據(jù)2月15日Oil Monster消息：摩根大通全球股票研究表示，歐佩克+產(chǎn)量不足和產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致石油市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)緊張，油價(jià)最早可能在今年第二季度達(dá)到每桶125美元。
該行在2月11日的一份報(bào)告中表示:“供應(yīng)不足將在2022年持續(xù)上升，因?yàn)闅W佩克+不太可能偏離目標(biāo)配額增長(zhǎng)，這將推高油價(jià)每桶逾30美元的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)?！?/p>
周一，由于烏俄緊張局勢(shì)升級(jí)，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格約為每桶94.55美元，而美國(guó)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)交易價(jià)格約為每桶93.19美元。
歐佩克及其盟友(即歐佩克+)最近將月產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)提高了40萬(wàn)桶/天，但多次未能實(shí)現(xiàn)。
在多年投資不足后，一些參與國(guó)正在努力提高產(chǎn)出。
國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在其最新月度報(bào)告中表示，1月份歐佩克+目標(biāo)產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量之間的差距已擴(kuò)大至90萬(wàn)桶/天。
“這種表現(xiàn)不佳的情況出現(xiàn)在一個(gè)關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻，在我們看來(lái)，隨著全球其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)陷入困境，歐佩克+國(guó)家內(nèi)部投資不足和疫情后石油需求上升的共同作用將導(dǎo)致潛在的能源危機(jī)。”摩根大通表示。
“此外，我們注意到非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)對(duì)油價(jià)上漲的供應(yīng)反應(yīng)平淡(主要是更加關(guān)注過(guò)渡/現(xiàn)金回報(bào))，這可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加10美元/桶的溢價(jià)?！狈治鰩熝a(bǔ)充道。
馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster
原文如下：
Tight Oil Market Could See Prices Hit $125 in Q2, JP Morgan Says
Shortfalls in OPEC+ production and spare capacity concerns are likely to keep the oil market tight and prices could hit $125 per barrel as early as the second quarter of this year, JP Morgan Global Equity Research said.
"Supply undershoot set to rise through 2022 as OPEC+ unlikely to deviate from targeted quota increases – driving a higher risk premium of more than $30 per barrel to oil prices," the bank said in a note dated Feb. 11.
Brent crude on Monday was trading around $94.55 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $93.19 a barrel around 1107 GMT amid escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has raised its monthly output target by 400,000 barrels per day recently but has repeatedly failed to achieve those increases.
Some participating countries are struggling to ramp up output following years of under-investment.
The International Energy Agency in its last monthly report said the gap between the OPEC+ target and actual output in January had widened to 900,000 bpd.
"This underperformance comes at a critical juncture – and in our view, as other global producers falter, the combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and post-pandemic rising oil demand will dovetail to a potential point of energy crisis," JP Morgan said.
"In addition, we note a muted supply response by non-OPEC producers to higher prices (led by a greater focus on transition/cash return) could add a further $10/bbl premium," the analysts added.
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