據今日石油網2022年3月21日報道，圭亞那當局日前表示，圭亞那將致力于支持一項在其海岸以外積極油氣勘探和生產的計劃，因為圭亞那認為，石油和天然氣行業的收入在這個南美國家的能源轉型中將發揮關鍵作用。 

根據挪威雷斯塔能源公司的說法，這很可能是事實。 但令人震驚的不僅僅是圭亞那石油工業可能的長期發展。 另外，圭亞那的石油產量在21世紀30年代將會繼續增長，而世界大多數主要的近海深水生產商屆時將會看到他們的產量水平下降。  

這是雷斯塔能源公司拉丁美洲分析師Sofia Forestieri在日前舉行的加勒比油氣虛擬峰會上做出的分析。

在介紹加勒比海油氣行業的競爭格局時，Forestieri將圭亞那和蘇里南的前景與世界上主要的深水生產國(包括挪威、英國、墨西哥和美國)進行了比較。

她說：“隨著項目上線，我們看到圭亞那和蘇里南以一種非常重要、非常成功的方式增加產量。”

今年，在埃克森美孚公司擔任作業者的圭亞那斯塔布魯克區塊深水開發項目的總日產能將達到34萬桶。 

Forestieri解釋說，到2031年前，圭亞那的原油日產量預計將超過100萬桶，屆時圭亞那將超過挪威和安哥拉，成為世界上第三大深水產油國。 

Forestieri表示：“到2033年前，我們預計圭亞那的原油產量將超過美國墨西哥灣，成為全球第二大深水原油生產國。”  

雷斯塔能源公司還預計，到那時，除3個深水產油國外，所有深水產油國的原油日產量都將低于100萬桶。 預計到2035年，圭亞那仍將以日產170萬桶原油速度增長。

雷斯塔能源公司預計，到那時，巴西將是全球最大的深水產油國，其原油日產量將接近500萬桶。 

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網

原文如下：

Guyana on track to become second largest deepwater producer in the world, says Rystad Energy

Authorities in Guyana say the country is committed to supporting an aggressive exploration and production programme off of its coast since it sees revenues coming in from the oil and gas sector as playing a key role in the transformation of the South American nation.

And according to Norway-based Rystad Energy, that may very well be the case. But it isn’t just the likely longevity of Guyana’s oil industry that is striking. It is also that, while Guyana’s production grows in the 2030s, most leading offshore deepwater producers will see their production levels wane.

This is according to analysis from Sofia Forestieri, Latin America analyst for Rystad Energy, during the Caribbean Oil & Gas Virtual Summit last week.

During her presentation of the Caribbean oil & gas industry’s competitive landscape, Forestieri compared the prospects of Guyana and Suriname to the leading deepwater producers around the world, including countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, Mexico and the United States.

She said, “As projects come online, we see Guyana and Suriname ramping up production in a very important, very successful way.”

Guyana’s deepwater development projects at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block will reach a combined capacity of 340,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year.

Forestieri explains that by 2031, the country is expected to soar beyond one million barrels per day, already overtaking Norway and Angola to be the third largest deepwater producer in the world.

“By 2033, we see Guyana overcoming the US Gulf of Mexico’s output and becoming the second largest deepwater crude producer in the world,” the analyst said.

By then, Rystad Energy also projects that all but three deepwater producers will have production levels below a million barrels a day. In 2035, where the projection ends, Guyana is still shooting upward at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

The only deepwater producer Rystad Energy expects to be above Guyana by then is Brazil, with close to 5 million barrels of oil per day.