據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月4日?qǐng)?bào)道,俄羅斯財(cái)會(huì)商會(huì)(Russian Accounts Chamber)主席阿列克謝?庫(kù)德林(Alexei Kudrin)本周對(duì)媒體表示,全球煤炭消費(fèi)已經(jīng)超過(guò)峰值,未來(lái)10年內(nèi)可能會(huì)達(dá)到石油消費(fèi)峰值。
這位官員指出,未來(lái)十年,俄羅斯需要學(xué)會(huì)減少對(duì)石油出口收入的依賴。其補(bǔ)充道,否則,20年后,這將成為一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。
庫(kù)德林表示,與此同時(shí),現(xiàn)在有必要進(jìn)行投資,使俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化,不再依賴石油。他指出,俄羅斯正在朝著這個(gè)方向采取措施,特別是在經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化和科學(xué)創(chuàng)新方面。也許我們應(yīng)該早點(diǎn)開(kāi)始朝這個(gè)方向努力。
財(cái)會(huì)商會(huì)負(fù)責(zé)人的評(píng)論與俄羅斯財(cái)政部副部長(zhǎng)早些時(shí)候的評(píng)論相呼應(yīng)。
Vladimir Kolychev在去年的一次采訪中告訴彭博社,消費(fèi)高峰可能已經(jīng)過(guò)去,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在上升。
俄羅斯近來(lái)更加關(guān)注石油需求高峰的前景,俄羅斯議會(huì)能源委員會(huì)主席杜馬今年4月曾表示,“一切能生產(chǎn)的都應(yīng)該在仍有需求出售的時(shí)候生產(chǎn)”。
與其他大型石油出口國(guó)一樣,俄羅斯將尋求盡可能快地將其油氣資源貨幣化。
俄羅斯是世界三大石油出口國(guó)之一,與沙特阿拉伯和美國(guó)并駕齊驅(qū)。該國(guó)的石油儲(chǔ)量至少可以維持目前的產(chǎn)量到2080年,天然氣儲(chǔ)量也可以再維持103年。政府還投入了數(shù)十億美元——準(zhǔn)確地說(shuō)是1100億美元——在東西伯利亞開(kāi)發(fā)新的石油儲(chǔ)備,每年開(kāi)發(fā)1億噸新原油。這大約是該國(guó)2019年年產(chǎn)量的五分之一。
郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下:
Peak Oil Demand May Be Ten Years Away
The world is past peak coal consumption and may reach peak oil consumption within the next ten years, Alexei Kudrin, the head of the Russian Accounts Chamber, told media this week.
The official noted Russia will need to learn to rely less on oil export revenues over these next ten years. Otherwise, Kudrin added, this will become a serious problem in 20 years.
Meanwhile, investments are necessary now to diversify the Russian economy away from oil, Kudrin said, noting steps being made in that direction, specifically in the digitalization of the economy and in science and innovation.
"Maybe we should have started working in that direction a bit sooner," the official said.
The remarks of the Accounts Chamber's head echo earlier comments made by Russia's deputy financial minister.
"The peak of consumption may have already passed," Vladimir Kolychev told Bloomberg in an interview last year. "The risk is rising in the longer term."
Russia has been paying more attention to the prospect of peak oil demand recently, with the head of the energy committee at the Russian parliament, the Duma, saying in April that "Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it."
Like other large oil exporters, Russia will be seeking to monetize as much of its oil and gas resources as quickly as it can.
Russia is one of the three biggest oil exporters in the world, alongside Saudi Arabia and the United States. It has enough oil to keep producing at current rates at least until 2080, with enough gas reserves to last for another 103 years. And the state is pouring billions—$110 billion to be precise—into developing new oil reserves in eastern Siberia to tap 100 million tons of new crude annually. That's about a fifth of the country's annual output in 2019.
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