? 在水力壓裂革命讓美國頁巖油氣行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流枯竭、負(fù)債累累之后，華爾街加大了對油氣行業(yè)的壓力，要求它們削減債務(wù)并提高股東價值  

? 在2021年油價上漲期間，美國頁巖行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出了令人難以置信的克制  

? 新井的投資比2014年的峰值下降了60%，這可能會在2022年推高油價  

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)報道，長期飽受失控性通貨膨脹之苦的美國人終于得到了喘息的機會。 美國汽車協(xié)會(AAA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在持續(xù)攀升之后，美國汽油價格一直在下降，全國平均汽油價格跌至每加侖3.28美元，為10周以來的最低點，然而專家們認(rèn)為這只是一付創(chuàng)可貼。 雖然很多人把油價高企歸咎于政府，但真正的罪魁禍?zhǔn)资侨A爾街，而不是賓夕法尼亞大道。

美國如今的高油價的根源可以追溯到石油公司的財務(wù)壓力，10年來災(zāi)難性的虧損和糟糕的股東回報迫使石油公司大幅改變商業(yè)模式。 多年來，在水力壓裂革命導(dǎo)致美國頁巖行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流失、負(fù)債累累之后，華爾街一直在向油氣公司施壓，要求它們削減資本支出，并將現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移到提高股息和回購股票、償還債務(wù)以及脫碳等財務(wù)目標(biāo)上。 

因此，新井的投資自2014年峰值以來暴跌了60%，導(dǎo)致美國原油日產(chǎn)量在新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)之際暴跌了300多萬桶，跌幅近25%，之后原油產(chǎn)量未能隨著經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇而復(fù)蘇。  

沒有新的鉆井活動

由于華爾街緊盯不放，美國頁巖行業(yè)實際上空運行：美國能源信息署（EIA）的最新鉆井生產(chǎn)力報告顯示，美國在2021年7月有5957口已開鉆但未完鉆（DUCs）井，這是2017年11月以來任何月份美國DUC數(shù)最少的一個月。美國DUC數(shù)在2019年曾達(dá)到8900口。 按照這個減少速度，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商將不得不大幅增加新井的鉆井量，才能維持目前的原油產(chǎn)量。  

EIA表示，美國大多數(shù)主要陸上產(chǎn)油區(qū)的DUC數(shù)急劇下降，反映出完井?dāng)?shù)量增加，同時新鉆井活動減少，這證明頁巖生產(chǎn)商一直在堅持減少鉆井作業(yè)的承諾。 盡管更多井的完井提高了原油產(chǎn)量，特別是在二疊系盆地的原油產(chǎn)量，但完井也大幅降低了DUC庫存，這可能會極大地限制美國未來幾個月的原油產(chǎn)量增長。  

投產(chǎn)水平井、水力壓裂井的兩個主要階段是鉆井和完井階段。 鉆井階段包括派遣鉆機和鉆井隊，然后鉆井工人在一個鉆井平臺上鉆一口或多口井。 下一個階段，即完井階段，通常由不同的鉆井隊工人完成，包括下套管、固井、射孔和水力壓裂生產(chǎn)。 一般來說，鉆井和完井之間的時間間隔是幾個月，這導(dǎo)致了大量的DUC庫存，生產(chǎn)商可以將其作為工作庫存來管理石油生產(chǎn)。 

根據(jù)標(biāo)普資本智商公司公布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，2004年至2014年，美國27家主要石油生產(chǎn)商的資本支出增加了兩倍，達(dá)到了2940億美元，然后在2020年削減至1110億美元。 一旦老井被封頂，新井就無法迅速填補生產(chǎn)缺口。 問題是上市石油公司的這種限制不知道會持續(xù)多久。 預(yù)計2022年資本支出將達(dá)到1350億美元左右，同比增長21.6%，但仍不及2014年投資水平的一半。

股東回報  

除了嚴(yán)格限制新的鉆井活動以外，美國頁巖公司也一直在兌現(xiàn)其承諾，以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還更多現(xiàn)金。

美國進(jìn)步倡導(dǎo)團體網(wǎng)站Accountable.US最近刊登的一份報告說，美國24家大型能源公司中有16家2021年提高了股息，11家公司支付了總計超過365億美元的特別股息?？紤]到美國油氣行業(yè)2021年公布的利潤為1740億美元，這是一個相當(dāng)可觀的派息率。 事實上，“可變股息”可以讓油氣公司在形勢好的時候提高股息，在形勢不好的時候降低股息，這已經(jīng)成為油氣公司最喜歡的派息工具。 

與此同時，盡管?？松梨诠竞脱┓瘕埞疽殉兄Z在未來兩年內(nèi)回購多達(dá)200億美元的股票，但油氣公司已在股票回購上花費了80億美元。2021年，能源行業(yè)的股票上漲強勁，這可以解釋為什么投資者不愿在股票回購上花太多錢。

然而，油價在未來一年可能保持高位的最重要原因是歐佩克的紀(jì)律: 石油價格信息服務(wù)公司總裁湯姆· 克洛薩日前在接受美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)采訪時風(fēng)趣地表示：“這個卡特爾傳統(tǒng)上就像美國男星查理·辛的酗酒行為一樣有紀(jì)律，但到2020年，這個卡特爾就變得像奧運體操運動員一樣有紀(jì)律?！?/p>

石油短缺  

根據(jù)國際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，2022年全球原油日消費量預(yù)計將從2021年的9620萬桶提高到9953萬桶，僅略低于2019年的9955萬桶。 當(dāng)然，這將取決于世界能否迅速控制新冠病毒的奧密克戎變種。

更高的原油需求將給歐佩克和美國頁巖行業(yè)帶來滿足需求的壓力。 但我們不要忘記，許多歐佩克國家已經(jīng)在努力增加產(chǎn)量，而美國頁巖行業(yè)必須應(yīng)對投資者的需求，以維持支出。 到目前為止，美國頁巖行業(yè)并未像以往那樣對油價上漲做出反應(yīng)，2021年美國的平均原油日產(chǎn)量為1120萬桶，而2019年末的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄日產(chǎn)量為近1300萬桶。挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（ Rystad Energy）的分析高級副總裁Claudio Galimberti表示，到2022年，美國的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計只增加70萬桶，至1190萬桶。  

加拿大、挪威、圭亞那和巴西可能試圖彌補全球石油供需缺口，但一些華爾街投資者認(rèn)為，這還不夠，油價將繼續(xù)走高。 

事實上，巴克萊銀行預(yù)測，2022年美國WTI原油合同價格將從目前的每桶73美元漲至77美元，并指出政府出售戰(zhàn)略石油儲備的原油并不是一個可持續(xù)的降低油價的方法。 巴克萊銀行表示，如果疫情影響降至最低，從而使需求增長超過預(yù)期，原油價格可能會高于預(yù)期。 

高盛投資銀行認(rèn)同這一樂觀展望，并預(yù)測到2023年前布倫特原油價格將達(dá)到每桶85美元，而布倫特原油價格目前為每桶76.30美元。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Chronic Underinvestment Could Push Oil Prices Higher In 2022

·     After the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted. Wall Street ramped up pressure on companies to cut debt and boost shareholder value.

·     The U.S. shale industry has exercised incredible restraint during this year’s oil price rally.

·     Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, which could send oil prices higher in 2022.

Long-suffering Americans grappling with runaway inflation are finally enjoying some reprieve. After a relentless climb, prices at the pump have been heading south, with national average gas prices tumbling to a 10-week low of $3.28 a gallon, according to AAA. Fuel prices started leveling out after U.S.announced on November 23 the biggest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though experts have dismissed it as a mere band-aid. Whereas many people have placed the blame for high gas prices on the Biden administration, the real culprit has more to do with Wall Street than Pennsylvania Avenue.

The genesis of today's high gas prices can be traced back to financial pressure on oil companies from a decade of devastating losses and poor shareholder returns that have forced them to dramatically alter their business models. For years, Wall Street has pressured oil and gas companies to cut capex, and shift their cash to financial goals like boosting dividends and buybacks, paying down debt, as well as decarbonization, after the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted.

Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet by more than 3 million barrels a day, or nearly 25%, just as the Covid virus hit, and then failed to recover with the economy. 

No drilling

With Wall Street breathing down its neck, U.S. shale is literally running on empty: according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report, the United States had 5,957 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in July 2021, the lowest for any month since November 2017 from nearly 8,900 at its 2019 peak. At this rate, shale producers will have to sharply ramp up the drilling of new wells just to maintain the current production clip.

The EIA says the sharp decline in DUCs in most major U.S. onshore oil-producing regions reflects more well completions and, at the same time, less new well drilling activity--proof that shale producers have been sticking to their pledge to drill less. Whereas the higher completion rate of more wells has been increasing oil production, especially in the Permian region, the completions have sharply lowered DUC inventories, which could sharply limit oil production growth in the United States in the coming months.

The two main stages in bringing a horizontally drilled, hydraulically fractured well online are drilling and completion. The drilling phase involves dispatching a drilling rig and crew, who then drill one or more wells on a pad site. The next phase, well completion, is typically performed by a separate crew and involves casing, cementing, perforating, and hydraulically fracturing the well for production. In general, the time between the drilling and completion stages is several months, leading to a significant inventory of DUCs that producers can maintain as working inventory to manage oil production.

According to S&P Capital IQ data, 27 major oil makers tripled capital spending between 2004 and 2014 to $294 billion and then cut it to $111 billion by last year. once old wells were capped, new ones haven't been available to fill the production gap quickly. The question is how long the restraint by publicly traded oil companies will last. Capital spending is expected to clock in around $135 billion next year, good for a 21.6% Y/Y jump but still less than half 2014's level.

Shareholder returns

Other than severely limiting new drilling activity, U.S. shale has also been keeping its pledge to return more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

A recent report by progressive advocacy group Accountable.us says that 16 of 24 large U.S. energy companies have raised their dividends this year, while 11 made special dividend payouts totaling more than $36.5 billion. That's a pretty impressive payout ratio considering that the sector has so far reported $174 billion in profits this year. Indeed, "variable dividends" that allow companies to hike dividends when times are good and to lower them when the going gets tough has become a favorite tool for oil and gas companies.

Meanwhile, oil and gas companies have spent a more modest $8 billion in share buybacks, though ExxonMobil ((NYSE:XOM)and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have pledged to buy back as much as $20 billion of stock in the next two years. The energy sector has made robust share gains in the current year, which could explain the reluctance to spend too much on share repurchases.

The most important reason, however, why oil prices are likely to remain high in the coming year is OPEC discipline:

"You have a cartel that is traditionally as disciplined as Charlie Sheen's drinking, and for the last year, they've been as disciplined as Olympic gymnasts," Tom Kloza, president of Oil Price Information Service, has hilariously told CNBC.

Oil shortage

According to the IEA, crude consumption is expected to improve to 99.53 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 96.2 million bpd this year, leaving it just a hair short of 2019's daily consumption of 99.55 million barrels. That will, of course, depend on the world bringing the new Omicron variant of Covid-19 quickly under control.

Higher oil demand will put pressure on both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry to meet demand. But let's not forget that numerous OPEC nations have already been struggling to add to output, while the U.S. shale industry has to deal with investor demands to hold the line on spending. So far, the U.S. shale industry has not responded to higher oil prices as they had done previously, with overall U.S. production averaged 11.2 million bpd in 2021 compared with a record of nearly 13 million bpd in late 2019. U.S. production is expected to only increase by 700,000 b/d in 2022 to 11.9 b/d, according to Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis, Claudio Galimberti. 

Canada, Norway, Guyana, and Brazil could try to bridge the supply-demand gap, but several Wall Street punters are betting it will not be enough and oil prices will remain elevated.

In fact, Barclays has predicted that the WTI contract price will increase from the current rate of $73 to an average price of $77 in 2022, noting that the administration's sale of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't a sustainable way to bring down prices. Barclays says prices could go even higher than that forecast if COVID-19 outbreaks are minimized and thus allow demand to grow more than expected. 

Goldman Sachs shares that bullish outlook and has predicted a Brent price of $85 per barrel by 2023 compared to the current $76.30.

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