據OILNOW網站1月9日消息 總部位于英國的咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，今年油價不會持續超過每桶100美元。

The Edge首席分析師及作者西蒙·弗勞爾斯表示：“在歐佩克+的管理下，根據我們的預測，2022年市場將再次恢復平衡。”

弗勞爾斯表示，到第三季度，需求增加450萬桶/天，回到疫情前1億桶/天的水平，供應增加480萬桶/天，約一半來自歐佩克+。

他指出：“庫存顯示，2022年第一季度將出現盈余，不太會影響供應。我們預測布倫特平均每桶70美元/桶，略低于2021年。”

弗勞爾斯表示，在風險方面，由于冠狀病毒及其變種的影響，伍德麥肯齊茲經將2022年的需求量削減了近10萬桶/天。

該咨詢集團預計高達100萬桶/天的原油可能在幾個月內重返市場。

吳恒磊 編譯自 OILNOW

原文如下：

Oil prices not likely to rise above $100/bbl this year for any sustained period – WoodMac

U.K. based consultancy group Wood Mackenzie says it is unlikely that oil prices will rise above $100 a barrel (bbl) for any sustained period in this year.

“Under the careful stewardship of OPEC+, the market is back in balance again in 2022 on our forecasts,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman, Chief Analyst and author of The Edge.

Flowers said demand increases by 4.5 million b/d back to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million b/d by Q3, whereas supply rises by 4.8 million b/d, around half from OPEC+.

“Implied inventories show a surplus in Q1 2022 – we do not expect a shortage of supply. Our forecast is for Brent to average US$70/bbl, marginally below 2021,” he pointed out.

Regarding risks, Flowers said due to the impact of the coronavirus and its variants, WoodMac has already trimmed 2022 demand by almost 0.1 million b/d.

The consultancy group  expect up to 1 million b/d of crude could return to market within months.

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