據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)首爾報(bào)道，韓國(guó)計(jì)劃轉(zhuǎn)向氫。 我們應(yīng)該關(guān)心嗎? 目前有5200萬(wàn)人口的韓國(guó)是世界上第十大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，擁有世界第五大鋼鐵行業(yè)，韓國(guó)是全球一個(gè)主要的電子產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)國(guó),汽車產(chǎn)量世界排名第五和電池產(chǎn)量世界排名第二，國(guó)內(nèi)大型國(guó)際公司擁有世界級(jí)的技術(shù)能力。 這個(gè)國(guó)家?guī)缀鯖](méi)有什么自然資源，韓國(guó)有煤炭?jī)?chǔ)備，但其99%的煤炭消費(fèi)來(lái)自進(jìn)口，僅此而已。  

2021年11月，韓國(guó)批準(zhǔn)了2050年的氫目標(biāo)，其中包括中期目標(biāo)。 基本上，韓國(guó)希望用可再生能源取代煤炭消費(fèi)(政府控制著電力公司)，用氫取代石油進(jìn)口，并鼓勵(lì)大型工業(yè)能源用戶轉(zhuǎn)向氫。韓國(guó)擁有龐大的鋼鐵工業(yè)，這是轉(zhuǎn)型的主要目標(biāo)。 新聞報(bào)道稱，也由政府控制的韓國(guó)天然氣公司將在本國(guó)西南部建造一個(gè)氫氣生產(chǎn)設(shè)施。韓國(guó)政府也希望鼓勵(lì)碳儲(chǔ)存。 

現(xiàn)在說(shuō)說(shuō)策略。 毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，韓國(guó)不是生產(chǎn)綠色氫氣的理想國(guó)家。韓國(guó)政府計(jì)劃到2050年讓韓國(guó)生產(chǎn)不到所需20%的氫氣。 韓國(guó)將在海外投資生產(chǎn)氫氣的項(xiàng)目，這意味著韓國(guó)將為國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)和其他想要生產(chǎn)并銷售給韓國(guó)的企業(yè)打開(kāi)新的商機(jī)。韓國(guó)政府表示，它希望在此過(guò)程中創(chuàng)建30家全球性的氫公司。我們猜想，屆時(shí)有許多氫公司將用今天的韓國(guó)大公司的名字。 

如果成功，韓國(guó)氫戰(zhàn)略將體現(xiàn)出制定明確的政策，并在此過(guò)程中創(chuàng)造商機(jī)的價(jià)值。 韓國(guó)氫戰(zhàn)略還表明了一種信念的回歸，即世界貿(mào)易和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)是好的，但不要依靠它們來(lái)找到解決全球氣候變化或能源安全的辦法。韓國(guó)人仍將從國(guó)外獲得大部分能源，但最有可能的是從韓國(guó)控制的氫生產(chǎn)商那里獲得能源，而不是外國(guó)政府或私人控制的石油、天然氣和煤炭。 選擇生產(chǎn)氫的傳統(tǒng)國(guó)內(nèi)能源公司可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被市場(chǎng)拒之門外。 如果其他國(guó)家效仿，能源市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)變得越來(lái)越分裂。

傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略是留出一個(gè)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，讓當(dāng)?shù)毓驹谠撌袌?chǎng)發(fā)展技能和規(guī)模，并希望這些公司達(dá)到一定技能和規(guī)模的水平，以便在國(guó)外進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。 也許我們能夠從韓國(guó)人那里學(xué)到一些東西。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

What We Can Learn From South Korea’s Hydrogen Strategy

South Korea plans a pivot to hydrogen. Should we care? Well, South Korea, with a population of 52 million, is the tenth largest economy in the world, has the fifth largest steel industry in the world, is a major producer of electronics, automobiles (# 5 in world) and batteries (#2), and the home to huge international corporations with world class technological abilities. The country has little in the way of natural resources (it has coal reserves but imports 99% of its coal consumption, and that’s it. 

In November 2021, the cabinet approved a hydrogen target for 2050, with intermediate goals. Basically, the government wants to replace coal consumption with renewables (the government controls the electric company) and replace oil imports with hydrogen and encourage big industrial users of energy to turn to hydrogen. (Korea has a big steel industry, a main target for conversion.) News stories say that the gas company (also controlled by the government) will build a hydrogen production facility in the southwest of the country. The government also wants to encourage carbon storage. We assume that in a country with a tightly knit industrial base controlled by a few families, that the government has consulted with it and has bought in. 

Now for the strategy. You will no doubt argue that Korea is not an ideal spot for green hydrogen production. Well the government plans for Korea to produce less than 20% of the hydrogen it will need in 2050. It will invest in overseas projects that will produce hydrogen, and that really means that it will open up a new business opportunity for Korean companies and others that want to produce for sale to Korea. The government says it wants to create 30 global hydrogen companies in the process. We suspect that many will sport the names of today’s major Korean companies. 

The Korean strategy, if it works, will demonstrate the value of setting a clear policy, and creating business opportunities in the process. It also demonstrates a return to the belief that world trade and competitive markets are okay, but do not depend on them to find solutions to global climate change or energy security. (Okay, the Koreans would still get most of their energy from abroad, but most likely from Korean-controlled manufacturers of hydrogen, not from foreign-state or privately-controlled oil and gas and coal. ) Traditional internal energy companies that choose to go into hydrogen production might find themselves shut out of the market. If other countries follow suit, the energy market could become more and more balkanized.

The traditional economic development strategy was to set aside a domestic market, let local companies develop skills and scale in that market, and hope that those companies reach a level of skill and scale to compete abroad. Maybe we could learn something from the Koreans

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