高企的碳氫化合物價格使可再生能源對發電更具吸引力 

LCOE報告，風能和光伏發電的成本仍然低于化石燃料替代品  

碳氫化合物成本的上漲已經超過了可再生能源材料和安裝成本的增長 

據油價網5月22日報道，隨著能源轉型的全面展開，新能源研究機構彭博新能源財經（BloombergNEF）估計，在未來30年，全球轉型將需要大約173萬億美元的能源供應和基礎設施投資，預計到2050年，可再生能源將滿足我們85%的能源需求。BNEF預計，到2030年，電池行業的鋰和鎳消費量將至少達到目前水平的5倍。與此同時，用于多種電池類型的鈷的需求將躍升約70%。銅、錳、鐵、磷和石墨等各種電動汽車和電池大宗商品的需求將急劇上升，這些都是清潔能源技術所需的，也是擴大電網所需的。

不幸的是，可再生能源所需的大宗商品價格不斷上漲，以及供應鏈的大規模中斷，已經增加了建立新的綠色能源項目的成本，這可能會放慢轉型的步伐。

這種趨勢是有問題的，原因很簡單，成本下降是清潔能源繁榮的主要推動力。

在過去的十年中，太陽能發電的價格下降了89%，而陸上風力發電的價格下降了70%。

與此同時，電動汽車電池價格的迅速下降也在推動電動汽車成為主流方面發揮了重要作用。據彭博社報道，在過去的十年中，電動汽車電池的價格已經從每千瓦時1200美元下降到2020年的137美元。對于一個50千瓦時電池組的電動汽車來說，這相當于節省了4.3萬美元的實際成本。

但更重要的是，如今居高不下的天然氣和煤炭價格幫助可再生能源保住了全球最便宜的新發電選擇的桂冠——盡管設備和材料成本不斷上漲。

根據西班牙開發商Acciona Energia通過能源情報的說法，“對可再生能源的需求依然強勁，因為它們比化石燃料更具競爭力”。

比石油和天然氣便宜

能源情報的高級記者Philippe Roos在《最低能源成本報告》中分析了美國、西歐、日本、中東和亞洲發展中國家等5個地區的傳統和可再生發電的發電成本，也被稱為能源均衡成本(LCOE)。這些數據還包括中東和亞洲發展中國家石油、天然氣和煤炭的盈虧平衡價格，是基于能源情報專有的LCOE模型得出的。

能源情報的研究表明，可再生能源在成本效益方面可能已經永久性地超過天然氣，而對最低成本的競爭主要仍在太陽能光伏和陸上風能之間進行。即使在日本，這種趨勢也是真實的。在日本，房地產的稀缺阻礙了土地密集型可再生能源的發展，陸上風能超過了煤炭，光伏取代了天然氣。

根據LCOE的報告，“風能和光伏發電的成本仍然低于化石燃料替代品，尤其是在當前天然氣和煤炭價格高企的情況下”，鑒于供應鏈問題同樣困擾著這兩個行業，可再生能源技術仍然是最便宜的。

而且，即使天然氣價格下降，也只是在一定程度上讓化石燃料更接近可再生能源。然而，這種情況目前看來不太可能發生。

但目前的跡象表明，化石燃料的高價格將持續很長一段時間。道達爾能源首席執行官潘彥磊最近表示，該公司可能會將歐洲天然氣的長期價格預期從5美元/百萬英熱單位左右調整為10美元/百萬英熱單位左右。

季廷偉 摘譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Renewables Remain ‘Cheap’ Despite Supply Chain Chaos

High hydrocarbon prices make renewables more attractive for power generation.

LCOE report: “wind and PV generation costs remain lower than fossil fuel alternatives.

Rising costs of hydrocarbons have outpaced growing material and installation costs for renewables.

With the energy transition in full swing, new energy research provider BloombergNEF estimates that the global transition will require ~$173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, with renewable energy expected to provide 85% of our energy needs by 2050. BNEF projects that by 2030, consumption of lithium and nickel by the battery sector will be at least 5x current levels. Meanwhile, demand for cobalt, used in many battery types, will jump by about 70%. Diverse EV and battery commodities such as copper, manganese, iron, phosphorus, and graphite--all of which are needed in clean energy technologies and are required to expand electricity grids--will see sharp spikes in demand. 

Unfortunately, rising prices of the commodities needed for renewable energy as well as massive supply chain disruptions have been increasing the costs of setting up new green power projects, which could slow down the pace of the transition. 

This trend is problematic for the simple reason that falling costs have been the major driving force for the clean energy boom.

Over the past decade, the price of solar electricity dropped 89%, while the price of onshore wind fell by 70%.

Meanwhile, rapidly falling EV battery prices have played a big role in helping electric vehicles go mainstream. As per Bloomberg, over the past decade, EV battery prices have fallen from almost $1,200 per kilowatt-hour to just $137/kWh in 2020. For an EV with a 50 kWh battery pack, that adds up to savings of more than $43,000 in real terms.

But here’s the kicker: today’s stratospheric gas and coal prices have helped renewables retain their crown as the cheapest option for new power generation across the globe--despite rising equipment and materials costs.

According to Spanish developer Acciona Energia via Energy Intelligence, ‘‘the appetite for renewables remains strong as they are "massively" more competitive than fossil fuels.’’

Cheaper than oil and gas

In its lowest Energy Cost Report, Energy Intelligence’s senior reporter Philippe Roos has analyzed the the cost of generating electricity, also known as levelized cost of energy (LCOE), of conventional and renewable forms of electricity generation in five regions: the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, the Mideast and developing Asia. The data, which also include break-even prices for oil, gas and coal in the Mideast and developing Asia, is based on Energy Intelligence’s proprietary LCOE model. 

he EI study reveals that renewables have probably overtaken gas permanently on cost-effectiveness, with the race for lowest cost remaining mostly between solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind. This trend rings true even in Japan, where the scarcity of real estate handicaps land-intensive renewables, onshore wind beats coal and PV displaces gas.

According to the LCOE report, “wind and PV generation costs remain lower than fossil fuel alternatives, especially with current high gas and coal prices”, and with supply chain issues troubling both sectors equally, renewable technologies are still the cheapest.  

And even if gas prices fall, it will at this point only partly bring fossil fuels closer to par with renewables. That scenario, however, doesn’t look likely at this time. 

But current indications are that high fossil fuel prices are here for the long-haul: TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) CEO Patrick Pouyanne recently said that the company might change its long-term gas price assumption in Europe from around $5/MMBtu to around $10/MMBtu.