據(jù)7月1日CNBC報道，一些全球最強(qiáng)大的石油生產(chǎn)國將于周四開會，決定下一階段的原油生產(chǎn)政策。
在此次歐佩克+會議召開之際，正值該組織對市場狀況改善和燃料需求增長前景相對樂觀之際，要知道，油價在今年上半年大幅反彈。
這個以中東為主導(dǎo)的產(chǎn)油國集團(tuán)同意在2020年大規(guī)模削減原油產(chǎn)量，以支撐油價，當(dāng)時新冠肺炎疫情帶來歷史性的燃料需求沖擊。
該組織由沙特阿拉伯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，每月會啟動會議，以指導(dǎo)生產(chǎn)政策，并宣布計劃在5月至7月期間增加210萬桶/天的供應(yīng)。歐佩克+將在周四決定是維持當(dāng)前的生產(chǎn)政策不變，還是進(jìn)一步增加供應(yīng)。
分析人士表示，最可能的結(jié)果是將8月份原油日產(chǎn)量增加約50萬桶。
市場分析師米格利表示："歐佩克+謹(jǐn)小慎微，要在不影響消費(fèi)者信心的情況下維持更有吸引力的價格，同時在秋季需求疲軟前不增加太多供應(yīng)。"
PVM石油聯(lián)合公司(PVM oil Associates)的石油分析師斯蒂芬?布倫諾克(Stephen Brennock)在一份研究報告中表示:“全球石油市場要求大幅增加供應(yīng)，但沙特不太可能滿足市場需要。石油的回報低于預(yù)期，下半年，應(yīng)該會繼續(xù)減少庫存。但同時，這也讓市場確信，歐佩克+，或者更確切地說，沙特阿拉伯完全控制了石油市場。”
倫敦早盤交易時段，布倫特原油期貨價格為每桶75.47美元，上漲1.1%。美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價格為每桶74.28美元，漲幅也在1.1%左右。
今年以來，受新冠肺炎疫情形勢轉(zhuǎn)好，相關(guān)出行限制放寬、貨物運(yùn)輸增加和航空旅行增加的支持，油價已上漲逾45%。華爾街的分析師認(rèn)為，未來幾個月仍有很大的上漲空間。
然而，新型冠狀病毒在全球的傳播加劇了人們對石油需求受挫的擔(dān)憂。
摩根士丹利首席石油分析師Martijn Rats表示：“"我認(rèn)為產(chǎn)油國們會相當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎。歐佩克在未來18個月需要把握一些真正的不確定性，比如需求復(fù)蘇的準(zhǔn)確軌跡，以及頁巖行業(yè)到底會如何發(fā)展。出于這些原因，我認(rèn)為他們理所當(dāng)然地會采取相當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎的做法。”
Rats稱，從歷史上看，非歐佩克供應(yīng)商會利用油價上漲的機(jī)會增加投資，開發(fā)更多油田，并奪回市場份額。但在當(dāng)前情況下，這種情形似乎不會發(fā)生。因為，非歐佩克國家對高油價幾乎沒有任何投資反應(yīng)。因此，歐佩克在保持油價高企方面也處于一個比較有利的地位，而不必?fù)?dān)心最終失去市場份額的威脅。預(yù)計歐佩克+將從8月起增加約50萬桶/天的原油供應(yīng)。
6月，歐佩克表示，預(yù)計今年石油需求將增加600萬桶/天，其中500萬桶/天的產(chǎn)能將在2021年下半年恢復(fù)。
歐佩克秘書長巴金多在聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會會議上表示:“疫情后市場恢復(fù)的整體光明前景，已導(dǎo)致石油市場局勢和未來增長前景顯著改善。歐佩克和非歐佩克伙伴將繼續(xù)在加速石油市場再平衡過程中發(fā)揮重要和有價值的作用。"
王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC
原文如下：
OPEC and allies to decide on crude production policy as oil prices climb, demand recovers
A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will meet on Thursday to decide the next phase of their production policy.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance often referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference at 2 p.m. London time.
The meeting comes at a time when OPEC+ is relatively upbeat about improved market conditions and the outlook for fuel demand growth following a sharp rebound in oil prices over the first six months of the year.
The Middle East-dominated producer group agreed to implement massive crude productions cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.
The group, led by Saudi Arabia, has since initiated monthly meetings in a bid to navigate production policy and has already announced plans to increase supply by 2.1 million barrels per day between May and July. It will decide on Thursday whether to leave production policy unchanged or to ramp up supply further.
Analysts say the most probable outcome is for an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day in August.
Chris Midgley, global head of analytics , told CNBC via email that “OPEC is treading a tight rope to sustain more attractive prices without hurting consumer confidence while not adding too much supply ahead of the weaker Autumn shoulder period for demand,” Midgley said.
The timing is unclear, however, and the oil would have to be absorbed into OPEC’s production total if a deal is struck.
“The global oil market is calling out for a substantial increase in supplies, but the Saudis are unlikely to oblige,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note.
“A smaller than expected return of oil should ensure that the market continues to draw down inventories over [the second half of the year]. But just as importantly, it also leaves the market in no doubt that the OPEC+ alliance, or better said Saudi Arabia, has full control of the oil market,” Brennock said.
Market share
International Brent crude futures traded at $75.47 a barrel during mid-morning deals in London, up 1.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $74.28, also around 1.1% higher for the session.
Oil prices have rallied more than 45% year-to-date, supported by an easing of Covid-related restrictions, an uptick in goods transportation and increased air travel. Analysts on Wall Street still see plenty of room left to run in the coming months.
However, the spread of the delta Covid-19 variant worldwide has heightened concerns of a setback to oil demand. Renewed lockdown measures and rising costs have already resulted in slower factory growth in China, for instance.
“I think they will play it rather cautiously,” Martijn Rats, chief oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday.
“There are some genuine uncertainties that OPEC will need to navigate over the next 18 months, the precise trajectory of the demand recovery， And for those reasons, I think justifiably they will take a rather cautious approach.”
Historically, non-OPEC suppliers would look to take advantage of rising oil prices to increase investment, develop more oil fields and regain market share, Rats said.
“On this occasion, that doesn’t seem to be happening,” he added. “There is almost no non-OPEC investment response to these high oil prices. So, OPEC is also in somewhat of a more comfortable position perhaps to keep oil prices elevated without necessarily having to fear this historic threat of then losing market share eventually.”
Rats said he expected OPEC+ to increase supply of approximately 50 million barrels from August, “if not slightly below” this estimate.
Last month, OPEC said it expects oil demand to rise by 6 million barrels per day this year, with 5 million of that coming back in the second half of 2021.
“The overall brighter picture in relation to the pandemic recovery efforts has led to significantly improved oil market conditions and prospects for future growth,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at the meeting of the Joint Technical Committee on Tuesday.
OPEC and non-OPEC partners would “continue to play an important and valuable role in accelerating the oil market rebalancing process,” he added.
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