高盛銀行將布倫特原油的短期目標(biāo)價從每桶125美元上調(diào)至140美元

市場需求的復(fù)蘇和主力產(chǎn)油國產(chǎn)量的潛在下降可能會進一步推高油價

高盛銀行認(rèn)為全球石油市場仍處于結(jié)構(gòu)性赤字，需要油價大幅上漲才能恢復(fù)平衡

據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)6月7日報道，高盛銀行本周將布倫特原油的短期目標(biāo)價從每桶125美元上調(diào)至140美元，稱結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺問題迄今尚未解決。 

在美國金融網(wǎng)站Zero Hedge發(fā)布的一份報告中，這家美國著名投行的能源研究大宗商品主管達米安·庫爾瓦林指出，今年早些時候，石油供需出現(xiàn)了短暫的平衡，產(chǎn)油大國出口的降幅相對較小，戰(zhàn)略石油儲備出現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的下降。

不過，這位分析師在這份報告中也指出，在短暫的平衡期過后，市場需求已經(jīng)開始復(fù)蘇，供需短暫平衡的情況已經(jīng)結(jié)束。 另一方面，據(jù)庫爾瓦林稱，大國石油日產(chǎn)量可能再下降50萬桶。

彭博新聞社報道稱，根據(jù)作者的說法，布倫特原油價格需要在從7月開始的12個月里達到平均每桶135美元，全球原油庫存才能在2023年底前恢復(fù)到正常水平。  

高盛銀行表示，其結(jié)果是，全球石油市場仍處于結(jié)構(gòu)性赤字狀態(tài)，需要大幅上漲的油價才能恢復(fù)平衡。

上周，隨著歐佩克+決定在每月增產(chǎn)20多萬桶的基礎(chǔ)上增加產(chǎn)量，油價非但沒有下跌，反而上漲了，這一結(jié)構(gòu)性赤字的嚴(yán)重程度已經(jīng)很明顯了。  

造成這種市場如此反應(yīng)的一個原因是，實際上很少有歐佩克成員國有多余的產(chǎn)能來增加產(chǎn)量，超過目前的產(chǎn)量，有幾個重要成員國都在努力達到目前的配額，更不用說提高配額了。另一個原因是，盡管價格上漲，但需求似乎確實依然強勁，正如高盛銀行的庫爾瓦林所指出的那樣，這表明價格需要繼續(xù)上漲，才能開始對需求產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性影響。

花旗銀行本周也上調(diào)了油價預(yù)期。在一片看漲聲中罕見看跌的花旗銀行提出了修訂油價預(yù)期的依據(jù)。  

花旗銀行分析師表示：“由于供需平衡逐漸放松，我們繼續(xù)認(rèn)為，在經(jīng)歷了短期的飆升之后，原油價格將出現(xiàn)下降趨勢。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Now Sees Oil Hitting $140 This Summer

·     Goldman Sachs raised its short-term target for Brent crude from $125 to $140.

·     Recovery in market demand and a potential drop in production may further lift prices.

·     Goldman: the global oil market remains in a structural deficit and would need much higher prices to regain its balance.

Goldman Sachs this week raised its price target for Brent crude to $140 per barrel from $125 per barrel, citing unresolved structural shortages.

Per a ZeroHedge report, the investment bank's commodity head of energy research, Damien Courvalin, noted the brief period of balance in oil earlier this year, the relatively insignificant reduction in Russian exports and the record drawdowns from strategic petroleum reserves.

After that brief period of balance, however, is ending already, the analyst also noted in a note, as demand is already recovering. On the other hand,oil production could fall by another half a million barrels daily, according to Courvalin.

According to the authors of the note, Brent crude would need to average $135 per barrel in the 12 months beginning July for global stocks of the commodity to recover to normal levels by the end f 2023, Bloomberg reported.

As a result, the global oil market remains in a structural deficit and would need much higher prices to regain its balance, according to the investment bank.

Just how serious this structural deficit appears to be was made very clear last week when, following OPEC+'s decision to add more barrels to its monthly production boost—over 200,000 bpd more barrels—oil prices rose, rather than falling.

One reason for this market reaction was the fact that few OPEC members actually have the spare capacity to increase production by more than they are currently pumping, with several large members struggling to hit their current quotas, let alone boost them.

Another was that demand indeed appears to still be strong despite the rally in prices, suggesting, as Goldman's Courvalin noted, that prices need to go higher in order to start affecting demand in any meaningful way.

Citi also revised upwards its oil price forecast this week. A rare bear among bulls, Citi cited a new reason as the basis for its revision.

"We continue to see a downward trend to prices after a spiky near-term period, on progressively loosening supply-demand balances," the bank's analysts said.