據(jù)6月15日Rigzone消息：原油市場(chǎng)上一些知名交易員一致表示，原油價(jià)格在今年迄今上漲近50%后將繼續(xù)攀升。
周二，紐約期貨價(jià)格上漲1.8%，達(dá)到2018年10月以來(lái)的最高水平。在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》全球大宗商品峰會(huì)上，嘉能可(Glencore)和維托爾集團(tuán)(Vitol Group)均表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將進(jìn)一步上漲。Trafigura首席執(zhí)行官Jeremy Weir稱，由于該行業(yè)投資及供應(yīng)不足，原油價(jià)格甚至有可能達(dá)到每桶100美元。
Again Capital合伙人John Kilduff表示："所有人都在計(jì)算需求上升和生產(chǎn)商不愿重返市場(chǎng)、向市場(chǎng)注入更多石油的問(wèn)題。因此，結(jié)構(gòu)性供需缺口正在不斷擴(kuò)大。"
隨著新冠肺炎疫苗接種計(jì)劃的加速，原油價(jià)格今年大幅上漲。在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》全球大宗商品峰會(huì)上，嘉能可(Glencore)的Alex Sanna表示，全球需求應(yīng)在明年第三季度恢復(fù)正常，而原油價(jià)格可能因更廣泛的疫苗接種和通脹壓力而走高。Vitol首席執(zhí)行官Russell Hardy表示，盡管柴油和石化產(chǎn)品需求已經(jīng)處于疫情前水平，但油價(jià)仍有"更多上行空間"。
與此同時(shí)，資金繼續(xù)更廣泛地流向大宗商品領(lǐng)域。美國(guó)銀行對(duì)基金經(jīng)理的月度調(diào)查顯示，看漲大宗商品的押注已經(jīng)超過(guò)比特幣，成為市場(chǎng)上最擁擠的交易。
價(jià)格:
7月交貨的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格上漲1.24美元，收于每桶72.12美元。8月份交割的布倫特原油期貨上漲1.13美元，收于每桶73.99美元。
進(jìn)一步看石油期貨曲線，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了供應(yīng)緊張的跡象。周二，最近的兩份西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油12月份合約的價(jià)差收于每桶6美元以上，為2019年9月以來(lái)的最高收盤水平，這表明交易員押注市場(chǎng)將走強(qiáng)。
彭博社的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，美國(guó)上周的原油庫(kù)存預(yù)計(jì)已下降250萬(wàn)桶。由行業(yè)資助的美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)將在周二晚些時(shí)候報(bào)告其庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)，而美國(guó)政府將在周三公布其庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)。
Kilduff說(shuō):“從不斷減少庫(kù)存和讓我們?cè)谌蚍秶鷥?nèi)恢復(fù)緊縮的角度來(lái)看，現(xiàn)在是關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻。”
然而，在夏季駕駛季節(jié)開(kāi)始之際，國(guó)內(nèi)燃料需求卻顯得有些低迷。美國(guó)汽油供應(yīng)目前處于三個(gè)月高位，汽油裂解價(jià)差約為三個(gè)多月低位。
瑞穗證券期貨部門主管Bob Yawger表示，在5月份colonial管道關(guān)閉后，運(yùn)營(yíng)商的汽油進(jìn)口量可能超過(guò)了需求。
馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Price Rally for 2021 Approaches 50%
Oil climbed as a chorus of prominent traders in the crude market said prices will continue to rise after a nearly 50% rally so far this year.
Futures in New York advanced 1.8% on Tuesday to the highest level since October 2018. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore Plc and Vitol Group both said they see further gains in oil. There’s even a chance crude prices could hit $100 a barrel on a lack of supply amid underinvestment in the sector, according to Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir.
“Everybody’s continuing to do the math on rising demand and hesitancy among producers to dive back in and put more oil in the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, LLC. “So there’s a developing structural supply-demand deficit.”
Crude has soared this year in the wake of accelerating Covid-19 vaccination programs. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore’s Alex Sanna said global demand should return to normal in the third quarter of next year, and crude prices may move higher on more widespread vaccinations and inflationary pressures. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said while diesel and petrochemical demand is already at pre-Covid levels, there is a “l(fā)ittle bit more upside” for oil prices.
Meanwhile, money continues to rotate into the commodities sector more broadly. A monthly survey of fund managers by Bank of America showed that bullish commodities bets had overtaken Bitcoin as the most crowded trade in markets.
Prices:
West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery advanced $1.24 to settle at $72.12 a barrel.
Brent for August settlement gained $1.13 to end the session at $73.99 a barrel.
Further along the oil futures curve, there are signs of market tightness. The difference between the nearest two WTI December contracts on Tuesday closed at more than $6 a barrel, the strongest close since September 2019, a sign traders are betting on a stronger market.
In the U.S., crude stockpiles are expected to have dropped 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will report its inventory data later Tuesday, while the U.S. government will release its tally on Wednesday.
“It’s crunch time here in terms of drawing down continuously on inventories and getting us back to tightness globally,” said Kilduff. “That’s helping to grind higher.”
However, domestic fuel demand has been somewhat lackluster at the start of the summer driving season. U.S. gasoline supplies are currently sitting at the highest in three months and the gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit from refining crude into fuel, is at around the lowest in more than three months.
Operators may have juiced imports of gasoline more than needed in the wake of the Colonial pipeline shutdown back in May, according to Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.
“You would think with crude oil ripping like this, it would drag the products along for the ride and it almost always does,” said Yawger. “You rarely see a disconnect this bad.”
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