在一份7月19日最新發(fā)布的報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)旗下可持續(xù)惠譽(yù)（Sustainable Fitch）指出，石油和天然氣公司正在努力提出可行性轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃，盡管歐洲大型石油公司正在引領(lǐng)轉(zhuǎn)型，但投資者的壓力正在迅速演變，并轉(zhuǎn)向中市值和較低市值能源公司。

能源行業(yè)中化石燃料產(chǎn)品的使用是全球最大溫室氣體排放源之一，也是碳排放最密集的行業(yè)之一。由于全球向低碳世界轉(zhuǎn)型，需求的破壞和脫碳的壓力給油氣行業(yè)帶來(lái)了特有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

大多數(shù)公司還沒(méi)有解決潛在的需求破壞。全球90%的GDP和85%的人口都有自己國(guó)家的凈零政策或目標(biāo)，預(yù)計(jì)這將對(duì)石油和天然氣產(chǎn)品的長(zhǎng)期需求產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。然而，石油和天然氣公司的絕大部分收入仍然來(lái)自化石燃料的生產(chǎn)和銷售，并且在上游生產(chǎn)和勘探方面的投資仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)低碳商業(yè)模式下的資本支出。

新的商業(yè)模式發(fā)展緩慢。歐洲石油巨頭以及一些中低市值能源公司正在增加對(duì)可再生能源和其他替代燃料的投資，而美國(guó)石油巨頭則將重點(diǎn)放在藍(lán)色氫和碳捕獲解決方案（CCS）上，作為可能的新收入來(lái)源。在短期內(nèi)，還沒(méi)有一家油氣公司制定出明確而有力的商業(yè)戰(zhàn)略來(lái)擺脫化石燃料生產(chǎn)。

從石油到天然氣的轉(zhuǎn)變帶來(lái)長(zhǎng)期的不確定性。無(wú)論是大公司還是小公司，都已開(kāi)始大幅從石油轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣生產(chǎn)。天然氣長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直被視為一種“過(guò)渡性燃料”，業(yè)內(nèi)許多人認(rèn)為，在轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源之前，它是一種可行的、長(zhǎng)期的低碳能源來(lái)源，可以從煤炭發(fā)電轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣發(fā)電。煤制氣轉(zhuǎn)型是美國(guó)近幾十年來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)可觀減排的主要原因之一。特別是在新興市場(chǎng)，這是持續(xù)投資天然氣勘探的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因，天然氣需求預(yù)測(cè)繼續(xù)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)幾十年天然氣需求將增加，特別是在亞洲。

李林 譯自 惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)網(wǎng)站

Oil And Gas Companies Struggling to Come up With Credible Transition Plans

European Majors Leading But Investor Pressure Evolving Fast, Turning to Mid-caps, Juniors 

In a new report, Sustainable Fitch reveals that oil and gas companies are struggling to come up with credible transition plans, and that while European majors are leading the transition, investor pressure is evolving fast and turning to mid-caps and juniors. 

The use of the sector’s fossil fuel products is one of the biggest global sources of GHG emissions and it is one of the most emissions-intensive industries. Demand destruction and pressure to decarbonize due to the global transition to a low-carbon worl d present significant and unique risks for the oil and gas industry.

Most Companies Not Yet Addressing Possible Demand Destruction

With 90% of the world’s GDP and 85% of the world’s population covered under some sort of national net zero policy or target, we expect a profound impact on demand for oil and gas products in the long term. However, oil and gas companies still generate the vast majority of revenues from producing and selling fossil fuels and investment in upstream production and exploration remain significantly larger than capex in low-carbon business models.

New Business Models Emerging only Slowly

European majors and some mid-caps and juniors are increasing investments in renewable energy and other alternative fuels while US majors are focusing on blue hydrogen and carbon capture solutions (CCS) as possible new revenue streams. In the short term, no oil and gas company has developed a business strategy that would offer a clear and robust path to shift away from fossil fuel production.

Shift from Oil to Gas Brings Long-Term Uncertainty

Both majors and smaller companies have started to significantly shift from oil to gas production. Gas has long been seen as a ‘bridge fuel’ and many in the industry consider it a viable, long-term option as a lower-carbon energy source to shift from coal electricity generation to gas before making the shift to renewables. The coal-to-gas shift is one of the main reasons why the US has achieved considerable emissions reductions in recent decades. Especially in emerging markets this has been a key reason for continued investment in gas exploration, and gas demand forecasts continue to project increasing demand for gas in the coming decades, especially in Asia.