據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年7月29日報道，對新冠肺炎疫情在世界部分地區(qū)卷土重來以及基金拋售石油期貨引發(fā)的石油需求擔(dān)憂，逆轉(zhuǎn)了最近的油價上漲勢頭。 歐佩克+達成一項關(guān)于未來產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議對此提供了幫助。

　　美國所有50個州的新冠肺炎感染病例數(shù)都在上升，一些歐洲國家的新病例也出現(xiàn)了躍升，尤其是英國和法國。 根據(jù)最新的報告，在英國，最新的一波爆發(fā)潮正在消退，但樂觀情緒缺乏，因為目前還不清楚這股高潮消退的原因。

　　與此同時，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國就產(chǎn)量基準(zhǔn)達成了協(xié)議，因此OPEC+正在推進向市場釋放更多原油的計劃，這給原油價格帶來了壓力。

　　上周，路透社的約翰?坎普在其每周專欄中報道，對沖基金和其他造市商以10年來最快的速度出售石油和燃料期貨。 總銷售量相當(dāng)于1.72億桶原油。 售出最多的合同是西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油，售出7400萬桶，其次是布倫特原油，售出5100萬桶。

　　路透社本周援引Stone X分析師凱文·所羅門的話報道說：“在歐佩克+主導(dǎo)的供應(yīng)短缺和疫苗接種率低地區(qū)新冠病毒變種德爾塔的威脅之間，能源領(lǐng)域似乎存在一場斗爭。”

　　所羅門還表示：“疫苗接種的緩慢普及將繼續(xù)限制這些地區(qū)石油需求的一些上行空間，未來幾個月需求將出現(xiàn)間歇性的復(fù)蘇。”

　　確實，石油尚未走出困境。 法國興業(yè)銀行表示：“我們認為，就之前記錄的價值而言，今年年底我們可能會回到‘正常’的一年，但整個石油市場仍遠未恢復(fù)正常。 GDP增長增加了石油和產(chǎn)品需求，但航空燃油需求仍將是一個問題，盡管這一需求正顯示出正常化的跡象。”

　　然而，值得注意的是，在布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格暴跌后的第二天歐佩克+宣布了新的協(xié)議，盡管Covid-19病例數(shù)上升，但主要市場如美國和歐洲的部分地區(qū)需求恢復(fù)很快，這表明存在至少一些感知的需求彈性。

　　例如，在美國，航空旅行激增，加上供應(yīng)限制和勞動力短缺，這導(dǎo)致了航空燃料短缺。

　　總而言之，目前的石油形勢比一個月前更加復(fù)雜。 在疫苗接種不均衡、反對接種疫苗和新冠病毒感染的情況下，人們猜測是否會變得更加復(fù)雜。目前，國際石油市場的價格必須考慮到這些因素。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Market Still Far From Being Back To ‘Normal’

　　Worry about oil demand sparked by the resurgence of Covid-19 in some parts of the world and a fund selloff in oil futures has reversed the recent price rally. OPEC+ reaching a deal about future production lent an assist.

　　New Covid-19 infections are on the rise across all 50 states, and there have been jumps in new cases in some European countries as well, notably the UK and France. In the UK, the latest wave is ebbing, according to the latest reports, but optimism is in short supply as it is still unclear why it is ebbing.

　　Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates struck a deal about production baselines, so OPEC+ is moving ahead with its plans to release more oil to the market, pressuring prices.

　　Last week, Reuters’ John Kemp reported in his weekly column, hedge funds and other market makers sold oil and fuel futures at one of the fastest rates in ten years. The total sold was equivalent to 172 million barrels of crude. The most sold contract was West Texas Intermediate, at 74 million barrels, followed by Brent crude, at 51 million barrels.

　　But besides OPEC+ and new Covid-19 infections, there is also another reason worrying oil traders about the immediate prospects for prices.

　　Earlier this year, the government told state-owned oil majors to stop trading their crude oil import quotas with independents, commonly called teapots, and then, later, it cut the second 2021 batch of crude oil import quotas for teapots by 35 percent.

　　“There is seemingly a battle within the energy complex between the prevailing supply deficit engineered by OPEC+ and the threat of the COVID-19 Delta variant in regions with low vaccination rates,” Reuters quoted Stone X analyst Kevin Solomon as saying this week.

　　“The slow take-up of vaccinations will continue to limit some upside in oil demand in those regions, and there will be intermittent spells in the recovery in the coming months,” Solomon also said.

　　Indeed, oil has yet to come out of the woods. According to Societe Generale, “We think we could be back to a ‘normal’ year at the end of the year in terms of previously recorded values, but the entire oil market is still far from being back to normal. GDP growth has increased oil and product demand, but jet fuel demand will remain an issue although this is showing signs of normalisation.”

　　And yet it bears noting that although both Brent and WTI took a plunge the day after OPEC+ announced its new agreement, both recovered pretty quickly, suggesting that there exists at least some perception of some resilience in demand, despite the rising Covid-19 case count in key markets such as the United States and parts of Europe.

　　In the United States, for example, there has been a surge in air travel, which has caused a jet fuel shortage in combination with supply constraints and a labor shortage.

　　All in all, the oil picture right now is more mixed than it was a month ago. Whether it would become even more mixed is anyone’s guess amid uneven vaccinations, vaccine opposition, and new Covid-19 infections, without even counting factors, which by now must be factored into prices.

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