據(jù)海上工程師網(wǎng)2022年7月20日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)第3大石油公司康菲公司（大陸菲利普斯公司）首席執(zhí)行官周二警告稱，原油短缺和價(jià)格波動(dòng)迫在眉睫，理由是歐佩克用產(chǎn)能有限，且美國(guó)未來(lái)石油產(chǎn)量增幅放緩。

美國(guó)最大的獨(dú)立石油生產(chǎn)商康菲公司首席執(zhí)行官瑞安·蘭斯在對(duì)石油組織休斯敦生產(chǎn)者論壇成員的講話中對(duì)未來(lái)的全球石油供應(yīng)前景表示悲觀。就在幾天前，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)從沙特阿拉伯回國(guó)，未能就歐佩克+集團(tuán)增加原油產(chǎn)量達(dá)成協(xié)議。

“最終，需求將回到疫情暴發(fā)前的水平”，蘭斯表示，同時(shí)對(duì)歐佩克缺乏額外產(chǎn)能和美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量停滯持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。“全球石油供應(yīng)短缺即將到來(lái)”，蘭斯如是說(shuō)。 

蘭斯說(shuō)，隨著時(shí)間的推移，阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯可能每天增加100萬(wàn)或200萬(wàn)桶石油，但“歐佩克+的其他國(guó)家正在苦苦掙扎”，包括尼日利亞、安哥拉等。

在截至2019年12月的三年中，美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量飆升了400萬(wàn)桶，但現(xiàn)在增長(zhǎng)速度已放緩。 蘭斯說(shuō)：“美國(guó)今年的石油日產(chǎn)量增加將不足100萬(wàn)桶…… 明年我們的產(chǎn)量增加可能會(huì)接近100萬(wàn)桶。但我們已開(kāi)始進(jìn)入穩(wěn)產(chǎn)期。”

他說(shuō)，石油需求最終將超過(guò)疫情前的水平，需求高峰可能還要再過(guò)10到20年。蘭斯補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步波動(dòng)。 

他對(duì)能源聽(tīng)眾表示：“如果你打算進(jìn)入這個(gè)行業(yè)，就要為大量的波動(dòng)做好準(zhǔn)備。”“它會(huì)上升，也會(huì)下降，但不一定是這個(gè)順序。”

李峻 編譯自 海上工程師網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Supply Crunch is Coming, ConocoPhillips CEO Says

ConocoPhillips' chief executive on Tuesday warned of looming crude oil shortages and price volatility, citing limited spare capacity among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and slow U.S. output gains ahead.

Ryan Lance, head of the largest U.S. independent oil producer, offered a dour outlook on future supply in remarks to members of oil group the Houston Producers Forum. His comments came days after U.S. President returned from Saudi Arabia without success in securing an agreement for the OPEC+ group to boost production.

"Ultimately, demand will go back to pre-pandemic levels," Lance said while cautioning about OPEC's lack of additional capacity and a U.S. production plateau. "There is a supply crunch coming," Lance said.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could add 1 million or 2 million barrels per day (bpd) over time, but "the rest of the OPEC+ (alliance) is struggling," including Nigeria, Angola, he said.

U.S. oil production, which soared by 4 million barrels per day in the three years ended December 2019, is expanding more slowly. "The U.S. will grow shy of a million barrels a day this year ... and we'll probably grow close to another million barrels next year. But we start to kind of plateau," he added.

Oil demand ultimately will exceed pre-pandemic levels and peak demand is probably another 10 to 20 years out, he said. Concerns about recession will lead to further market volatility, Lance added.

"If you are going to be in the business, be prepared for a lot of volatility," he told the energy audience. "It's going to go up and it's going to go down, but not necessarily in that order."