據美國彭博新聞社2022年4月18日報道,美國天然氣價格飆升至13年來高位,國內強勁的需求考驗著美國頁巖氣鉆井商擴大供應的能力。
紐約天然氣期貨價格4月18日一度上漲4.8%,至每百萬英熱單位7.652美元,超過1月份的做空擠壓漲幅,比年初水平約翻了一倍。
天然氣價格上一次達到如此高位是在2008年,當時颶風威脅著墨西哥灣的海上天然氣平臺,炎熱的夏季天氣推高了空調用電需求。 當時,在歷史性的全球金融危機到來之前,更廣泛的經濟前景變得黯淡,價格才開始下跌。
今年天然氣價格上漲是由全球燃料短缺推動的。全球燃料短缺正在波及各個市場,供應商難以應對疫情后的消費激增,軍事沖突進一步加劇了這一局面。 由于頁巖氣儲量豐富,美國天然氣價格一直遠低于歐洲和亞洲,但這一折扣一直在縮小。
地下洞穴的備用天然氣庫存量低于往年同期的正常水平,產量持平。與此同時,美國正在出口所有可能的液化天然氣,以幫助歐洲減少對能源大國供應的依賴。
據美國國家海洋和大氣管理局預測,從4月25日到5月1日,美國北部部分地區的氣溫將低于正常水平。這可能會增加對供熱和發電廠燃料的需求,導致通常在每年這個時候被儲存起來的供應分流。 美國煤炭短缺也推動了天然氣價格上漲,限制了發電企業轉換燃料的能力。
美國能源情報署(EIA)上周公布,截至4月8日當周,美國天然氣庫存增加了150億立方英尺,但不到過去五年平均增幅的一半。 美國天然氣庫存仍比正常水平低18%。
李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社
原文如下:
USA Natural Gas Surges to 13 Year High
U.S. natural gas prices surged to a 13-year high as robust demand tests drillers’ ability to expand supplies.
Futures rose as much as 4.8% to $7.652 per million British thermal units on Monday in New York, topping January’s short squeeze rally and roughly double levels from the start of the year.
The last time prices were this high was 2008, when hurricanes menaced offshore gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and searing summer weather stoked demand for power to run air conditioners. Back then, prices only began to drop when the broader economic outlook turned dark ahead of the historic worldwide financial crisis.
This year’s gas rally has been driven by a global fuel crunch that’s rippling across markets as suppliers struggle to meet a post-pandemic surge in consumption, further exacerbated by war. While U.S. gas prices have remained well below rates in Europe and Asia thanks to a bounty of shale fields, that discount has been shrinking.
Backup inventories held in underground caverns and aquifers are below normal for this time of year and production is holding flat. Meanwhile, the U.S. is exporting every molecule of liquefied natural gas possible to help Europe reduce its reliance on energy supplies.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of the northern U.S. from April 25 to May 1, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That could increase demand for the heating and power-plant fuel, diverting supply that normally goes to storage during this time of year. A shortage of coal in the U.S. has also helped fuel the gas rally, limiting power generators’ ability to switch fuels.
Inventories grew by 15 billion cubic feet in the week ended April 8, less than half the average gain for the period over the past five years, the Energy Information Administration said last week. Stockpiles remain almost 18% below usual levels.
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