據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)8月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)美國(guó)能源安全分析公司ESAI 能源稱，液化天然氣(NGL)的“需求增長(zhǎng)峰值”時(shí)代將在2025 年結(jié)束。
根據(jù)ESAI能源最新發(fā)布的《全球NGL 5年展望》顯示，2021-2025年期間，亞洲液化石油氣(LPG)進(jìn)口需求每年將增長(zhǎng)不到10萬(wàn)桶/天，全球市場(chǎng)將回到過(guò)剩狀態(tài)。
據(jù)ESAI預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)和印度的發(fā)展將減緩亞洲兩大液化石油氣市場(chǎng)的進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)。
另外，ESAI能源認(rèn)為，由于美國(guó)對(duì)新乙烷裂解裝置的投資相對(duì)不足，2023年后對(duì)美國(guó)乙烷的需求將減速。雖然2021年海外裂解裝置的交付量出現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的增長(zhǎng)，但出口增長(zhǎng)將放緩。因此，全球?qū)γ绹?guó)乙烷的需求增長(zhǎng)將放緩。
ESAI能源負(fù)責(zé)人Andrew Reed表示，對(duì)液化石油氣和乙烷的需求增長(zhǎng)都將放緩。鑒于該NGL基本面通常是由供應(yīng)決定的，令人驚訝的是，我們并不認(rèn)為供應(yīng)危機(jī)會(huì)導(dǎo)致乙烷或液化石油氣的價(jià)格超出石化原料的價(jià)格。相反，在一年左右的時(shí)間，我們預(yù)計(jì)液化石油氣市場(chǎng)將重新出現(xiàn)過(guò)剩。
郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)
原文如下:
ESAI: Era of Peak Demand Growth for NGLs' Nears End
NGLs’ era of “peak demand growth” will come to an end by 2025 according to ESAI Energy.
Between 2021 and 2025, Asia’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) import requirement will grow less than 100,000 b/d annually and the global market will flip back to surplus, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL 5-Year Outlook.
Developments in both China and India will slow the growth of imports to Asia’s two biggest LPG markets, ESAI projects.
Separately, ESAI Energy submits that demand for US ethane will decelerate after 2023 due to a relative lack of investment in new ethane crackers in the US. While 2021 is seeing a record increase in deliveries to overseas crackers, export growth will moderate. Consequently, global demand for US ethane will grow at a slowing pace.
“Demand growth for both LPG and ethane will slow,” explains ESAI Energy Principal Andrew Reed. “Given that the NGL fundamentals are usually shaped by supply, it is striking that we do not foresee a supply crunch that would price ethane or LPG out of the petchem feed slate. To the contrary, in a year or so we anticipate the LPG market flipping back to surplus.
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