?預(yù)測(cè)油價(jià)一直很困難，但歐洲的能源危機(jī)、歐佩克+控制產(chǎn)量、正在進(jìn)行的能源轉(zhuǎn)型、疫情明年還在繼續(xù)，這些都讓人很難預(yù)測(cè)油價(jià)

?全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型面臨很多問(wèn)題，尤其是成本上升，這將是2022年關(guān)注的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素

?繼2021年石油和天然氣需求的反彈之后，隨著奧密克戎病例的激增和投資者繼續(xù)敦促企業(yè)進(jìn)行脫碳，市場(chǎng)將在 2022年面臨價(jià)格、需求和行業(yè)長(zhǎng)期前景的新不確定性

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月21日消息，隨著新冠疫情和通脹擔(dān)憂威脅需求，不確定性在年底重新回到石油市場(chǎng)。

石油和天然氣需求明年是否會(huì)繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，清潔能源裝置是否會(huì)繼續(xù)激增?或者，潛伏一段時(shí)間的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)阻礙綠色能源的推出，并顛覆全球石油和天然氣需求的反彈?

離2021年底越近，2022年的前景就越不確定，奧密克戎讓已經(jīng)開(kāi)始收緊限制或像荷蘭那樣重新實(shí)施嚴(yán)格封鎖的歐洲各國(guó)政府感到不安。英國(guó)不排除采取更嚴(yán)格的措施，許多其他歐洲國(guó)家也在收緊旅行限制。

100美元的油價(jià)？

奧密克戎對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和燃料需求的影響，以及對(duì)石油需求復(fù)蘇和價(jià)格的影響將是2022年全年的一個(gè)主要主題，特別是在前幾個(gè)月。

盡管在“正常”情況下預(yù)測(cè)油價(jià)很困難，但疫情帶來(lái)的不確定性使預(yù)測(cè)任務(wù)更加困難。目前，市場(chǎng)對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)期從明年平均每桶70美元左右，到2022年或2023年某個(gè)時(shí)候達(dá)到每桶100美元以上的高點(diǎn)不等。

歐佩克認(rèn)為奧密克戎對(duì)石油需求的影響是“溫和而短暫的”，而國(guó)際能源署(IEA)則預(yù)計(jì)，由于該新變異毒株的出現(xiàn)，需求復(fù)蘇將暫時(shí)放緩，但不會(huì)完全顛覆需求趨勢(shì)。

在奧密克戎變異毒株擴(kuò)散初期，摩根大通曾表示，由于歐佩克增產(chǎn)能力有限，明年油價(jià)可能飆升至每桶125美元，2023年達(dá)到每桶150美元。

由于奧密克戎的不確定性，歐佩克可能會(huì)立即調(diào)整其石油生產(chǎn)政策，因此，歐佩克的行動(dòng)將與疫情的發(fā)展一起，成為明年油價(jià)的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

伍德麥肯茲公司(Wood Mackenzie)董事長(zhǎng)兼首席分析師西蒙?弗勞爾斯(Simon Flowers)最近在一篇文章中討論了2022年油氣行業(yè)的主要主題，他在文章中寫(xiě)道，油價(jià)不太可能升至每桶100美元，至少在明年的任何一段持續(xù)時(shí)間內(nèi)都不太可能。

一些分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，北半球?qū)⒂瓉?lái)比往年更冷的嚴(yán)冬，這將加劇歐洲的能源危機(jī)，并耗盡該國(guó)的天然氣儲(chǔ)備。就今年這個(gè)時(shí)候而言，這些的天然氣儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)處于10年來(lái)的最低水平。這可能會(huì)推動(dòng)使用天然氣以外的燃料(包括石油產(chǎn)品)供暖的需求，即使封鎖限制了汽油消費(fèi)，也可能會(huì)推高石油需求。

能源危機(jī)何時(shí)結(jié)束?

“一個(gè)糟糕的冬天會(huì)把已經(jīng)接近歷史最高水平的天然氣和電力價(jià)格推得更高，”弗勞爾斯說(shuō)。

本周末的一股寒流已經(jīng)將歐洲的電價(jià)推至新高，原因是法國(guó)關(guān)閉四座核反應(yīng)堆后，天然氣儲(chǔ)存量和電力供應(yīng)都很低。

天然氣價(jià)格非常不穩(wěn)定，對(duì)俄羅斯額外供應(yīng)的缺乏非常敏感，但隨著春天天氣變暖，天然氣價(jià)格勢(shì)必會(huì)下降。

然而，伍德麥肯茲的分析師表示，即使在2022年春季冬季結(jié)束時(shí)，亞洲和歐洲的天然氣價(jià)格仍將高于危機(jī)前的水平，天然氣市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)性比疫情之前更為緊張。

他們指出:“我們預(yù)計(jì)，在2021年至2025年期間，歐洲和亞洲的液化天然氣價(jià)格將穩(wěn)定在當(dāng)前平均價(jià)格的兩倍以上，直到2026年新的供應(yīng)開(kāi)始供應(yīng)。”

明年及以后的天然氣市場(chǎng)前景面臨的一個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，天然氣是否仍會(huì)被視為一種可靠的、比煤炭更清潔的燃料，以幫助煤轉(zhuǎn)氣轉(zhuǎn)換和支持可再生能源，或者只是作為另一種化石燃料， 不應(yīng)再被視為清潔能源的“橋梁燃料”。

成本上升會(huì)阻礙能源轉(zhuǎn)型嗎?

伍德麥肯茲認(rèn)為，雖然大型石油公司將更多投資轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源，但由于成本較高，已經(jīng)成熟的太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能技術(shù)的產(chǎn)能增加速度可能會(huì)放緩，伍德麥肯茲認(rèn)為清潔能源裝置中存在金屬潛在超級(jí)周期和持續(xù)激增的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

IEA 執(zhí)行董事法提赫比羅爾本月早些時(shí)候表示，盡管大宗商品和運(yùn)輸價(jià)格居高不下，但可再生能源有望在 2021 年實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的增長(zhǎng)。

國(guó)際能源署在其《2021年可再生能源市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》中預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，全球仍需要在未來(lái)五年內(nèi)增加兩倍的年生產(chǎn)能力，才能在2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放。

伍德麥肯茲認(rèn)為，不斷上升的投入成本和工資、供應(yīng)鏈挑戰(zhàn)和物流可能“阻礙大量低碳技術(shù)的推出和發(fā)展”。

伍德麥肯茲本月早些時(shí)候表示，在未來(lái)的幾個(gè)月和幾年里，蓬勃發(fā)展的美國(guó)太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)將在巨大的機(jī)遇和重大的絆腳石之間搖擺不定，未來(lái)幾年很可能會(huì)經(jīng)歷一次瘋狂的“太陽(yáng)能過(guò)山車(chē)”。

美國(guó)太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)第三季度安裝了5.4吉瓦的太陽(yáng)能裝機(jī)容量，比2020年同期增長(zhǎng)33%，是有記錄以來(lái)最大的第三季度。然而，成本繼續(xù)上升。

所有細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的安裝成本連續(xù)第二個(gè)季度上升，反映了供應(yīng)鏈的挑戰(zhàn)。除住宅外，所有細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的同比價(jià)格漲幅都達(dá)到了2014年以來(lái)的最高水平，當(dāng)時(shí)伍德麥肯茲開(kāi)始追蹤價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)。

不確定性似乎將成為2022年油氣市場(chǎng)的最大主題。

裘寅 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Uncertainty To Dominate Oil Markets In 2022

?Uncertainty has returned to oil markets at the end of the year as a new variant of Covid combines with inflation fears to threaten demand 

?Predicting the price of oil is always difficult, but with an energy crisis in Europe, OPEC+ controlling production, the energy transition underway, and Covid continuing next year is particularly difficult to read

?The global energy transition is facing plenty of problems, not least of which is rising costs, and will be a key factor to watch in 2022

Following the rebound in oil and gas demand in 2021, the market is headed to 2022 with renewed uncertainties about prices, demand, and the industry’s longer-term prospects as Omicron COVID cases spike and investors continue to press companies toward decarbonization.  Will oil and gas demand continue to recover and clean energy installations continue to surge next year? Or will risks lurking for some time materialize to hamper green energy rollouts and upend the rebound in global oil and gas demand?  

The closer we get to the end of 2021, the more uncertain the 2022 outlook becomes, with Omicron spooking governments in Europe that have already started to tighten restrictions or re-impose strict lockdowns in the case of the Netherlands. The UK is not ruling out stricter measures, and many other European countries are tightening travel restrictions. 

$100 Oil?

The Omicron impact on economies and fuel demand and the effect on oil demand recovery and prices will be a major theme throughout 2022, especially during the first few months of the year. 

As difficult as it is to predict oil prices in “normal” circumstances, the uncertainties with the pandemic have made the task of forecasting even more difficult. Currently, outlooks range from oil averaging around $70 next year to hitting as high as above $100 per barrel at some point in 2022 or 2023.  

OPEC sees a “mild and short-lived” Omicron impact on oil demand, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a temporary slowdown in demand recovery due to the new variant, but not an entirely upended demand trend. 

In the early days of the Omicron variant spreading, JP Morgan said that oil could soar to $125 per barrel next year and $150 in 2023 due to OPEC’s limited capacity to boost production. 

OPEC left the door open to potential immediate adjustments in its oil production policy with the Omicron uncertainty, so the cartel’s actions would be an important driver of oil prices next year, along with the COVID developments. 

Oil prices rising to $100 a barrel is unlikely, at least for any sustained period next year, Simon Flowers, Chairman, and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in a recent post discussing the key themes in oil and gas in 2022. 

Some analysts expect a harsh colder-than-usual winter in the northern hemisphere to exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe and deplete its stockpiles of natural gas in storage which are already at a decade low for this time of the year. This could prop up demand for heating with fuels other than natural gas, including oil products, potentially driving up oil demand even if lockdowns limit gasoline consumption.  

When Will The Energy Crisis End? 

“A bad winter will push gas and power prices—already near record levels—higher still,” says WoodMac’s Flowers. 

A cold snap this weekend already sent Europe’s power prices surging to new records, as gas storage levels are low and electricity availability is low too after France shut down four nuclear reactors. 

Natural gas prices are highly volatile and sensitive to (the lack of) extra supply from Russia, but they are set to fall in the spring with warmer weather.  

However, even at the end of the winter season in the spring of 2022, gas prices in Asia and Europe will remain higher than pre-crisis levels, with a structurally tighter gas market than before COVID, WoodMac’s analysts say. 

“We expect LNG prices in Europe and Asia to settle at more than double the average for prevailing prices between 2015 and 2020 until new supply comes onstream in 2026,” they noted. 

A major risk to the gas market outlook next year and beyond would be whether gas will still be perceived as a reliable, cleaner-than-coal fuel to help a coal-to-gas switch and backup for renewables or as just another fossil fuel that shouldn’t be considered the “bridge fuel” to clean energy sources anymore. 

Will Rising Costs Hold Back The Energy Transition? 

While Big Oil directs more investments to low-carbon energy, the pace of the capacity additions of the already mature solar and wind technology could slow because of higher costs, according to one risk Wood Mackenzie sees for a potential supercycle in metals and a continued surge in clean energy installations. 

Despite the high commodity and transport prices, renewables are on track for record growth in 2021, the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said earlier this month, noting however that “if commodity prices stay high until the end of 2022, it would wipe out 5 years of cost reductions for wind power – and 3 years of reductions for solar PV.”  

The world will still need double new annual capacity over the next five years to achieve the net-zero by 2050 scenario, the IEA said in its annual Renewables 2021 Market Report with a forecast to 2026. 

According to WoodMac, rising input costs and wages, supply chain challenges, and logistics could “hamper the roll-out and development of a raft of low-carbon technologies.” 

The booming U.S. solar industry is set to be torn between huge opportunities and major stumbling blocks in the coming months and years, and it will likely see a wild “solar coaster” ride in the next few years, Wood Mackenzie earlier this month. 

The U.S. solar market installed 5.4 GWdc of solar capacity in the third quarter, up by 33 percent from the same period of 2020 and the largest Q3 on record. However, costs continued to rise.

“Installed costs increased across all market segments for the second quarter in a row, reflecting supply chain challenges. In every segment besides residential, year-over-year price increases were the highest they’ve been since 2014 when Wood Mackenzie began tracking pricing data,” last week’s Solar Market Insight Report 2021 Q4 by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie showed.

It looks like uncertainty will be the single biggest theme in oil and gas markets in 2022.

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