據(jù)7月20日Hart Energy報(bào)道，歐佩克+從8月開始提高原油產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議，一直是該組織此前陷入僵局的最有可能的結(jié)果，這應(yīng)該足以結(jié)束油價(jià)每桶100美元的市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，至少目前看來(lái)如此。

　　7月18日，歐佩克+成員國(guó)的部長(zhǎng)們同意從8月到12月將產(chǎn)量增加40萬(wàn)桶/天，到今年年底，全球供應(yīng)量將增加200萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　此外，包括歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)和俄羅斯等盟友在內(nèi)，該組織同意從2022年5月起進(jìn)行新的產(chǎn)量分配，解決了由阿聯(lián)酋引發(fā)的爭(zhēng)端，此前，阿聯(lián)酋希望提高其產(chǎn)量配額基準(zhǔn)。

　　阿聯(lián)酋的基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量將從5月份開始增加約33.2萬(wàn)桶/天，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯將分別增加50萬(wàn)桶/天，伊拉克和科威特將分別增加15萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　歐佩克+還計(jì)劃在2022年9月之前結(jié)束所有的產(chǎn)量限制，但這將取決于屆時(shí)全球石油市場(chǎng)的狀況。

　　隨著僵局的解決，越來(lái)越多的原油回歸全球供應(yīng)，市場(chǎng)面臨的問題變得簡(jiǎn)單，但仍難以回答。

　　供應(yīng)的增加是否會(huì)壓倒需求的復(fù)蘇，從而導(dǎo)致原油價(jià)格下跌?

　　樂觀的說(shuō)法仍然是，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在從疫情中復(fù)蘇，隨著人們接種疫苗，越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家重新開放。

　　悲觀的說(shuō)法是，這一過程可能正在發(fā)生，但發(fā)生的速度不夠快，而且擴(kuò)散不均勻，北美和歐洲復(fù)蘇更快，亞洲和非洲和南美的發(fā)展中國(guó)家則落后。

　　到目前為止，來(lái)自原油需求的證據(jù)似乎傾向于悲觀的說(shuō)法，尤其是在亞洲主要的石油進(jìn)口地區(qū)。

　　據(jù)Refinitiv Oil Research估計(jì)，亞洲7月份原油進(jìn)口量為2259萬(wàn)桶/天，低于6月份的2378萬(wàn)桶/天和5月份的2304萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　雖然隨著月底的臨近，這一估計(jì)數(shù)字可能會(huì)被調(diào)高，但初步證據(jù)表明，亞洲的原油需求遠(yuǎn)未上升。

　　7月份的疲軟主要是由于印度需求的下降。Refinitiv預(yù)測(cè)這個(gè)南亞國(guó)家的原油進(jìn)口量將從6月份的414萬(wàn)桶/天下降到333萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　油價(jià)下跌在很大程度上可歸因于印度最近幾個(gè)月新冠病毒的爆發(fā)，這降低了燃料需求，因?yàn)闉榱俗柚辜膊〉膫鞑ィ糠纸?jīng)濟(jì)部門被封鎖了。

　　在亞洲前四大石油進(jìn)口國(guó)中，預(yù)計(jì)7月份進(jìn)口原油量將超過6月份，只有韓國(guó)可能超過日本，成為該地區(qū)第三大石油進(jìn)口國(guó)，即便如此，漲幅也相對(duì)較小，7月份為317萬(wàn)桶/天，而上月為276萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　價(jià)格脫節(jié)

　　在亞洲，全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特(Brent)等原油期貨價(jià)格與中東主要出口地區(qū)售出的實(shí)物原油價(jià)格之間也存在某種脫節(jié)。

　　布倫特-迪拜掉期交易就是這樣一個(gè)衡量指標(biāo)，它衡量布倫特原油期貨和迪拜實(shí)物原油之間的價(jià)差。

　　7月16日，布倫特原油期貨相對(duì)于迪拜掉期的溢價(jià)收于相對(duì)較寬的3.79美元/桶，距離7月7日創(chuàng)下的4.38美元/桶的近期高點(diǎn)不遠(yuǎn)，這是2018年4月以來(lái)的最高水平。

　　實(shí)際上，這意味著布倫特原油以及安哥拉和尼日利亞等以布倫特原油定價(jià)的實(shí)物原油，與中東原油相比，溢價(jià)處于歷史高位。

　　隨著歐佩克+協(xié)議的達(dá)成，期貨市場(chǎng)的投資者很可能將被迫面對(duì)這樣一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)，即全球大部分現(xiàn)貨原油需求依然疲軟，且遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前的水平。

　　7月19日，布倫特原油期貨在亞洲早盤交易中有所下跌，最低跌至72.60美元/桶，較7月16日收盤下跌1.3%。

　　歐佩克+協(xié)議不一定會(huì)終結(jié)對(duì)石油需求的樂觀看法，但它確實(shí)改變了供應(yīng)因素，也意味著一些投資銀行和市場(chǎng)參與者對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月油價(jià)達(dá)到100美元的預(yù)測(cè)不太可能成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Hart Energy

　　原文如下：

　　Opinion: OPEC+ Deal Should End $100 Oil Predictions

　　The OPEC+ deal to boost crude oil output from August was always the most likely outcome to the producer group’s earlier impasse, and it should be enough to end market talk of $100 oil, at least for now.

　　OPEC+ ministers agreed on July 18 to boost production by 400,000 bbl/d from August to December, adding a total of 2 million bbl/d to global supply by the end of the year.

　　Additionally the group, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, agreed to new production allocations from May 2022, resolving the dispute sparked by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had wanted the baseline for its output quota raised.

　　The UAE will see its baseline gain by about 332,000 bbl/d from May, while Saudi Arabia and Russia will enjoy increases of 500,000 bbl/d each, with Iraq and Kuwait getting jumps of 150,000 bbl/d each.

　　OPEC+ also plans to end all output restrictions by September 2022, but this will depend on the state of the global oil market around that time.

　　With the impasse resolved, and more crude returning to global supply, the question for the market is now simple, but difficult to answer.

　　Will the increase in supply overwhelm the recovery in demand, leading to a lower crude price?

　　The bullish narrative remains that the world economy is recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, with more countries opening back up as populations receive vaccines against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

　　The bearish narrative is that this process may be happening, but it isn't happening fast enough and is unevenly spread, with North America and Europe recovering faster and Asia and the developing nations of Africa and South America lagging.

　　So far the evidence from crude oil demand appears to favor the bearish narrative, especially in the top oil-importing region of Asia.

　　Asia’s crude imports for July are estimated at 22.59 million bbl/d by Refinitiv Oil Research, which is down from 23.78 million bbl/d in June and 23.04 million bbl/d in May.

　　While this estimate may be revised higher as the end of the month approaches, it is early evidence that crude oil demand is far from an upward trajectory in Asia.

　　July’s weakness is largely down to falling demand in India, with Refinitiv forecasting the South Asian nation will bring in 3.33 million bbl/d, down from June’s 4.14 million bbl/d.

　　The drop can largely be ascribed to India's renewed coronavirus outbreak in recent months, which cut fuel demand as parts of the economy were locked down in a bid to halt the spread of the disease.

　　Among the top four importers in Asia, only South Korea, which is likely to overtake Japan as the number three oil buyer in the region, is predicted to bring in more crude in July than in June, and even then the gain is relatively small, 3.17 million in July compared with 2.76 million for the prior month.

　　Price Discord

　　There is also something of a disconnect in Asia between prices for paper crude futures, such as global benchmark Brent and physical cargoes sold out of the main exporting region of the Middle East.

　　One such measure is the Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps, which measures the gap between Brent futures and physical crude in Dubai.

　　The premium of Brent futures over Dubai swaps ended at a relatively wide $3.79/bbl on July 16, not far off the recent peak of $4.38 on July 7, which was the highest since April 2018.

　　In effect this means that paper Brent, and the physical crudes priced off it such as those from Angola and Nigeria, are trading at a historically high premium to cargoes from the Middle East.

　　With the OPEC+ deal now in place, it's likely that investors in the paper market will be forced to confront the reality that for much of the world physical crude demand remains soft, and well below pre-pandemic levels.

　　Brent futures lost some ground in early Asian trade on July 19, dropping as low as $72.60/bbl, down 1.3% from the close on July 16.

　　The OPEC+ agreement doesn’t necessarily end the bullish case for oil demand, but it does alter the supply part of the equation, and it means predictions of $100 oil in coming months, made by some investment banks and market participants, are less likely to materialize.

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