據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2022年2月21日利雅得報道，中東和北非地區(qū)(MENA)今年的能源投資預(yù)計將從8050億美元起增加，并在未來5年內(nèi)繼續(xù)增加，原因是石油和天然氣價格上漲，以及計劃中的非常規(guī)天然氣和上游投資增加。  

對于石化產(chǎn)品，MENA地區(qū)進一步整合和合理化的努力將繼續(xù)進行，重新配置的石化廠將轉(zhuǎn)向高利潤產(chǎn)品，如塑料包裝膜和保健和衛(wèi)生產(chǎn)品。

阿拉伯石油投資公司（Apicorp）在其2022年年度最佳選擇展望報告中表示，MENA地區(qū)預(yù)計將塑造今年該地區(qū)能源市場格局的主要趨勢。

Apicorp說，“我們將在下游項目中看到強勁投資管道反映了MENA地區(qū)推動把更多資金投向下游項目，特別是棕地石化項目，而不是綠地項目。 鑒于目前的市場環(huán)境更傾向于提高現(xiàn)有項目的成本和運營效率，而不是單純的擴張，這是有道理的。”

至于能源市場，該報告預(yù)測，由于歐佩克+和非歐佩克國家的石油產(chǎn)量增加，以及天然氣產(chǎn)量和液化天然氣供應(yīng)的增加，能源市場在今年將保持相對穩(wěn)定。 預(yù)計布倫特原油均價將在65美元/桶 和75美元/桶之間。 至于天然氣，亞洲和歐洲的JKM和TTF/NBP樞紐價格預(yù)計將從去年的歷史高點大幅下降，特別是在冬季之后。  

與此同時，在Apicorp最新的5年展望報告中，MENA地區(qū)能源投資小幅增加了130億美元，在今年的中期，石油和天然氣價格的上漲將持續(xù)下去。  

報告分析的趨勢包括油氣價格對MENA地區(qū)能源投資的影響，以及拖累整體經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的主要因素。

Apicorp首席執(zhí)行官Ahmed Ali Attiga博士指出：“盡管大宗商品價格的波動預(yù)計將持續(xù)到2022年，但短期內(nèi)的好消息是，石油和天然氣價格可能在今年全年保持高位，這為包括可再生能源和ESG相關(guān)項目在內(nèi)的能源投資提供了支持。 MENA地區(qū)的電力行業(yè)投資預(yù)計也將繼續(xù)繁榮，并加速向可再生能源的轉(zhuǎn)型。 總的來說，MENA地區(qū)預(yù)計將在未來5年增加近20吉瓦的太陽能發(fā)電。  

MENA地區(qū)將成為正在進行的全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型的中心舞臺，所有人的目光都將轉(zhuǎn)向埃及和阿聯(lián)酋，埃及將在今年11月份主辦第27屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會，而阿聯(lián)酋將于2023年主辦第28屆聯(lián)合國氣候變化大會。 然而，報告指出，盡管這一轉(zhuǎn)型繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步推進，但它可能會受到來自各國政府的混合政策信號的影響，因為它們試圖平衡減排、能源可負擔性和能源安全等往往很難協(xié)調(diào)的任務(wù)。  

因此，需要一項可持續(xù)和全面的政策，以避免政策規(guī)模過于傾向于這些因素之一，因為這可能導(dǎo)致意想不到的后果，如市場扭曲、加劇波動和能源短缺。

由于疫情大流行、宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的不確定性以及供應(yīng)鏈中斷，今年大宗商品市場的持續(xù)波動預(yù)計將進一步加劇政策制定者本已承受的巨大壓力。 盡管去年出現(xiàn)溫和的——盡管不均衡的——復(fù)蘇，但這種改善還需要一段時間才能轉(zhuǎn)移到下游領(lǐng)域，并緩解今年的成本壓力。  

報告對能源投資趨勢的分析表明，預(yù)計今年石油和天然氣價格繼續(xù)強勁，為恢復(fù)新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的活動提供了機會。

圍繞復(fù)蘇的不確定性將繼續(xù)影響市場動態(tài)的最終走向。 鑒于全球疫苗的不平等和新冠病毒的不斷演變，各國政府仍在努力應(yīng)對公共衛(wèi)生與經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇之間的兩難局面。  

除了全球貿(mào)易、供應(yīng)鏈和服務(wù)外，當前全球病例數(shù)激增也將對國際旅行和旅游業(yè)產(chǎn)生不利影響。 這將削弱今年的經(jīng)濟增長，這已經(jīng)促使一些地區(qū)略微下調(diào)了今年的GDP增長預(yù)測，并可能導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟不對稱復(fù)蘇，這未必對所有國家都是可持續(xù)的。

另一個不確定性來自于政府需要采取財政緊縮措施來控制開支和抑制飆升的通貨膨脹。 盡管去年底市場回報率很高(標準普爾500指數(shù)回報率為27%)，但高就業(yè)增長和大宗商品價格飆升推高了通脹率。

由于公共財政刺激計劃的撤出、資產(chǎn)購買計劃的縮減以及利率的上升，人們對滯脹的擔憂日益迫近。 盡管這些措施很可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇放緩，但在通脹周期逐漸升溫的情況下，滯后的失業(yè)率預(yù)計仍將相對較高，而通脹周期可能終究不是短暫的。

李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Energy investments in Mena will continue to grow: Apicorp

Energy investments in Middle East and North Africa (Mena) are forecast to grow in 2022 from $805 billion and continue in the next five years on the strength of higher oil and gas prices and planned unconventional gas and upstream investments.

For petrochemicals, the drive for further integration and rationalisation will continue with reconfigurable petrochemical plants shifting to high-margin products such as plastic packaging films and healthcare and hygiene products, The Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp), a multilateral development financial institution, said in its annual Top Picks 2022 outlook on the key trends that are expected to shape the Mena energy markets landscape this year.

“The strong pipeline of investments we are seeing in the downstream projects reflects the region’s push to direct more funds to this sector, especially in brownfield petrochemicals projects versus greenfield ones. This makes sense in light of the current market conditions which favor improving cost and operating efficiencies in existing projects rather than sheer expansion,” said Nicolas Thevenot, Managing Director of Corporate Banking at Apicorp.

As for the energy markets, the report forecasts that they will remain comparatively stable during 2022 due to higher oil production by Opec+ and non-Opec countries and increased gas production and LNG supply. Brent is expected to average between $65/bbl. and $75/bbl. As for gas, the JKM and TTF/NBP hub prices in Asia and Europe are expected to cool down considerably from their all-time highs of 2021, especially after the winter season.

Meanwhile, the uptick in regional energy investments, which registered a modest $13 billion increase in Apicorp’s latest five-year outlook, will continue over the mid-term on the strength of higher oil and gas prices throughout 2022.

Among the trends the report examines is the impact of oil and gas prices on energy investments in the region and the main factors weighing down on broader economic recovery. 

“Despite the volatility in commodity prices which is expected to persist throughout 2022, the good news in the short-term is that oil and gas prices will likely remain elevated throughout the year, providing support for energy investments including renewable energy and ESG-related projects. Power sector investments in Mena are also expected to continue to thrive, with an accelerating shift towards renewables. Collectively, the region is expected to add nearly 20 GW of solar power over the next five years,” noted Dr Ahmed Ali Attiga, CEO of Apicorp.

The Mena region will take centre stage in the ongoing global energy transition as all eyes shift to Egypt, which will host COP27 in November -- and UAE for COP28 in 2023. Yet while the transition continues to steadily gain momentum, the report notes that it may be marred by mixed policy signals from governments as they attempt to balance imperatives which are oftentimes very difficult to align: emissions reduction, energy affordability and energy security.

Thus, a sustainable and comprehensive policy is needed in order to avoid tilting the policy scale too far towards in favor of one of these factors, as this may lead to unintended consequences such as market distortions, heightened volatility, and energy shortfalls.

The already substantial pressure on policymakers is expected to be further exacerbated by continued volatility in commodity markets in 2022 due to the pandemic, uncertainty over macroeconomic policy, and supply chain disruptions. Despite the modest –-albeit uneven—recovery in 2021, it will take time for this improvement to migrate downstream and ease cost pressures this year.

The report’s analysis of energy investment trends suggests that the expected robust oil and gas prices in 2022 have triggered an opportunity to return to pre-pandemic activity. 

The uncertainty around Covid recovery will continue to influence how market dynamics will ultimately play out. Given the global vaccine inequity and a constantly evolving virus, governments are still grappling with the dilemma of public health versus economic recovery. 

In addition to global trade, supply chains and services, the current surge in cases globally will also adversely affect international travel and tourism. This will dent economic growth during 2022, which has already prompted a slight downward revision of the 2022 GDP growth forecasts in some regions and a likely asymmetric global recovery that is not necessarily sustainable for all countries.

Another uncertainty stems from the need for governments to introduce fiscal austerity measures to rein in spending and curb soaring inflation. Although markets ended 2021 with high returns (27% in the case of the S&P 500 index), high jobs growth and soaring commodity prices pushed inflation rates higher.

A fear of stagflation looms as public fiscal stimulus packages are withdrawn, asset purchasing programs are tapered and interest rates rise. While these measures will very likely cause economic recovery to slow down, the lagging unemployment rates are expected to remain relatively high amid a simmering inflationary cycle that may turn out not to be transitory after all.