據Trade Arabia 7月11日報道：國際能源署 (IEA) 最新的一份報告顯示，天然氣需求將在2021年強勁反彈，預計全球需求將增長 3.6%，隨后在未來三年內將放緩至1.7% 的平均增長率。

　　IEA最新發布的季度天然氣市場報告補充稱，如果各國政府不實施強有力的政策，推動世界在本世紀中葉實現凈零排放，天然氣需求將進一步上升，該報告還提供了新的中期預測。預計到2024年，需求量將在2019年疫情前的水平上增長7%。

　　2021年的天然氣需求增長主要反映了經濟從Covid-19危機中的復蘇，但在接下來的幾年中，經濟活動和天然氣將在發電、工業和運輸等領域取代煤炭和石油等其他污染更嚴重的燃料，將以同等比例推動這一進程。2020年至2024 年間，天然氣需求增長的近一半來自亞太地區。

　　盡管未來幾年增長放緩，但到2024年的天然氣需求趨勢仍高于IEA氣候驅動情景下的軌跡，尤其是最近提出的路徑

　　報告稱，為了到2050年能實現凈零排放，需要采取新的措施來促進進一步的燃料替代和效率提升，特別是在更成熟的市場，尤其如此，在這些市場中從煤炭或石油轉向天然氣的潛力已經很大了。

　　IEA能源市場和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori 表示：“天然氣需求的反彈表明，全球經濟正在從這場大流行的沖擊中復蘇，天然氣正在繼續取代排放量更高的燃料。”

　　“但需要實施更強有力的政策，以使全球天然氣需求走上一條與2050 年實現凈零排放一致的道路，同時仍能促進經濟繁榮。這些措施包括確保更有效地使用天然氣。與此同時，天然氣行業需要加大力度轉向更清潔、低碳的氣體，并迅速有效地解決不必要的甲烷排放問題。”

　　新報告研究了天然氣行業如何減少其排放足跡，并與凈零排放目標保持一致。采取行動的關鍵領域包括在整個價值鏈中繼續降低行業溫室氣體排放的強度，支持低碳氣體的發展，以及開發碳管理解決方案以最大限度地減少燃燒產生的排放。尤其是，從時間和成本兩方面來看，減少甲烷排放量是縮小該行業足跡的有效方式。

　　報告中增加的需求預測可以通過在疫情大流行之前已經批準或正在開發的常規資產來滿足，主要是在俄羅斯和中東。美國頁巖氣生產的新投資也可能補充供應，以支持目前正在開發的液化天然氣 (LNG) 的出口能力。

　　該報告指出了液化天然氣對確保靈活和安全供應的貢獻，特別是來自美國，美國占未來三年將投產的新增液化天然氣產能的絕大部分。

　　液化天然氣運輸船隊的強勁增長也將使供應更具可調整性，目前的訂單表明未來兩到三年船舶數量將增加25%。地下存儲容量是另一個關鍵的靈活性來源，預計在預測期內將增加7%。

　　然而，如果沒有強有力的政策措施來長期抑制天然氣需求，在報告預測期即將結束時，市場可能會出現波動和對供應安全的擔憂。

　　祝精燕 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

　　原文如下：

　　Gas demand to rebound with 3.6% growth in 2021: IEA

　　Natural gas demand is set to rebound strongly in 2021 with global demand expected to rise by 3.6% before easing to an average growth rate of 1.7% over the following three years, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

　　The demand will keep rising further if governments do not implement strong policies to move the world onto a path towards net-zero emissions by mid-century, added the IEA’s latest quarterly Gas Market Report, which also provides a new medium-term forecast. By 2024, demand is forecast to be up 7% from 2019’s pre-Covid levels.

　　Natural gas demand growth in 2021 mostly reflects economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, but it’s set to be driven in the following years in equal proportions by economic activity and by gas replacing other more polluting fuels such as coal and oil in sectors such as electricity generation, industry and transport. Almost half of the increase in gas demand between 2020 and 2024 comes from the Asia Pacific region.

　　Despite slower growth in the coming years, gas demand by 2024 is trending higher than the trajectories in the IEA’s climate-driven scenarios, notably the pathway set out in the recent

　　To get on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, new measures are needed to promote further fuel substitution and efficiency gains, the report said, noting that this is especially the case in more mature markets, where much of the potential for switching from coal or oil to gas has already been realized.

　　“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emissions-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security.

　　“But stronger policies need to be implemented to put global gas demand on a path in line with reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 while still fostering economic prosperity. These include measures to ensure gas is used more efficiently. At the same time, the gas industry needs to significantly step up efforts to shift to cleaner and low-carbon gases – and to act quickly and effectively to address needless methane emissions.”

　　The new report examines how the gas industry can reduce its emissions footprint and align with net-zero emissions objectives. Key areas for action include continuing to reduce the intensity of the industry’s greenhouse gas emissions all along the value chain, supporting the development of low-carbon gases, and developing carbon management solutions to minimise emissions from combustion. In particular, reducing methane emissions is an efficient way – in terms of both time and cost – of narrowing the industry’s footprint.

　　The increased demand forecast in the report can be met by conventional assets that were already approved or under development before the pandemic, mainly in Russia and the Middle East. Supply is also likely to be supplemented by new investment in US shale gas production to support export capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) that is currently under development.

　　The report notes the contribution of LNG to ensuring flexible and secure supplies, especially from the US, which accounts for the large majority of additional LNG capacity to be commissioned in the coming three years.

　　Robust growth of the LNG carrier fleet will also make supplies more adjustable, with current order books representing a 25% increase in the vessel count in the next two to three years. Underground storage capacity, another pivotal source of flexibility, is set to increase by 7% over the forecast period.

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