據(jù)EIA網(wǎng)站12月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）12 月短期能源展望(STEO)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)干天然氣產(chǎn)量將從 2021 年 10 月的每天 951 億立方英尺增加到 2022 年 12 月的 975億立方英尺，創(chuàng)歷史新高。之前的月度記錄 972億立方英尺是在 2019 年 11 月創(chuàng)下的。

2020 年初，與 疫情相關(guān)的需求下降導(dǎo)致天然氣價(jià)格相應(yīng)下降并減少了鉆探。因此，2020 年 5 月，每月天然氣產(chǎn)量下降至 873億立方英尺低點(diǎn)。自那以后，美國(guó)干天然氣產(chǎn)量普遍上升。2021年2月，由于天氣原因得克薩斯天然氣產(chǎn)量大幅下降，這是一個(gè)短暫例外。

美國(guó)能源信息署對(duì)美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)包括以天然氣為導(dǎo)向的鉆井活動(dòng)的預(yù)期產(chǎn)量及與原油生產(chǎn)（伴生氣）相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量。根據(jù)EIA在《鉆井產(chǎn)能報(bào)告》中編制的指標(biāo)，在 海恩斯維爾地區(qū)（主要在得克薩斯州和路易斯安那州）和阿巴拉契亞盆地（主要在賓夕法尼亞州和西弗吉尼亞州），鉆井活動(dòng)及單井產(chǎn)量的增加導(dǎo)致近幾個(gè)月天然氣產(chǎn)量增加。隨著生產(chǎn)商完成了先前已鉆探但尚未完成的井（DUC 井），相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量也有所增加。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司的數(shù)據(jù)，2019 年和 2020 年上半年，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆井平臺(tái)（主要在含天然氣地層中鉆探的鉆井平臺(tái)）數(shù)量有所減少。到 2020 年 8 月下旬，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已降至 68個(gè)，這是貝克休斯自 1987 年數(shù)據(jù)系列中最少的。此后，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已增加至 2021 年 11 月中旬的 102 個(gè)，但鉆井效率（每臺(tái)鉆機(jī)可以鉆的新井?dāng)?shù)量）和新井產(chǎn)量的提高使鉆機(jī)數(shù)量與最終產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系變得復(fù)雜。

賈麗 編譯自 EIA

原文如下：

EIA forecasts U.S. natural gas production will establish a new monthly record high in 2022

In our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, a new record high. The previous monthly record of 97.2 Bcf/d was set in November 2019.

In early 2020, COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in a corresponding natural gas price decrease and reduced drilling. As a result, monthly natural gas production declined to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production in the United States has generally risen since then, with a brief exception in February 2021, when winter weather substantially reduced natural gas production in Texas.

Our forecast for U.S. natural gas production growth includes expected output from natural gas-directed drilling activity as well as natural gas production associated with crude oil production (associated gas). In both the Haynesville region (mainly in Texas and Louisiana) and the Appalachia Basin (mainly in Pennsylvania and West Virginia), increased drilling activity and greater output per well have led to more natural gas production in recent months, according to metrics compiled in our Drilling Productivity Report. Associated natural gas production has also increased as producers have completed wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC wells).

The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilled primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020, based on data from the Baker Hughes Company. By late August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count had fallen to 68 rigs, the fewest in Baker Hughes’s data series, which dates back to 1987. The number of natural gas-directed rigs has since increased to 102 in mid-November 2021. Rig counts are considered a leading indicator of newly drilled wells, but increases in drilling efficiency (the number of new wells each rig can drill) and new-well production have complicated the relationship between rig counts and eventual production.

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