據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年4月5日報(bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司宣布，該公司日前大幅上調(diào)了本季度布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測。

在本周提交給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司的分析師們表示，他們現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)，今年布倫特原油的均價(jià)將達(dá)到每桶100美元，2023年為90美元。 這標(biāo)志著該公司如今對(duì)2022年和2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測每桶分別上漲了18美元和7美元。  

惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司分析師們在報(bào)告中表示，“正如我們預(yù)期的那樣，制裁在很大程度上避開了石油和天然氣貿(mào)易，但出口中斷的程度似乎比我們之前預(yù)測的更大、更持久，這主要是因?yàn)槲鞣街饕凸驹趬毫ο逻M(jìn)行了‘自我制裁’”。

“因此，我們本月下調(diào)了對(duì)出口大國石油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測，這將影響全球供應(yīng)。 我們現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)，今年日產(chǎn)量將同比減少98.3萬桶，而此前我們預(yù)測的日產(chǎn)量增幅為69.2萬桶。 這在很大程度上抹去了我們預(yù)計(jì)今年將出現(xiàn)的全球貿(mào)易順差，表明市場平衡趨緊，價(jià)格上行壓力更持久。”

在報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和行業(yè)研究公司分析師們指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然“非常高”，但現(xiàn)在在上下波動(dòng)之間的權(quán)重更均衡了。 分析師們概述稱，在不確定性上升和消息快速流動(dòng)的情況下，油價(jià)可能仍會(huì)“極度波動(dòng)”。

分析師們在報(bào)告中表示：“此外，大幅而頻繁的價(jià)格波動(dòng)正在為交易創(chuàng)造具有挑戰(zhàn)性的條件，對(duì)布倫特原油的未平倉頭寸跌至7年來的最低水平。”

“目前投機(jī)性倉位顯示市場存在高度不確定性，而流動(dòng)性減弱只會(huì)在短期內(nèi)加劇波動(dòng)性。”分析師們補(bǔ)充稱。

在3月1日每桶100.85美元、8日每桶127.98美元、16日每桶98.02美元、25日每桶120.65美元、4月1日每桶107.67美元的布倫特原油價(jià)格在最近幾周內(nèi)一直處于震蕩狀態(tài)。在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格為每桶108.38美元。  

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Makes Large Oil Price Revision

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has announced that it has made a large upward revision to its Brent crude price forecast this quarter.

In a new report sent to Rigzone this week, analysts at the company said they now expect prices to average $100 per barrel in 2022 and $90 per barrel in 2023. This marks an $18 rise from the company’s previous 2022 forecast and a $7 rise from its previous 2023 forecast.

“While sanctions have largely shied away from oil and gas trade, as we had anticipated, export disruptions look to be more substantial and more sustained than we had previously forecast, not least due to ‘self-sanctioning’ by major Western oil companies, under pressure to disengage from Moscow,” Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts stated in the report.

“As a result, we decreased our Russian oil production forecast this month, impacting global supply. We now expect output to contract by 983,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2022, compared to the 692,000 barrels per day of growth we had forecast previously. This has largely erased the global surplus we had expected to emerge this year, signaling a tighter market balance and more persistent upward price pressures,” the analysts added.

In the report, the analysts noted that risks to the outlook remain “extremely elevated” but are now more evenly weighted between the upside and down. The analysts outlined that prices are likely to remain “extremely volatile” amid elevated uncertainty and rapid news flow.

“Moreover, large and frequent price swings are creating challenging conditions in which to trade, with open interest in Brent slumping to its lowest levels in seven years,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Current speculative positioning points to a high degree of uncertainty in the market, while weaker liquidity will only exacerbate the volatility in the near term,” the analysts added.

Brent prices have oscillated in recent weeks, closing at $100.85 per barrel on March 1, $127.98 per barrel on March 8, $98.02 per barrel on March 16, $120.65 per barrel on March 25, and $107.67 per barrel on April 1. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $108.38 per barrel.