據OilNOW網站1月15日消息 2021年，全球排放交易計劃（ETS）的碳價格創下歷史新高，歐盟和英國的碳價格最高。然而，GlobalData指出，世界范圍內的價格仍然不足以按照巴黎協議減少排放。這家數據和分析公司強調，只有22%的溫室氣體明確定價，低于4%的溫室氣體定價為每噸40美元，這是實現巴黎協議目標所必需的最低價格。

GlobalData能源轉型分析師邁爾斯·溫斯坦表示：“增加碳成本是消除燃煤發電的關鍵戰略。例如，在英國，碳定價幫助該國在十年內大幅減少了對煤炭的依賴。雖然自2019年以來，歐盟的價格一直在穩步上漲，但歐洲和新西蘭仍是唯一價格超過每噸40美元最低價格的地區。加拿大、加利福尼亞和韓國正在接近這一價格。”

2021年，許多因素共同推動了碳價格的急劇上漲。

韋恩斯坦表示，2021年天然氣短缺導致天然氣價格上漲，這導致了許多電力生產商轉向煤，這意味著它們排放更多的二氧化碳，從而驅使排放量的需求。此外，脫碳政策的雄心壯志起到了關鍵作用，歐盟在2021年7月提出了更嚴格的ETS措施，歐盟ETS的市場投機也增加了價格。

在美國，有人提議征收沼氣費，如果獲得通過，將于2023年生效。到2025年，這將使甲烷價格從900美元/噸提高到1500美元/噸。在二氧化碳當量的基礎上，這分別從36美元/噸上升到60美元/噸。

溫斯坦表示：“這不僅是美國對溫室氣體排放征收的第一項稅，也是國家層面上的第一個碳價格，而且最終價格在滿足巴黎協議目標所需的范圍內。”

在全球范圍內，全球31個司法管轄區有ETS，35個司法管轄區有碳稅。碳定價的重要性可以通過全球850多家公司為各種目的使用內部碳定價來證明，從投資規劃到公司層面的減排目標。至少有七家石油和天然氣巨頭使用內部碳價格，從今天的25美元/噸到2030年的100美元/噸不等。

吳恒磊 編譯自 OilNOW

原文如下：

Natural gas shortage drove steep increase in carbon prices in 2021, says GlobalData

During 2021, emissions trading schemes (ETS) around the world saw record-high carbon prices, with the highest seen in the EU and UK. However, GlobalData notes that prices worldwide are still inadequate to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. The data and analytics company highlights that only 22% of greenhouse gases are explicitly priced and less than 4% are priced at $40/ton — the minimum price considered necessary to meet Paris Agreement targets.

“Increasing carbon costs is a key strategy towards eliminating coal-fired power production. In the UK, for example, carbon pricing helped the country drastically reduce reliance on coal within ten years,” said Miles Weinstein, Energy Transition Analyst at GlobalData. “While prices have been rising steadily in the EU since 2019, Europe and New Zealand remain the only regions with a price over the $40/ton bare minimum. Canada, California and South Korea are approaching that price.”

In 2021, a number of factors came together to drive a steeper increase in carbon prices.

Weinstein said the price of natural gas increased in 2021 driven by a natural gas shortage. “This caused a number of power producers to switch to coal, meaning they emitted more CO2 and thus drove demand for emission allowances. Further, the increased ambition of decarbonization policies played a key role, with the EU proposing stricter ETS measures in July 2021, and market speculation in the EU ETS also increased the price.”

In the US, a methane fee was proposed, which—if passed—will take effect in 2023. This would increase methane prices from $900/ton to $1500/ton in 2025. On a CO2-equivalent basis, this is a rise from $36/ton to $60/ton, respectively.

“Not only would this be the first tax on greenhouse gas emissions anywhere in the US, and the first ‘carbon’ price at a national level, but the final price is within the range needed to meet Paris Agreement targets,” Weinstein said.

Globally, 31 jurisdictions worldwide have an ETS, and 35 have a carbon tax. The importance of carbon pricing can be evidenced by the use of internal carbon pricing by over 850 companies worldwide for a variety of purposes, from investment planning to company-level emission reduction goals. At least seven oil and gas majors use internal carbon prices, ranging from $25/ton today to $100/ton by 2030.

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