美國頁巖行業(yè)的重點是在2022年向股東返還資本 

德勤：僅2022年頁巖氣區(qū)塊就將獲得總計1720億美元巨額自由現(xiàn)金流 

幾家大型頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商不會在2022年增加產(chǎn)量 

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)5月8日報道，多年來，美國頁巖行業(yè)投入大量資金來提高產(chǎn)量，從而壓低了油價。在疫情造成的暴跌中，美國頁巖行業(yè)憑借堅定的資本紀律，加上油價在100美元以上，為美國石油生產(chǎn)商帶來了創(chuàng)紀錄的現(xiàn)金流。最大的頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)將多年的現(xiàn)金流失歷史拋在腦后，專注于將幾個月來創(chuàng)紀錄的現(xiàn)金流返還給股東。最近，上市公司在公布第一季度數(shù)據(jù)時表示，開發(fā)新鉆井已不再是頁巖氣開采的主要目標，它們將繼續(xù)嚴格控制支出，只會有溫和的產(chǎn)量增長。

而投資者也獲取了相應回報——截至目前，標準普爾500指數(shù)年回報率最高的20家公司中，大多數(shù)是石油公司，包括西方石油公司、Coterra Energy、瓦萊羅能源公司、馬拉松石油公司、阿帕奇公司、哈里伯頓公司、戴文能源公司、赫斯公司、馬拉松原油公司、埃克森美孚公司、康菲石油公司、雪佛龍公司、斯倫貝謝公司、依歐格資源公司、先鋒自然資源公司。

彭博社援引德勤的估計，由于2014年以來的最高油價和資本支出紀律，頁巖領(lǐng)域有望在2022年獲得總計1720億美元的巨額自由現(xiàn)金流。而據(jù)德勤早前估計，截至2020年，頁巖油氣行業(yè)自第一次頁巖氣繁榮以來的15年里，凈負現(xiàn)金流已達3000億美元。

與之前的經(jīng)濟增長周期不同，美國生產(chǎn)商目前正將創(chuàng)紀錄的現(xiàn)金流的很大一部分用于提高股東回報，包括更高的股息、特別股息和股票回購。

在本周的第一季度財報電話會議上，大多數(shù)公共頁巖油氣生產(chǎn)商的高管表示，美國生產(chǎn)商不打算放棄新制定的資本規(guī)則，只會適度增加產(chǎn)量。許多公司承認，供應鏈、通貨膨脹和勞動力限制可能導致美國石油產(chǎn)量增長放緩，低于EIA和分析師的預期。此外，政府僅呼吁短期增產(chǎn)，令投資者憂心忡忡，因此前對石油業(yè)的負面評論削弱了石油公司的知名度，也削弱了它們計劃在中期增加投資的意愿。

Diamondback Energy的首席執(zhí)行官Travis Stice在本周的財報電話會議上說：“坦率地說，政府的言論肯定會給市場帶來很多不確定性，無論是在監(jiān)管稅收、立法方面，還是對我們行業(yè)的負面言論。這給我們的所有者和股東帶來了不確定性，也給我們這個行業(yè)的未來到底是什么打上了問號。”

Stice表示，Diamondback Energy將保持目前22萬桶/天的石油生產(chǎn)水平。

他補充稱：“盡管我們相信，從長期來看，生產(chǎn)基地的有效增長是可以實現(xiàn)的，但我們認為，現(xiàn)在不是開始支出美元的合適時機，因為這些支出無法在今后多個季度實現(xiàn)增產(chǎn)。”

另一家能源公司戴文能源第一季度實現(xiàn)了13億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流，是有史以來最高的季度自由現(xiàn)金流。

首席財務官Jeff Ritenour表示：“隨著自由現(xiàn)金流的增加，我們的首要任務是加快向股東返還資本。”

大陸資源公司首席財務官John Hart在宣布連續(xù)第五次增加季度派息時表示，大陸資源在一季度實現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀錄的每股收益，同時還產(chǎn)生了額外的自由現(xiàn)金流。

切薩皮克在2020年經(jīng)歷了破產(chǎn)，第一季度調(diào)整后的自由現(xiàn)金流為5.32億美元，是有史以來最高的季度自由現(xiàn)金流，并啟動了10億美元的股票和認股權(quán)回購計劃。

先鋒自然資源公司席執(zhí)行官斯科特?謝菲爾德表示，該公司將把第一季度23億美元自由現(xiàn)金流中的88%返還給股東，同時將石油產(chǎn)量增幅保持在5%。

謝菲爾德早在2月份就表示：“無論油價是150美元、200美元還是100美元，我們都不會改變我們的增長計劃。”

謝菲爾德在本周的財報電話會議上表示，美國頁巖油的增長可能低于EIA和其他分析師的預期，這將給油價帶來上行壓力。

援引路透社消息，謝菲爾德表示：“目前遇到的阻力是勞動力短缺、壓裂車隊減少和通貨膨脹，我只是認為要達到預期的產(chǎn)量將會很困難。這甚至讓我更加看好一些現(xiàn)有的油價數(shù)據(jù)。”

謝菲爾德預計，今年美國石油產(chǎn)量將增長50萬～60萬桶/天，而EIA和其他機構(gòu)預計為80萬～100萬桶/天。

除了經(jīng)營約束和資本約束外，行業(yè)對政府的失望情緒也在作怪。生產(chǎn)商稱，政府將汽油價格升至八年來最高的原因歸咎于石油公司，并呼吁短期內(nèi)增產(chǎn)。民主黨議員上周甚至表示，他們將提議立法，允許州和聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)“追查”石油公司。參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖將石油公司比作“禿鷲”，記錄了創(chuàng)紀錄的利潤，利用新冠疫情和地緣政治沖突操縱市場。

這是一種混雜的信息。美國石油學會總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官Mike Sommers本周表示：“我們不能將石油和天然氣行業(yè)視為一種隨政治時刻而開或關(guān)的開關(guān)。”

薩默斯補充說：“說得好像我們幾乎不再需要石油或天然氣了，這很容易，也很時髦。但隨后，混亂發(fā)生了，每個人再一次都在盯著真相。現(xiàn)在，一些政策制定者突然想再次打開開關(guān)，但只是短期的。隨著現(xiàn)實凸顯，我們從華盛頓聽到的大多是推卸責任和借口。”

季廷偉 摘譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Swings From Losses To Record Cash Flows

U.S. shale focuses on returning capital to shareholders in 2022.

Deloitte: the shale patch is on track for massive free cash flows of a combined $172 billion in 2022 alone.

Several large shale producers aren’t boosting production in 2022.

After years of plowing money into boosting production and thus depressing oil prices, the U.S. shale patch emerged from the pandemic-inflicted slump with unwavering capital discipline which, combined with $100+ oil, is paying off with record cash flows for American oil producers. The largest shale producers have left years of bleeding cash behind, focusing on returning capital to shareholders from the record cash flows they have been generating for several months now. As they report first-quarter figures these days, public companies vow continued disciplined spending and only modest production growth as “drill, baby, drill” is no longer shale’s primary goal. 

Investors, in turn, are rewarding the discipline—most of the 20 top-returning firms in the S&P 500 year to date are oil companies, including Occidental, Coterra Energy, Valero, Marathon Oil, APA, Halliburton, Devon Energy, Hess Corporation, Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Schlumberger, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources. 

As a result of the highest oil prices since 2014 and capex discipline, the shale patch is on track for massive free cash flows of a combined $172 billion in 2022 alone, per Deloitte estimates cited by Bloomberg. By 2020, the shale industry had booked $300 billion in net negative cash flow in the 15 years since the first shale boom, Deloitte estimated back then.

Unlike in the previous upcycles, U.S. producers are now directing a large part of the record cash flows to boost shareholder returns with higher dividends, special dividends, and share buybacks. 

U.S. producers do not plan to abandon the newly-found capital discipline and will grow production only modestly, the top executives at most public shale producers said during the Q1 earnings calls this week. Many firms acknowledged the supply chain, inflationary, and labor constraints that could result in slower American oil production growth than the increase the EIA and analysts expect. Producers are also wary of the Administration’s calls for only a short-term ramp-up in production amid otherwise negative comments on the oil industry, which undermines the firms’ visibility and willingness to plan higher investments in the medium term.  

“To say bluntly, the Administration's comments are certainly causing a lot of uncertainty in the market, both in the terms of regulatory taxation, legislation, and negative rhetoric toward our industry. And that creates uncertainty in our owners', our shareholders' minds about what the future of this industry really is,” Diamondback Energy’s CEO Travis Stice said on the earnings call this week. 

Diamondback Energy will keep its current oil production levels of 220,000 net barrels of oil per day, Stice said.

“While we believe that efficiently growing our production base is achievable over the long term, we do not feel that today is the appropriate time to begin spending dollars that would not equate to additional barrels into multiple quarters from now,” he added. 

Another producer, Devon Energy generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow for the first quarter, its highest-ever quarterly FCF.  

“With this increasing amount of free cash flow, our top priority is to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders,” CFO Jeff Ritenour said.

Continental Resources “delivered a record quarter of adjusted earnings per share and exceptional free cash flow generation,” CFO John Hart said as the shale giant announced a fifth consecutive increase to quarterly dividend.

Chesapeake Energy, which went through a bankruptcy during 2020, reported $532 million in adjusted free cash flow for Q1, its highest quarterly FCF ever, and launched a $1-billion share and warrant repurchase program. 

Pioneer Natural Resources, for its part, will be returning 88% of its first-quarter free cash flow of $2.3 billion to shareholders, while keeping disciplined oil growth of up to 5%, CEO Scott Sheffield said. 

It was Sheffield who said as early as in February: “Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans.” 

In Pioneer’s earnings call this week, Sheffield said that U.S. shale would likely grow less than the EIA and other analysts expect, which would put upward pressure on oil prices. 

“What’s happening now in regard to labor constraints, frack fleet constraints, inflation constraints - I just think it’s going to be tough to hit some of the numbers. It even makes me even more bullish about some of the oil price numbers that are out there,” Sheffield said, as carried by Reuters. 

Sheffield sees U.S. oil production growing by 500,000 bpd-600,000 bpd this year, compared to EIA and other estimates of 800,000 bpd-1 million bpd growth. 

Added to operational constraints and capital discipline is the industry’s frustration with the Administration, which producers say has singled out oil firms to blame for the highest gasoline prices in eight years, while calling for a short-term jump in production. Democratic lawmakers even said last week they would propose legislation to allow state and federal agencies to “go after” oil companies. Senate Majority Leader compared oil firms to “vultures” booking record profits and using the COVID and tragedies for market manipulation.

“Talk about mixed messages. We can’t treat the oil and natural gas industry as a kind of light switch that is turned on or off to suit the political moment,” American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers said this week. 

“It can be easy and fashionable to speak as if we hardly even need oil or natural gas anymore. But then disruptions occur, and once again everybody is staring down the truth. Now, suddenly, some policymakers want to flip the switch “on” again, but only for a short time. And as practical realities intrude, mostly what we hear from Washington is blame-shifting and excuses,” Sommers added.