? 美國頁巖行業(yè)正在尋求提高產(chǎn)量，但它面臨著兩大障礙，可能會遏制其發(fā)展軌跡。  

? 供應(yīng)鏈問題、失控的通貨膨脹和日益嚴重的勞動力短缺阻礙了頁巖行業(yè)提高產(chǎn)量的能力。

? 先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特?謝菲爾德表示：“即使政府希望我們增產(chǎn)，我也不認為這個行業(yè)能夠增產(chǎn)。”

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)3月1日報道，美國頁巖產(chǎn)量正在恢復(fù)增長，但通脹和供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸可能會阻礙今年美國的頁巖產(chǎn)量增長軌跡，盡管油價已高達每桶100美元。  

據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）最新估計，美國2023年的原油日產(chǎn)量將達到創(chuàng)紀錄的1260萬桶，而今年的平均原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將為1200萬桶，比去年日增76萬桶。  

然而，成本上漲、勞動力和設(shè)備短缺，以及對支出的持續(xù)限制和對最大獨立石油公司油氣鉆探的限制，可能會減緩頁巖產(chǎn)量的增長。 與2019年和2018年分別超過120萬桶/天和160萬桶/天的上升周期相比，美國頁巖領(lǐng)域在降低國際原油價格和美國汽油價格方面發(fā)揮的作用將更小。  

“頁巖產(chǎn)量增長面臨的阻力” 

美國頁巖巨頭依歐格資源公司首席執(zhí)行官以斯拉· 雅各布在日前舉行的財報電話會議上表示：“我們認為，美國今年的頁巖產(chǎn)量增長肯定會遇到一些阻力。”

雅各布補充說，“當我們考慮到已經(jīng)公開討論過的頁巖產(chǎn)量增長預(yù)測時，我們可能更偏向于原油和凝析油的低端。 究其原因，我認為你會看到北美勘探開發(fā)領(lǐng)域承諾保持自律，再加上通脹和供應(yīng)鏈壓力。”

依歐格資源公司總裁兼首席運營官比利·赫爾姆斯指出，今年美國頁巖領(lǐng)域開發(fā)活動和產(chǎn)量增長面臨很多阻力。

赫爾姆斯在電話會議上表示，設(shè)備和勞動力的短缺是其中的一些不利因素，他舉例說，在吸引鉆井和壓裂階段的工人方面存在挑戰(zhàn)，而且“大多數(shù)優(yōu)質(zhì)設(shè)備目前都已投入使用”。  

“希望這個行業(yè)能夠在前進的基礎(chǔ)上加強并變得更好。 但從這方面來說，今年將是充滿挑戰(zhàn)的一年，”赫爾姆斯如是說。

過去幾周，其他頁巖生產(chǎn)商和油田服務(wù)提供商都表示，今年的頁巖產(chǎn)量增長面臨不利因素。 例如，在最大的頁巖遠景區(qū)二疊紀盆地，壓裂砂的供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)短缺，這可能會延緩一些生產(chǎn)商的鉆井計劃，并導(dǎo)致砂價飆升。 這進一步增加了美國石油生產(chǎn)商的成本壓力，他們已經(jīng)在努力應(yīng)對設(shè)備成本上漲和勞動力短缺。

分析師說，從理論上講，每桶100美元的油價可能會讓美國的石油產(chǎn)量大幅增加，但供應(yīng)鏈限制和創(chuàng)紀錄的沙價格可能會抑制產(chǎn)量增長。  

美國最大水力壓裂服務(wù)提供商哈里伯頓首席執(zhí)行官杰夫·米勒在1月份舉行的第四季度收益電話會議上表示：“毫無疑問，備受期待的多年上升周期現(xiàn)在正在進行。” 但他也指出，“隨著經(jīng)濟活動加速，市場出現(xiàn)了與貨運、勞動力、沙子和其他投入相關(guān)的緊張局面。”

最大的獨立石油公司控制產(chǎn)量增長

撇開供應(yīng)鏈和成本通脹不談，美國最大的獨立石油公司并沒有競相開采過多的原油，即使油價每桶達到100美元。  

二疊紀盆地最大的石油生產(chǎn)商先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特?謝菲爾德表示，該公司將不會打開水龍頭，即使油價達到200美元，也將堅守生產(chǎn)原則。

謝菲爾德2月份接受彭博電視臺記者采訪時表示：“無論是油價150美元、200美元還是100美元，我們都不會改變頁巖產(chǎn)量增長計劃。”

美國頁巖行業(yè)公眾獨立人士的資本約束對美國汽油價格和支持率來說都不是一個好兆頭。 然而，先鋒自然資源公司、大陸資源公司、響尾蛇能源公司和德文能源公司等公司保持紀律，計劃每年的頁巖產(chǎn)量增幅不超過5%。 

響尾蛇能源公司董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官特拉維斯?斯蒂斯在日前舉行的財報電話會議上表示：“響尾蛇能源公司的團隊和董事會認為，我們沒有理由把頁巖產(chǎn)量增長放在股東回報之前。 因此，我們將繼續(xù)保持紀律，保持今年的石油產(chǎn)量持平。” 

先鋒自然資源公司謝菲爾德表示，大型頁巖公司的資本支出紀律和許多生產(chǎn)商面臨的供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸將限制美國石油產(chǎn)量的增長。  

謝菲爾德在2月份曾告訴彭博社記者，“其他幾家生產(chǎn)商在尋找壓裂工人方面遇到了困難，他們找不到勞動力，也找不到沙子；這將阻礙頁巖產(chǎn)量的增長。”

謝菲爾德表示：“即使政府希望我們增加頁巖產(chǎn)量，我也不認為這個行業(yè)能夠增產(chǎn)。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

High Oil Prices Aren’t Enough To Tempt Shale Producers

·     America’s shale industry is looking to ramp up production, but it is facing two major hurdles that could curb its trajectory.

·     Supply chain issues, runaway inflation and a growing labor shortage have hindered the industry’s ability to increase output. 

·    "Even if the president wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway," said Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield.

U.S. shale production is back in growth mode, but inflation and supply chain bottlenecks could hobble the growth trajectory this year despite the tempting economics of $100 oil.  

The United States is set to post an annual record of 12.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production in 2023, while this year's average is forecast at 12 million bpd, up by 760,000 bpd from last year, according to EIA's latest estimates.

Yet, cost inflation, labor and equipment shortages, and continued restraint in spending and drilling from the biggest public independents could slow output growth. The U.S. shale patch is set to play a more minor role in potentially bringing down international crude oil prices and American gasoline prices than it did in the previous upcycles when annual growth topped 1.2 million bpd in 2019 and 1.6 million bpd in 2018.

'Headwinds To Growth'

"We think the U.S. is definitely going to face some headwinds in growth on this year," Ezra Yacob, chief executive of shale giant EOG Resources, said on the earnings call last week.

"When we think about the growth forecasts that are out there and have been publicly discussed, we're probably a bit more on the lower end in general on the crude and condensate side. And the reason for that is I think you're seeing commitment from the North American E&P space to remain disciplined and then you couple that with some of the inflationary and supply chain pressures," Yacob added.

EOG Resources president and chief operating officer Billy Helms noted that there are a lot of headwinds for the U.S. shale patch to ramp up activity and grow production this year.

Equipment and labor constraints are some of those headwinds, Helms said on the call, giving as examples challenges in attracting workers for the drilling and frac stages and the fact that "most of the good equipment is already under employment today."

"And hopefully, the industry can strengthen and get better on a go-forward basis. But this year is going to be a challenging year from that side," said Helms.

Over the past weeks, other shale producers and oilfield services providers have flagged headwinds to this year's growth. For example, frac sand in the biggest shale play, the Permian, is in short supply, threatening to slow drilling programs at some producers and sending sand prices skyrocketing. This adds further cost pressure to American oil producers, who are already grappling with cost inflation in equipment and labor shortages.  

$100 oil could unleash a lot more U.S. oil production, in theory, but supply chain constraints and record-high sand prices are likely to temper growth, analysts say.

"There is no doubt, the much-anticipated multiyear upcycle is now underway," Jeff Miller, CEO at the biggest fracking services provider, Halliburton, said on the Q4 earnings call in January. But he also noted that "As activity accelerates, the market is seeing tightness related to trucking, labor, sand, and other inputs."

Biggest Independents Rein In Production Growth

Supply chain and cost inflation aside, the largest public independents in the U.S. shale patch are not racing to pump too much crude, even at $100 oil.

Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest oil producer in the Permian, will not open the taps and will stick to discipline even at $200 oil, says chief executive Scott Sheffield.  

"Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans," Sheffield told Bloomberg Television in an interview last month.  

The capital discipline from the public independents in the U.S. shale patch doesn't bode well for U.S. gasoline prices and for President Biden's approval ratings. Yet, companies like Pioneer Natural Resources, Continental Resources, and Devon Energy are keeping discipline and plan to grow production by no more than 5 percent annually. Diamondback Energy is also part of that crowd.

"Diamondback's team and board believe that we have no reason to put growth before returns. Our shareholders, the owners of our company, agreed. And as a result, we will continue to be disciplined, keeping our oil production flat this year," chairman and CEO Travis Stice said on the earnings call last week.

Capex discipline from the largest shale firms and the supply chain bottlenecks for many producers will cap U.S. oil production growth, according to Pioneer's Sheffield. 

"Several other producers are having trouble getting frack crews, they're having trouble getting labor and they're having trouble getting sand; that's going to keep anybody from growing," he told Bloomberg in February. 

"Even if the government wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway," said Sheffield.