據(jù)國(guó)際可再生能源署網(wǎng)站7月13日阿聯(lián)酋阿布扎比報(bào)道，IRENA的最新報(bào)告顯示，2021新增的近三分之二的可再生能源成本低于G20國(guó)家中最便宜的燃煤能源電力成本。2021年可再生能源成本繼續(xù)下降，因?yàn)楣?yīng)鏈挑戰(zhàn)和商品價(jià)格上漲尚未充分顯示其對(duì)項(xiàng)目成本的影響。與2020年相比，陸上風(fēng)電成本下降了15%，海上風(fēng)電成本下降了13%，太陽(yáng)能光伏成本下降了13%。

國(guó)際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IRENA）今天發(fā)布的《2021可再生能源發(fā)電成本》顯示，2021新增可再生能源裝機(jī)中，有近三分之二或163吉瓦（GW）的成本低于G20中世界上最便宜的燃煤發(fā)電方案。IRENA估計(jì)，考慮到當(dāng)前高漲的化石燃料價(jià)格，2021新增的可再生能源將為2022年的全球發(fā)電成本節(jié)省約550億美元。

IRENA的新報(bào)告確認(rèn)了具有價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的可再生能源在解決當(dāng)今能源和氣候緊急情況方面發(fā)揮的關(guān)鍵作用，即向根據(jù)1.5℃的升溫限度和《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)加快過(guò)渡。太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的項(xiàng)目交付周期相對(duì)較短，是各國(guó)努力迅速減少并最終淘汰化石燃料以及限制其造成的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)損害以實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放的重要支柱。

IRENA總干事Francesco La Camera表示：“可再生能源是目前為止最廉價(jià)的能源，2022年是一個(gè)鮮明的例子，說(shuō)明了新的可再生能源發(fā)電在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的可行性。可再生能源使經(jīng)濟(jì)體擺脫了化石燃料價(jià)格和進(jìn)口的波動(dòng)，抑制了能源成本，提高了市場(chǎng)彈性——如果今天的能源緊縮持續(xù)下去，效果更為顯著。”

“雖然在當(dāng)前形勢(shì)下，可能需要臨時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)，但從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，軟化氣候目標(biāo)的借口是站不住腳的。如今迫切的能源局勢(shì)警醒了所有人，即可再生能源和節(jié)能是未來(lái)。隨著埃及COP27和阿聯(lián)酋COP28的召開(kāi)，可再生能源為各國(guó)政府提供了負(fù)擔(dān)得起的能源，來(lái)使其能實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放目標(biāo)，并改善其氣候。”他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)道，“我們將采取具體行動(dòng)，為當(dāng)?shù)厝嗣駧?lái)真正的利益。”

正如IRENA的成本數(shù)據(jù)所強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣，可再生能源投資在2022年繼續(xù)產(chǎn)生巨大的回報(bào)。在非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家，2021年增加的109吉瓦可再生能源的成本低于最便宜的新增化石能源電力成本，并在未來(lái)25至30年內(nèi)，每年還將至少減少57億美元的成本。

2021年和2022年煤炭和化石氣價(jià)格居高不下，也將嚴(yán)重削弱化石燃料的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，使太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能更具吸引力。例如，隨著歐洲化石天然氣價(jià)格空前飆升，歐洲化石天然氣發(fā)電在其生命周期內(nèi)帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益將不斷降低，從而增加資產(chǎn)擱淺的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

歐洲的例子表明，現(xiàn)有天然氣發(fā)電廠在2022年的燃料和二氧化碳成本可能平均高出2021年投產(chǎn)的新太陽(yáng)能光伏和陸上風(fēng)電的壽命成本的4到6倍。2022年1月至5月，太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)力發(fā)電可能為歐洲節(jié)省了不低于500億美元的化石燃料進(jìn)口，其中以化石燃?xì)鉃橹鳌?/p>

至于供應(yīng)鏈方面，IRENA的數(shù)據(jù)表明，并非所有材料成本的增加都已轉(zhuǎn)化為設(shè)備價(jià)格和項(xiàng)目成本。如果原材料成本繼續(xù)升高，2022年的商品價(jià)格壓力將更加明顯。然而，與更高的化石燃料價(jià)格相比，這一上漲對(duì)于具有價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的可再生能源的整體收益而言是微不足道的。

梁金燕 編譯自 國(guó)際可再生能源署網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Renewable Power Remains Cost-Competitive amid Fossil Fuel Crisis

New IRENA report shows almost two-thirds of renewable power added in 2021 had lower costs than the cheapest coal-fired options in G20 countries.

Abu Dhabi, UAE, 13 July 2022 – Costs for renewables continued to fall in 2021 as supply chain challenges and rising commodity prices have yet to show their full impact on project costs. The cost of electricity from onshore wind fell by 15%, offshore wind by 13% and solar PV by 13% compared to 2020.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) today, shows that almost two-thirds or 163 gigawatts (GW) of newly installed renewable power in 2021 had lower costs than the world’s cheapest coal-fired option in the G20. IRENA estimates that, given the current high fossil fuel prices, the renewable power added in 2021 saves around USD 55 billion from global energy generation costs in 2022.

IRENA’s new report confirms the critical role that cost-competitive renewables play in addressing today’s energy and climate emergencies by accelerating the transition in line with the 1.5°C warming limit and the Paris Agreement goals. Solar and wind energy, with their relatively short project lead times, represent vital planks in countries’ efforts to swiftly reduce, and eventually phase out, fossil fuels and limit the macroeconomic damages they cause in pursuit of net zero.

“Renewables are by far the cheapest form of power today,” Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA said. “2022 is a stark example of just how economically viable new renewable power generation has become. Renewable power frees economies from volatile fossil fuel prices and imports, curbs energy costs and enhances market resilience – even more so if today’s energy crunch continues.”

“While a temporary crisis response might be necessary in the current situation, excuses to soften climate goals will not hold mid-to-long-term. Today’s situation is a devastating reminder that renewables and energy saving are the future. With the COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in the UAE ahead, renewables provide governments with affordable energy to align with net zero and turn their climate promises into concrete action with real benefits for people on the ground,” he added.

Investments in renewables continue to pay huge dividends in 2022, as highlighted by IRENA’s costs data. In non-OECD countries, the 109 GW of renewable energy additions in 2021 that cost less than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired option will reduce costs by at least USD 5.7 billion annually for the next 25-30 years.

High coal and fossil gas prices in 2021 and 2022 will also profoundly deteriorate the competitiveness of fossil fuels and make solar and wind even more attractive. With an unprecedented surge in European fossil gas prices for example, new fossil gas generation in Europe will increasingly become uneconomic over its lifetime, increasing the risk of stranded assets.

The European example shows that fuel and CO2 costs for existing gas plants might average four to six times more in 2022 than the lifetime cost of new solar PV and onshore wind commissioned in 2021. Between January and May 2022, the generation of solar and wind power may have saved Europe fossil fuel imports in the magnitude of no less than USD 50 billion, predominantly fossil gas.

As to supply chains, IRENA’s data suggests that not all materials cost increases have been passed through into equipment prices and project costs yet. If material costs remain elevated, the price pressures in 2022 will be more pronounced. Increases might however be dwarfed by the overall gains of cost-competitive renewables in comparison to higher fossil fuel prices.