美國油價網(wǎng)2022年3月8日報道，高盛公司表示，全球可能面臨“有史以來最大的能源供應(yīng)沖擊”，今年的平均油價將達(dá)到每桶135美元。

這家投資銀行大幅上調(diào)了其對2022年和2023年油價的預(yù)測。 高盛公司目前預(yù)計，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格平均每桶135美元，高于早些時候預(yù)期的98美元。高盛公司目前對2023年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格的預(yù)測為每桶115美元，而此前的預(yù)測為105美元。

高盛公司表示：“短期內(nèi)，應(yīng)對這種供應(yīng)沖擊需要全球戰(zhàn)略儲備、核心-歐佩克、和更高價格的共同幫助，以減少消費(fèi)。”

高盛銀行上周曾表示，市場在地緣政治風(fēng)險溢價中尚未完全定價 。

高盛公司上周在每桶100美元低位交易時曾表示：“市場可能低估了石油定價供應(yīng)趨緊的風(fēng)險，這仍是持續(xù)沖突的一個關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險，因此我們認(rèn)為這里的‘風(fēng)險溢價’可能會更大。” 

一周后，油價已經(jīng)超過了高盛公司的預(yù)測，即4月份將升至每桶115美元。 布倫特原油交易周二早盤上漲了3.5%，在127美元以上，而WTI原油上漲了3%至123美元。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices To Average $135 Per Barrel This Year

Oil prices are set to average $135 per barrel this year as the world could face the “l(fā)argest energy supply shocks ever” ，according to Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank significantly hiked its oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023. Goldman now sees the spot Brent Crude price averaging $135 a barrel this year, up from $98 expected earlier. The forecast for 2023 is now $115 a barrel spot Brent, compared to $105 previously. 

“In the short term, coping with such a supply shock would require the combined help of global strategic reserves, core-OPEC,and higher prices to reduce consumption,” Goldman Sachs said.

Last week, the bank said that the market hadn’t fully priced in the geopolitical risk premium.

“The market may be underestimating the risks of tighter supply on oil pricing, which remains a key risk from the ongoing conflict -- so we think the ‘risk premium’ here should probably be larger,” said Goldman Sachs when oil prices traded in the low $100s last week.

A week later, oil had already blown past Goldman’s prediction of rising to $115 over the next month. Brent traded up 3.5% early on Tuesday at above $127, while WTI Crude was up 3% at $123.