據油價網7月11日消息，美國天然氣價格自去年疫情引發的暴跌以來已經上漲了一倍多。2021年第二季度，天然氣價格飆升了40%，創下了自2016年第二季度以來的最大季度漲幅。
到目前為止，亨利樞紐(Henry Hub)的美國基準天然氣價格在每百萬英熱單位3.6美元以上。極端高溫、液化天然氣(LNG)出口上升以及天然氣庫存低于正常水平繼續支撐著第三季度初的價格。
展望未來，分析師預計價格波動將會加劇，因為天氣模型和預期的熱浪將是決定價格走勢的關鍵因素之一。不過，由于價格上漲使煤炭更具競爭力，今年美國發電行業的天然氣消費量預計將下降。由于煤炭的主要化石燃料競爭對手天然氣價格上漲，部分燃煤發電將在今年夏天出現短期復蘇，這將阻礙部分燃氣發電。
盡管如此，受美國LNG出口創紀錄、國內庫存水平較低以及去年冬天和今年夏天的極端天氣的影響，天然氣價格目前仍然處于2018年12月中旬以來的最高水平。
與此同時，由于石油導向鉆井平臺的伴生天然氣產量下降，美國的天然氣產量在最近幾個月相對持平。
未來兩個季度，天然氣價格預計將保持在3美元/百萬英熱單位以上。美國能源情報署(EIA)在本周公布的7月短期能源展望中稱，明年可能出現下行壓力，因預計美國天然氣產量將增加，且出口增長將放緩。
上周美國天然氣價格出現上漲，原因是天然氣市場供過于求，以及美國許多地區在比往常更熱的天氣下預計電力需求旺盛。隨著熱浪席卷太平洋西北部地區，亨利樞紐的價格回升導致期貨價格達到兩年多來的最高水平。
本周天氣轉涼的預期打壓了天然氣期貨，但美國能源情報署(EIA)的每周天然氣庫存報告具有建設性，并在周四推高了價格。
EIA稱，截至7月2日當周，凈注入儲油總量為160億立方英尺，低于分析師預測的270億立方英尺中值，也遠低于五年平均凈注入630億立方英尺。
去年這個星期，凈注入儲油量為570億立方英尺。截至7月2日，天然氣庫存總量為25740億立方英尺，比5年平均水平低1900億立方英尺，比去年同期低5510億立方英尺。
到目前為止，在4月至10月的補充季節，注入儲存的平均速度也比5年平均水平低17%。
EIA預計，由于創紀錄的天然氣出口增速將超過天然氣產量增速，整個補充季節的注入量將比5年平均水平低5%。
由于電力部門以外天然氣需求的上升和出口的增加，亨利樞紐在2021年上半年的平均現貨價格為3.25美元/百萬英熱單位，這也是由于2月份德克薩斯嚴寒期間價格短暫飆升至5.35美元/百萬英熱單位所致。
EIA在7月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中預測，亨利樞紐的現貨價格將從最近的高點回落。根據EIA的最新估計，第三季度的平均價格預計為3.22美元/百萬英熱單位，這也是2021年全年的平均價格。
然而，在2021年剩余時間里，天然氣價格預計將保持在3美元/百萬英熱單位以上，“受持續創紀錄的天然氣出口和電力行業以外的天然氣需求上升以及相對平穩的天然氣產量的推動。”
EIA預計，明年產量增加和出口增長放緩帶來的下行壓力將導致亨利樞紐2022年的平均現貨價格為3美元/百萬英熱單位。
裘寅 編譯自 油價網
原文如下：
Natural Gas Prices Still Have Room To Run
U.S. natural gas prices have more than doubled since last year’s pandemic-induced slump. Prices surged in the second quarter of 2021 by 40 percent, registering the largest quarterly rise since the second quarter of 2016.
The U.S. benchmark natural gas price at the Henry Hub has traded above $3.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) so far in July. Extreme heat, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and lower than usual gas stocks in storage continue to support prices at the start of the third quarter.
Going forward, analysts expect higher volatility in prices as weather models and anticipated heat waves will be one of the key factors in determining price actions. Natural gas consumption in U.S. electricity generation, however, is set to decline this year because of the much higher prices, which make coal more competitive. Coal-fired power generation is set for a short-term recovery this summer as higher prices of coal’s main fossil fuel competitor, natural gas, will discourage parts of gas-fired electricity generation.
Still, natural gas prices are currently at their highest since the middle of December 2018, driven by record U.S. LNG exports, low domestic stock levels, and extreme weather both in the past winter and this summer.
Amid all this, natural gas production in the United States has stayed relatively flat in recent months, due to lower production of associated gas from oil-directed rigs.
Natural gas prices are expected to stay above $3/MMBtu in the coming two quarters.
Downward pressure will likely emerge next year because of an expected rise in U.S. natural gas production and a slowdown in export growth, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July published this week.
Last week, U.S. natural gas prices jumped amid a tight natural gas market and expectations of high demand for electricity in hotter than usual weather in many parts of the United States. The Henry Hub rally as a heatwave gripped the Pacific Northwest resulted in the highest price for the prompt futures in more than two years.
Expectations of cooler weather this week have weighed on natural gas futures, but the weekly natural gas inventory report from EIA was constructive and sent prices higher on Thursday.
The net injections into storage totaled 16 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending July 2, below the median analyst estimate of 27 Bcf and well below the five-year average net injections of 63 Bcf, the EIA said.
This week last year net injections into storage stood at 57 Bcf. As of July 2, working natural gas stocks totaled 2,574 Bcf, which is 190 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 551 Bcf lower than last year at this time.
The average rate of injections into storage so far in the refill season April-October is also lower, by 17 percent, compared to the five-year average.
For the whole refill season, the EIA sees injections 5 percent below the five-year average rate because record exports are set to outpace increase in natural gas production.
Rising natural gas demand outside the power sector and higher exports resulted in an average Henry Hub spot price of $3.25/MMBtu in the first half of 2021, also because of the brief spike in prices to $5.35/MMBtu during the Texas Freeze in February.
The Henry Hub spot price is set to drop from recent highs, the EIA forecasts in its July STEO. The average price for the third quarter is expected at $3.22/MMBtu, which will also be the average price for all of 2021, as per EIA’s latest estimates.
However, prices are expected to stay above $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of 2021, “driven by continuing record natural gas exports and rising demand for natural gas outside of the electric power sector amid relatively flat natural gas production.”
Next year, downward pressure from higher production and slowing export growth would lead to average Henry Hub spot price of $3.00/MMBtu in 2022, the EIA reckons.
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