據世界石油網站7月5日消息 布倫特油價自2018年以來首次升至每桶77美元以上，此前歐佩克+未能就恢復削減的產量達成協議，導致市場供應比預期更為緊張。

　　倫敦期貨價格漲幅高達1.2%。該集團的石油部長們未能達成妥協，維持目前8月份的產量限制，并在需求從疫情中恢復之際，剝奪了市場所需的額外產量。

　　TD證券分析師丹尼爾加利在電話中表示：“從目前的情況來看，這是一個相當看好油價的情況，我們應該看到能源市場收緊的速度比我們最近幾個月預期的要快。”

　　在周一的談判之前，由于沙特堅持從8月份開始提高產量，并將歐佩克+協議延長至2022年底，而阿聯酋則為自己尋求更好的條件，談判從上周開始推遲。該集團未能增加供應，將進一步擠壓本已緊張的市場，引發對通脹的擔憂。

　　大多數歐佩克成員國支持一項提議，即從8月份起每月增產40萬桶/天，并將更廣泛的供應協議的到期時間推遲到明年年底。為了同意延期，阿聯酋試圖改變用于計算配額的基準線，此舉可能使其日產量多增加70萬桶。

　　6月原油連續第三個月上漲，因為廣泛的疫苗接種幫助恢復了需求，而歐佩克+抑制了供應，但油價創下兩年多來的最高點，引發了人們對其對全球經濟影響的擔憂，白宮已經對汽油價格上漲表示擔憂。

　　盡管歐洲和美國的需求信號強勁，但病毒在亞洲部分地區再次蔓延，導致行動受到更多限制。

　　摩根士丹利估計，從5月至6月，全球石油日需求將增加300萬桶。由于其它地區的供應增長甚微，即便是歐佩克提出的增產計劃，也很可能使市場陷入赤字，這將支撐布倫特原油價格在該行今年下半年每桶75-80美元的預測區間內。

　　吳恒磊編譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　://www.worldoil.com/

　　Brent crude passes $77 as OPEC fails to reach new oil output deal

　　(Bloomberg) - Brent oil prices rose above $77 a barrel for the first time since 2018 after OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on bringing back curtailed output, leaving the market with tighter supplies than expected.

　　Futures rose as much as 1.2% in London. The group’s oil ministers were unable to reach a compromise, keeping current production limits in place for August and depriving the market from the extra barrels it needs as demand recovers from the pandemic.

　　“As things stand now, this is quite a bullish scenario for oil prices,” TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali said by phone. “We should see the energy market tighten up at a faster pace than we anticipated in recent months.”

　　Talks on Monday followed a delay from last week as the Saudis stood firm about raising output starting in August and extending the OPEC+ agreement to the end of 2022, while the United Arab Emirates sought better terms for itself. The failure by the group to increase supply will further squeeze an already tight market, raising concerns over inflation.

　　Most OPEC+ members backed a proposal to increase output by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August, and push back the expiry of the broader supply deal into the end of next year. To agree to an extension, the UAE sought to change the baseline that’s used to calculate its quota, a move that could allow it to boost daily production by an extra 700,000 barrels.

　　Crude rose for a third month in June as widespread Covid-19 vaccinations have helped revive demand while OPEC+ has curbed supply. But prices at the highest in more than two years have raised worries over its impact on the global economy, and the White House is already voicing concern about rising gasoline prices.

　　While demand signals are strong in Europe and the U.S., the virus is spreading again in parts of Asia, resulting in increased restrictions on movement.

　　Morgan Stanley estimates global daily oil demand is set to increase by 3 million barrels from the May-June period to December. With little supply growth elsewhere, even the proposed increase from OPEC+ will likely keep the market in deficit. That will support Brent prices within the bank’s forecast range of $75 to $80 a barrel in the second half of this year.

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