據(jù)OILNOW網(wǎng)站12月12日消息 總部位于挪威的雷斯塔能源最近進(jìn)行了“加速向更清潔燃料來源過渡如何影響石油和天然氣供應(yīng)商”的研究。這家能源研究和商業(yè)智能公司利用自己的數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動的能源供應(yīng)預(yù)測得出結(jié)論，與工業(yè)化前水平相比，全球氣溫上升1.6°C仍然可能是一個(gè)趨勢，盡管目前世界正朝著更大幅度的上升。

雷斯塔能源表示：“深入研究可能開發(fā)的油田類型（無論是石油還是天然氣，還是涉及海底、浮式或固定式海上設(shè)施，常規(guī)項(xiàng)目還是非常規(guī)項(xiàng)目）有助于分析不同服務(wù)領(lǐng)域在不同情況下的發(fā)展情況。對于油田服務(wù)業(yè)的五大服務(wù)行業(yè)中的每一個(gè)，我們都可以計(jì)算未來三十年可能的復(fù)合年增長率，以確定哪些行業(yè)可能證明最具彈性。”

2020-2030年間，海底產(chǎn)品線可能表現(xiàn)最好，甚至可能在1.6攝氏度的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)增長。

雷斯塔能源表示：“隨著巴西和圭亞那在深水領(lǐng)域取得重大成功，海底設(shè)備和SURF的需求將大幅增長，因?yàn)檫@些不斷增長的石油經(jīng)濟(jì)體在當(dāng)前十年中嚴(yán)重依賴其化石燃料資源。”

維護(hù)、改造和運(yùn)營（MMO）以及工程、采購、施工和安裝（EPCI）行業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)在本十年內(nèi)，隨著勘探和生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營商在未來五年優(yōu)先考慮綠地項(xiàng)目，所有三種氣候情景（1.6℃、1.8℃和2.0℃）都將出現(xiàn)增長。

圭亞那有一系列重大項(xiàng)目正在進(jìn)行中，埃克森美孚運(yùn)營的Stabroek區(qū)塊正在建設(shè)中。Liza 1于2019年末開始產(chǎn)油，第二階段計(jì)劃于明年初投產(chǎn)。Payara的第三個(gè)項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)獲得批準(zhǔn)，Yellowtail的第四個(gè)項(xiàng)目正在等待地方當(dāng)局的批準(zhǔn)。總的來說，到十年中期，這些項(xiàng)目每天將交付80多萬桶石油。

吳恒磊 編譯自 OILNOW

原文如下：

Major Guyana projects pushing oilfield service growth – Rystad Energy

Norway-based Rystad Energy recently examined how an accelerated transition to cleaner fuel sources could impact oil and gas suppliers. Using its own data-driven forecasts for energy supply, the energy research and business intelligence company concluded that a rise of 1.6°C versus pre-industrial levels can still be a likely trajectory for global temperatures, although at present the world is heading towards a larger increase.

“Looking deeper into what type of fields are likely to be developed – whether they be oil or gas, involve subsea, floating or grounded offshore facilities, be they conventional or unconventional projects – makes it possible to analyse how various service segments will develop in different scenarios,” Rystad Energy said. “For each of the major five service segments in oilfield services, we can compute the likely compound annual growth rates in the next three decades to see which segments are likely to prove the most resilient.”

Between 2020 and 2030, the subsea product lines are the one that are likely to fare best, potentially even posting growth in a 1.6-degree scenario.

“With the major deepwater successes in Brazil and Guyana, subsea equipment and SURF will see major demand growth as these growing oil economies are heavily dependent on their fossil fuel resources in the current decade,” Rystad Energy said.

The maintenance, modifications and operations (MMO) and engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sectors are where it expects growth to occur in all three climate scenarios – 1.6°C, 1.8°C and 2.0°C – in this decade as greenfield projects being prioritized by exploration and production operators in the next five years.

Guyana has a string of major projects underway and in the pipeline at the giant ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block. Liza 1 began producing oil in late 2019 and Phase 2 is set to come on stream early next year. A third project at Payara is already approved and a fourth at Yellowtail is waiting the greenlight from local authorities. All told, these projects will deliver over 800,000 barrels of oil per day by mid-decade.

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