣田的勘探，轉而開發現有儲量。隨著英國石油(BP)、道達爾(Total)、殼牌(Shell)和埃尼(Eni)等公司承諾加大清潔能源支出，以安撫激進的投資者，加上新冠肺炎疫情加速了綠色能源市場的發展，石油和天然氣巨頭可能正在退出化石燃料行業。

　　IEA研究指出，中東地區的天然氣儲量將使該國的國有企業在短期內彌補過剩產能和市場份額，正如卡塔爾宣布的雄心勃勃的液化天然氣投資計劃所證明的那樣。但即使在卡塔爾，能源轉型的影響也得到了印證，因為開發新礦藏的計劃伴隨著對碳捕獲、碳利用和封存碳的巨大投資承諾，IEA預測，在一年內，這項尚未得到證實的技術可能會發揮關鍵作用，這將為化石燃料巨頭提供更多的適應時間。

　　談到太陽能方面，IEA稱，2020年，太陽能技術的進展被可再生能源——風能的間歇性進展所取代，盡管令人困惑的是，該報告稱全球風能裝機容量幾乎翻了一番，達到114吉瓦，美國占15吉瓦。

　　IEA預計，今年光伏投資將超過風能投資，美國和歐洲的增幅將超過10%。這一預測讓太陽能企業感到欣慰。

　　即使是在大規模太陽能項目撤出市場的情況下，小規模的太陽能安裝項目也在增加，國際能源署指出，在越南，大規模激勵計劃的減少被小規模的屋頂太陽能項目所抵消，太陽能裝機容量增加了9吉瓦。

　　報告估計今年的支出將增長近10%,至1.9萬億美元, 其中包括5300億美元的新增發電產能投資，其中70%將用于清潔能源。IEA表示，去年創紀錄的可持續債務和綠色債券發行水平意味著有大量現金可用于可再生能源，但沒有足夠的高質量項目或專用渠道來確保它轉化為切實的落地項目設施，如太陽能面板或風能渦輪機。

　　2020年，電池儲能投資增長近40%，至55億美元，其中電網規模的設施增加了60%。該報告沒有給出部署的新增容量的大小，但指出電池成本在2020年平均下降了20%。

　　在綠氫方面：去年的低碳氫支出也達到了創紀錄的水平，報告稱，有價值7000萬美元的電解槽投入使用，雖然大多數電解槽至少在初期看來，仍將依靠電網供電。

　　電能和綠氫也占了新興能源公司的風險投資的很大一部分，尤其是在美國和歐洲。IEA報告稱，越來越謹慎的機構投資者們正開始在其投資組合中增加此類創新企業，這可能是化石燃料行業未來不景氣的又一個影響因素。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 PV-magazine

　　原文如下：

　　Are oil and gas companies on the run?

　　While solar industry executives are likely to be drawn to estimates such as an anticipated 10% rise in PV investment in key markets this year, the more headline-grabbing content of the International Energy Agency‘s latest global investment survey may concern the world's oil and gas majors.

　　The latest edition of the annual report cites figures which demonstrate non-state-owned fossil fuel companies are pulling away from exploration in favor of exploiting their existing reserves. With companies such as BP, Total, Shell and Eni pledging to ramp up clean energy spending to placate activist investors, market developments accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic appear to point to the fact the oil and gas majors could be on the retreat from fossil fuels.

　　The International Energy Agency (IEA) study notes the reserves held in the Middle East will enable state-owned players there to pick up the slack – and market share – in the short term, as demonstrated by ambitious liquefied natural gas investment plans announced by Qatar. Even in Qatar, though, the effects of the energy transition are acknowledged by the fact plans to develop new deposits have been accompanied by a big commitment to invest in carbon capture, use and storage, in a year the IEA predicts could be pivotal for the as-yet unproven technology, which would offer fossil fuel majors more time to adapt.

　　Back on the solar beat, the IEA document said the technology was eclipsed by the progress of rival intermittent renewable power source wind last year, although, confusingly, the numbers don't stack up where the report states global wind capacity almost doubled to 114 GW, led by more than 15 GW in the U.S. pv magazine has asked the IEA about the apparent discrepancy.

　　Solar companies can take solace from the IEA's prediction PV spending will surpass wind investment this year, with a rise of more than 10% in the U.S. and Europe, following a year which saw new PV generation capacity deployment rise almost 25%, to nearly 135 GW.

　　Even in markets where large scale solar retreated, there was an uptick in small scale installations, with the IEA pointing to Vietnam, where the winding down of a large scale incentive program was counterbalanced by rooftop arrays – with 9 GW added.

　　With the report estimating total energy spending will rebound almost 10% to $1.9 trillion this year – including $530 billion for new generation capacity of which 70% will be devoted to clean power – the IEA said record levels of sustainable debt and green bond issuance last year mean there is plenty of cash available for renewables, but not enough high-quality projects or dedicated channels to ensure it translates into panels – or turbines – on the ground.

　　The document reported battery storage investment rose almost 40% last year, to $5.5 billion, with grid scale facilities accounting for a 60% rise. The report did not give a megawatt-hour volume for the new capacities deployed, but did note battery costs fell an average 20% during 2020.

　　Green hydrogen

　　Low-carbon hydrogen spending also hit record levels last year with the report stating $70 million worth of electrolyzers came online although the majority of them will “run on grid electricity, at least initially.”

　　Storage and green hydrogen also accounted for a healthy chunk of the venture capital funding which flowed into start-up energy companies, notably in the U.S. and Europe. The fact more cautious institutional investors are starting to have exposure to such innovative companies in their portfolios, according to the IEA report, could be another indicator of lean times ahead for the fossil fuel industry.

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