據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年8月13日報道，高盛投資銀行表示，由于激增的席卷全球的德爾塔變異毒株病例將抑制全球短期石油需求，但歐佩克+不太可能對美國的增產(chǎn)要求做出回應(yīng)。
日前，白宮呼吁歐佩克+集團(tuán)增加他們已計劃的石油產(chǎn)量，以遏制可能破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的汽油價格大幅上漲。
美國國家安全顧問沙利文在一份聲明中表示：“我們正在與歐佩克+相關(guān)成員國就競爭性市場在定價中的重要性進(jìn)行接觸。”
高盛投資銀行說，如果不加以控制，汽油價格大幅上漲可能會損害正在進(jìn)行的全球復(fù)蘇。
在評論歐佩克+增加供應(yīng)的可能性時，高盛投資銀行分析師在路透社8月12日發(fā)表的一份報告中表示：“我們不認(rèn)為白宮最近的聲明會威脅到當(dāng)前的市場赤字，也不認(rèn)為會影響今年下半年的再平衡速度。”
因此，這家美國著名投資銀行將今年年底對布倫特原油價格的預(yù)測維持在每桶80美元。8月5日早些時候，布倫特原油價格約為每桶71美元。
盡管高盛投資銀行預(yù)計，德爾塔變異病毒在未來兩個月的激增將暫時拖累石油需求，但高盛投資銀行仍繼續(xù)看好油價。
高盛投資銀行在周四的報告中表示：“盡管德爾塔變異病毒在全球肆虐，我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計需求復(fù)蘇將繼續(xù)，同時疫苗接種率將不斷上升。”
荷蘭國際集團(tuán)(ING)分析師沃倫? 帕特森和姚文宇周四表示：“我們可以想象，沙特阿拉伯和更廣泛的歐佩克+集團(tuán)將非常不愿意進(jìn)一步增產(chǎn)，特別是考慮到德爾塔變異毒株擴(kuò)散的持續(xù)不確定性。”
兩位分析師補(bǔ)充稱：“我們需要看到，美國愿意向沙特阿拉伯施加多大壓力，才能看到他們進(jìn)一步打開水龍頭。”
李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Goldman: OPEC+ Unlikely To Open The Taps Despite U.S. Calls
OPEC+ is unlikely to respond with increased production to the U.S. calls amid the surging Delta variant, which is set to dampen short-term oil demand, Goldman Sachs says.
Earlier this week, the White House called on the OPEC+ group to increase oil production more than they had planned in order to tame rising gasoline prices that could derail the global economic recovery.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement that “We are engaging with relevant OPEC+ members on the importance of competitive markets in setting prices.”
Higher gasoline costs, if left unchecked, risk harming the ongoing global recovery,” the statement further reads.
Commenting on the possibility that OPEC+ lift supply, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Thursday note carried by Reuters: “We don’t see the recent White House statement as threatening the current market deficit nor the pace of the rebalancing in 2H21.”
As a result, the investment bank kept its forecast for Brent Crude prices at $80 a barrel at the end of this year. Brent was trading at around $71 early on Friday.
Goldman continues to be bullish on oil, although it expects the Delta variant surge to have a transitory drag on oil demand over the next two months.
“Looking beyond the Delta headwind, we expect the demand recovery to continue alongside rising vaccination rates,” Goldman Sachs said in the Thursday note.
“[W]e imagine that there will be quite a lot of reluctance from the Saudis and the broader group to increase output further, particularly given continued uncertainty over the spread of the delta variant,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Thursday.
“We will need to see how much pressure the US is willing to put on Saudi Arabia in order to see them further opening the taps,” they added.
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