據美國彭博新聞社2022年1月27日報道，全球柴油庫存的大幅下降使得柴油市場很容易受到價格飆升的影響。

在歐洲，歐洲大陸最大的煉油廠正在準備開工，這將限制其柴油產量。 與此同時，美國煉油商將生產汽油列為優先事項，這進一步削弱柴油供應。   

所有這些都有助于進一步縮減全球柴油庫存，并推高燃油相對于原油的溢價——這是煉油廠的關鍵指標。 由于產量和庫存受到抑制，市場對需求超出預期或煉油廠突然減產變得越來越敏感。  

咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲負責煉油、化工和石油市場的副總裁Alan Gelder表示，“我們確實認為，如果柴油需求強勁，或出現多家煉油廠停產，今年第一季度的柴油價格有可能大幅上調。”

柴油用于運輸、卡車運輸以及重工業。 柴油也是煉油廠生產的主要衍生產品之一，這意味著價格波動是更廣泛的通脹問題的一部分，正在給全球各國政府和央行帶來壓力。  

多年來的低點

美國和新加坡公布的數據顯示，柴油庫存處于多年來的季節性低點。 歐洲西北部的石油交易中心也是如此，其獨立儲存的石油庫存比過去5年的平均水平低40%。 Gelder說，煉油廠的開工率減少是問題的一個重要部分，尤其是在歐洲。 歐洲地區的煉油廠正在為高昂的天然氣成本和碳排放而苦苦掙扎。  

與此同時，國際能源署的數據顯示，今年全球對公路燃料的需求將達到新冠肺炎疫情爆發前水平的99.7%。

與原油相比，柴油不那么容易受到供應沖擊——煉油廠數量比主要原油供應商多得多——而且它們一般不太容易受到政府干預。

不過，柴油供應緊張確實與石油市場對缺乏備用產能的普遍擔憂有關。  

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下： 

Diesel Market Looks at Risk of Price Spikes

A slump in global diesel stockpiles has left the market vulnerable to price spikes.

In Europe, the continent’s largest oil refinery is starting work that will curb its output. At the same time, U.S. refiners are prioritizing making gasoline, further eroding supply. 

All that has helped to further shrink inventories globally and drive up the premium the fuel commands over crude -- the key metric for oil refineries. With output and stockpiles curbed, that’s created a market increasingly sensitive to either demand exceeding expectations, or out-of-the blue output reductions at refineries.

“We do see the potential for a sharp upward correction in diesel prices during the first quarter if demand comes in stronger or there are a number of refinery outages,” said Alan Gelder, vice president for refining, chemicals & oil markets at consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

Diesel is used in transport and trucking as well as heavy industry. It’s also one of the main products that oil refineries churn out, meaning price moves are part of the wider inflation story that’s pressuring governments and central banks the world over.

Multiyear Lows

In the U.S. and Singapore, data point to diesel inventories being at multiyear seasonal lows. The same is true in northwest Europe’s oil trading hub, where stockpiles held in independent storage are 40% below the five-year average. Reduced refinery runs are a big part of the problem, particularly in Europe, Gelder said. The region’s plants are struggling with high costs of natural gas and carbon emissions.

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Meanwhile, global demand for the road fuel is set to reach 99.7% of pre-pandemic levels this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

Diesel is less vulnerable to supply shocks than crude -- there are many more refineries than major crude suppliers -- and they are generally less subject to government intervention.

Still, diesel’s tightness does tie into the oil market’s broader concern about a lack of spare production capacity.

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