歐佩克技術(shù)委員會(huì)已將今年全球石油日需求預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)20萬(wàn)桶  

歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油日需求將增加340萬(wàn)桶  

歐佩克+預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)在本周四舉行的會(huì)議上大幅提高產(chǎn)量上限 

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，能源情報(bào)網(wǎng)表示，在周四的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟會(huì)議召開(kāi)之前，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的技術(shù)委員會(huì)將今年全球石油日需求預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)20萬(wàn)桶。  

歐佩克周三表示，在聯(lián)合部長(zhǎng)級(jí)監(jiān)督委員會(huì)(JMMC)周四召開(kāi)會(huì)議之前，聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(huì)(JTC)6月1日舉行了定期會(huì)議，審查石油市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展情況，隨后歐佩克+部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議將舉行，但沒(méi)有提供討論的細(xì)節(jié)。 

根據(jù)JTC審查的一份報(bào)告，今年全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將日增340萬(wàn)桶，地緣政治局勢(shì)和疫情的發(fā)展被認(rèn)為是預(yù)測(cè)的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

5月份，歐佩克連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下調(diào)其對(duì)今年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。歐佩克在5月中旬說(shuō)，全球石油日需求增長(zhǎng)將比4月份報(bào)告中的預(yù)期減少31萬(wàn)桶。

歐佩克+將于周四召開(kāi)會(huì)議，外界普遍預(yù)計(jì)該組織將在決定7月份產(chǎn)量水平時(shí)批準(zhǔn)石油產(chǎn)量的溫和月度增長(zhǎng)。盡管歐盟禁止從大國(guó)進(jìn)口大部分石油，但根據(jù)過(guò)去幾天的大量報(bào)道，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟不太可能超出計(jì)劃的增產(chǎn)配額。

《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》6月1日援引歐佩克代表的話報(bào)道說(shuō)，部分成員國(guó)正在考慮將大國(guó)排除在限制各成員國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的歐佩克+協(xié)議之外的可能性。

暫停大國(guó)在歐佩克+中的角色可能會(huì)讓其他成員國(guó)以更快的速度提高石油產(chǎn)量，盡管只有少數(shù)歐佩克成員國(guó)被認(rèn)為有能力在當(dāng)前協(xié)議允許的范圍內(nèi)盡快提高產(chǎn)量。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast For This Year

OPEC's technical panel has cut the oil demand forecast by 200,000 bpd for 2022.

OPEC now sees global demand grow by 3.4 million bpd this year.

OPEC+ is not expected to significantly raise its production cap at its meeting this Thursday.

The technical panel of the OPEC+ group has reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2022 by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) ahead of the alliance’s meeting on Thursday, Energy Intelligence reports.

The Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held its regular meeting today to review oil market developments ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) that would be followed by the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, OPEC said on Wednesday, without providing details of the discussions.

According to a report for the JTC to review, global oil demand is now expected to grow by 3.4 million bpd this year, with the geopolitical situation and COVID developments cited as key risks to the forecast, Energy Intelligence reports.

Last month, OPEC revised down its global oil demand growth estimate for 2022 a second month running. OPEC said in the middle of May that oil demand would grow by 310,000 fewer barrels per day than the growth anticipated in the April report.

OPEC+ meets on Thursday, and it is widely expected to rubberstamp its moderate monthly increases in oil production when it decides output levels for July. Despite the EU ban on most the world’s largest oil producer's oil imports, the alliance is unlikely to increase production quotas more than planned, according to numerous reports of the past few days.

Some OPEC members are mulling over the possibility of suspending the world’s largest oil producer from the OPEC+ deal that limits the amount of crude oil that each member can produce, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing OPEC delegates.

Suspending the world’s largest oil producer’s role in the group could allow other members to increase oil production at a quicker pace—although there are only a few OPEC members believed to have the capacity to ramp up production as quickly as the current deal allows.